The analyst community is split in tone but broadly leaning constructive. Technician Jonathan Krinsky flagged that the high-beta momentum factor has seen an unwind sitting among the worst in its history since 1999 — a genuinely historic two-day move — but framed it as rotational for now, with the caveat that a rising correlation index later in the month is worth watching. JP Morgan’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas kept his “blue skies” bullish stance, nudging his target to 7,800, while warning that momentum crowding tied to the second- and third-order AI beneficiaries rivals the peaks of the COVID and dot-com bubbles — high flash-crash risk in that pocket, but not necessarily a broad market crash, with quality growth and the hyperscalers still looking attractive.

On the panels, Richard Saperstein argued the hyperscalers are being wrongly valued as capital-heavy despite accelerating earnings and cloud growth, calling the large-cap names a value opportunity. Liz Thomas leaned toward a narrower broadening into financials and health care rather than an everything-rally, noting health care’s tendency to outperform in a midterm year. Tom Lee sees conditions for an even wider move if a softer bond market turns into a tailwind, while Chris Harvey pointed to laggards and ISM-correlated groups — industrials, financials, tech — as the second-half earnings story, even as he acknowledged it may be time to take a little momentum off the table.

I’ve been studying charts for 32 years now, as you can see week in and week out when I give you levels that’s where price tends to settle for a fight between the bulls and bears.

This week I will give you the outline from my course rules on support and resistance; the same applies for trendlines.

SPX closed the week above its 20 and 50-day moving averages. Next supports: 7,237 (last low), then the Fib levels (horizontal lines), followed by the 100 & 200 DMA. Resistance can be the dotted trendlines and the all-time high. I am noticing we made a short-term lower high, but a higher low — not a lower low — which turns this into a triangle formation.

NASDAQ closed around the 20 and 50-day MA. Next supports: 25,000, followed by the Fib levels (horizontal lines), then the 100 & 200 DMA. Resistance can be found at trendlines and the all-time high. I will note the QQQ found support above the 50 DMA, so keep an eye on both.

DOW made a new all-time high this week and is holding support above the 20 DMA. Resistance is around 53,400 (trendline).

RUT broke its all-time-high resistance trendline dating back to 2000 on May 5 around 2,850. The IWM ETF penetrated its resistance trendline and came back to close at that level, around the 296 area. I am following the small-cap story to get an understanding of risk-on or risk-off.

VIX came back to last week’s low around $15.80.

CL (oil): no support level has held up, but CL is approaching a very interesting level at $62.16, which is a 68% Fib number, and there is trendline support at that level as well.

Gold found some support and closed at its 20-day MA. I also see a death cross took place this week. (3,516.1 is a 38% Fib retracement and 3,350 is a trendline going back 3 years.)

What the Fed will do is the question on the table. Look for my next levels using the purple lines and moving averages. (Note: I am watching yields closely due to all the debt the hyperscalers are issuing as of late.)

Last week I showed you a chart dating back to 2009. Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture to see the bigger picture — and now the trendlines can help you assess real risk better.

The daily chart hit the level I gave almost exactly, $101.797. (Note the inverse correlation between the dollar and gold; as the dollar was going up gold was going down — this week the opposite happened.)

The chart you’re viewing is a 3-year daily chart; the last support dates back to 8/5/2024 at $50,534. We broke the February low. I do see that BTC has been playing the Fib levels nicely. Past indications of a level don’t automatically mean they will hold again. I will be keeping an eye out at the $29,682 level.

Daily futures overview across the commodity complex — see levels on the chart.

A few weeks ago I wrote: “we need to remember software was hit hard this year; if this market turns down then IGV is susceptible to further downside.” That seems to have happened, as IGV corrected from 170 to 85. Next support and resistance are Fib numbers and the moving averages.

My levels weren’t working for Silver; it’s mostly support and resistance lines per prior days and weeks. The prior all-time high for silver was in 2011 around $50.68; the 61% Fib retracement is around $47.31. If those areas don’t hold, the next major support is around $27.

SOX found support at the 50 DMA; next support levels are Fib numbers. Note: last week I noted the SOX making all-time highs but the RSI was not — I saw a divergence. Be cautious, this sector is volatile. That has happened, and you should still look for volatility.

This week I am showing ORCL. Around February I posted a video that ORCL was approaching a major trendline around $136 and a 68% Fib level. The stock shot up to the $247 area and came all the way back; we broke the upward trendline (light-blue dotted line). Let’s see if the Fib level will hold at $132.14. Next support after that level is around $98 and then $74.

Futures on stocks will begin trading on July 27. Here is the list of single-stock futures to trade on the CME:

AAPL, ABBV, ADBE, AMAT, AMD, AMGN, AMZN, AVGO, BA, BAC, BKNG, BRKB, CAT, CMCSA, COP, COST, CRM, CSCO, CVX, DIS, GOOGL, HD, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KO, LLY, LMT, MA, MCD, META, MRK, MSFT, MU, NEM, NFLX, NVDA, ORCL, PANW, PEP, PFE, PG, PLD, PLTR, QCOM, SBUX, SPCX, TSLA, TXN, UNH, V, VZ, WMT, XOM.

Monday (July 6): No scheduled earnings.

Tuesday (July 7): After the close — PENG.

Wednesday (July 8): After the close — LEVI.

Thursday (July 9): Before the open — PEP, BYRN.

Friday (July 10): Before the open — DAL.