A few sector notes worth flagging. The PHLX Semiconductor Index had a bumpy week but is on track for a roughly 9% weekly gain, and it appears to have found support at its 20-day SMA once again. Software stocks remain out of favor; Oracle announced plans to raise funds. Bitcoin added about $150 on the week to $63,825 and importantly held its ground at the 200-week SMA. And again, the S&P Equal Weight and the Russell 2000 broke out to fresh all-time highs on Friday — encouraging technically, provided the breakouts hold.

The most useful framing this week came from a conversation with Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income and head of the Allocation Team. He described the current environment as one of “dynamic patience” — meaning you adapt to the news flow, you manage your risk, you act when things overreact in either direction, and you stay in tune with the two things he thinks are driving everything: technology is changing the world, and compounding income works. Both are simple in theory and hard to actually stick to. The tricky part of this market, in his read, is that rates, equities and gold are all correlating together right now — which means the traditional hedging dynamic isn’t really there, so risk has to be managed differently.

On whether this market is exuberant or worse, he was direct. He has been doing this for four decades and says he has never seen a market driven this hard by momentum — one side of the boat, chasing the theme of the day, and then a rush for the exit when it turns. A meaningful piece of the volatility, he believes, is the “clearing space” that happens ahead of huge equity issuance — Alphabet’s $85 billion raise, META reportedly preparing one, the SpaceX IPO, large convertibles. There is only so much money to go around, and people have had to free up room for the new supply. That is not a bubble dynamic, in his view — that is positioning. And he said the retail cohort is more engaged than ever; IPOs like SpaceX capture the imagination of a whole new set of potential investors, and that cohort, paired with the growth in single-day options, is now driving a lot of the technical action even when the fundamentals don’t move.

On valuation, he was explicit: he does not see Tulip mania in semis or memory. The multiples, in his view, are not exaggerated relative to forward demand and the backlogs the hyperscalers have visible, and tech earnings have been growing 50%+ with the overall earnings picture north of 20%. He thinks tech multiples are fine where they are. The reason he is not yet embracing a broader rotation into small caps is the Fed — the committee is quite hawkish, the new chair has to protect the back end of the curve, and near-term inflation is sticky. Until the Fed pivots toward cuts, he stays anchored in the names that are not interest-rate sensitive — the ones that will keep spending on CapEx, GPUs, memory and compute regardless of where rates print. He also flagged the obvious circularity in that trade — one hyperscaler’s CapEx is another company’s revenue — as the thing worth watching further out.

A couple of things to keep an eye on into next week. Kevin Warsh holds his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair. Market expectations are for no change in policy. But inflation has been heating up over the last couple of months, and if the U.S.–Iran deal stalls and oil reverses, the Fed’s job gets harder. SpaceX has now actually priced and started trading — some of the selling pressure in tech in recent weeks had been attributed to investors raising cash to make room for it, so we will see whether that pressure releases now that the event is behind us.

Here is the bias, stated plainly: follow the market — do not lead it. The cleanest tells right now are the Russell’s behavior at the resistance trendline drawn on the charts, and whether the SPXEW breakout holds. A clear move above the RUT resistance with the SPX still bid would confirm the risk-on broadening read. A failed breakout — RUT pushing back below this week’s high and the SPXEW losing its breakout level — would tilt the picture back toward consolidation or a top. No call on which one we get; let the levels tell the story.

I’ve been studying charts for 32 years now, as you can see week in and week out when I give you levels that’s where price tends to settle for a fight between the bulls and bears.

This week I will give you the outline from my course rules on support and resistance; the same applies for trendlines.

SPX broke the 20-day moving average on the way down. Next support is the 50-day moving average (yellow line), followed by the Fib levels (horizontal lines), then the 100 & 200 DMA. Resistance can be the 20 DMA and trendlines above this week’s close.

NASDAQ broke the 20-day moving average on the way down. Next support is the 50-day MA, followed by the Fib levels (horizontal lines), then the 100 & 200 DMA. Resistance can be found at the 20 DMA and trendlines.

DOW next support can be the 50 DMA, then trendlines or Fib numbers. Resistance: all-time high and trendlines.

RUT broke its all-time-high resistance trendline dating back to 2000 on May 5. But the IWM ETF is at that resistance trendline now. (Side by side, RUT & IWM tell slightly different stories.) I’ve seen this movie before and you can’t tell which one is the more decisive to follow — the ETF or the index. I would follow this story closely this week to get an understanding regarding risk-on or risk-off.

VIX broke past its 20, 200 and 50 DMA to the upside, then shot back down and found support at the 20 DMA. According to what I know — and past performance is not indicative of future results — when the VIX makes a 10%+ move we see a reversal the other way in the SPX over the next 2 days. If that scenario plays out again, the SPX may correct on Monday.

As you see on my chart, the levels I drew out a few weeks ago are playing out perfectly — acting as support and resistance zones based on where price is coming from. We broke support at the 100 DMA. Next up: the purple & green Fib lines and 200 DMA support.

Gold broke its support at the 200-day MA. Next support and resistance can be found at Fib levels and the moving averages. The Fib numbers are playing nicely.

What the Fed will do is the question on the table. Look for my next levels using the purple lines and the moving averages.

The bigger-picture chart is a quarterly dating back to 2009 — sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture to see the bigger picture, and the trendlines help you assess real risk better. The daily chart is showing support at minor trendlines and the 38% Fib support line I drew out a few months ago. (If 38% is supported, that’s usually a bullish sign.) The same goes for the upward-sloping trendline that dates back to 2008 — that area has held a few times now. We broke out last Friday, and so far that level has held as support.

The weekly chart shows we are at the 200 DMA on the weekly time frame, and the real support dates back to 8/5/2024 at $50,534. For now, we held the February low. BTC has been playing the Fib levels nicely — though past indications of a level don’t automatically mean it will hold again.

A broad look across the futures complex — see the daily overview below for where energy, metals, and the ags are sitting relative to their support and resistance zones.

Remember software was hit hard this year, and I wrote that if this market turns down then IGV is susceptible to further downside — that seems to be happening. Maybe it’s investors selling to raise funds to buy SpaceX, like I hear on the news; maybe not. We couldn’t hold the 200 DMA as support, but the 50 DMA held.

My levels weren’t working for silver — it’s mostly support and resistance lines from prior days and weeks, and perhaps the MAs. The 200 DMA didn’t hold; buyers found support at the March 23 low at $61.21.

SOX found support this week below the 20 DMA. Next support can be found at the moving averages and Fib levels. A bumpy week, but on track for a roughly 9% weekly gain.

For a few weeks I’ve been pointing out we may see a sell-on-the-news after earnings, because that has been the trend. Next support can be found at the 100 & 200 DMA, Fib levels and trendlines. Resistance at the 50 & 20 DMA, trendlines and Fib numbers.

Monday (June 15): After Close — QMCO

Tuesday (June 16): No Major Earnings Scheduled

Wednesday (June 17): Before Open — JBL, KMX

Thursday (June 18): IPO — KARD; Before Open — ACN, KR

Friday (June 19): No Major Earnings Scheduled

Macro Theme: Geopolitical Shock Meets Risk Resilience. This week represented a major test for the commodity complex. The escalation of military conflict between Israel and Iran created one of the most significant geopolitical events markets have faced in years. Yet despite the surge in geopolitical risk, commodity markets delivered a surprisingly selective response.

Rather than triggering broad commodity buying, capital concentrated primarily into energy markets, precious metals, and select defensive inflation hedges. Meanwhile, industrial and agricultural markets remained far more dependent on economic fundamentals than geopolitical developments. The dominant question has shifted from “Will commodities recover?” to “Can geopolitical risk sustain a new inflationary commodity cycle, or will markets ultimately refocus on growth and demand?”

Key Macro Observations

• Crude oil became the dominant macro asset this week
• Gold attracted renewed safe-haven demand
• Silver benefited from both precious-metals and industrial demand
• Industrial metals remained relatively stable despite geopolitical tensions
• Agricultural commodities traded largely on weather and crop fundamentals
• Inflation expectations moved higher alongside energy prices
• Most importantly: geopolitical influence has returned as a primary pricing factor

Positioning & Flow (COT Insight)

Positioning trends suggest a transition from “Defensive Commodity Concentration” toward “Geopolitical Inflation Hedging.” Energy longs are expanding rapidly, gold participation is increasing, silver participation is broadening, agriculture positioning is stabilizing, and industrial-metals positioning is neutral. Implication: markets are becoming increasingly sensitive to military developments, energy-infrastructure risks, inflation expectations, and central-bank responses.

Key Cross-Market Signals

• Energy Is Dominating Leadership — oil is now the primary macro driver; energy volatility is driving broader commodity sentiment.
• Gold Has Rejoined Leadership — safe-haven demand accelerating, inflation-hedging demand expanding.
• Economic Growth Fears Remain Limited — copper stability suggests recession fears remain contained; industrial-demand expectations intact.
• Commodity Leadership Is Concentrated — current ranking: Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Agriculture, Copper, Natural Gas.

Risks to Monitor (Upcoming Week)

• Israel-Iran conflict developments
• Potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions
• Crude oil volatility
• Inflation expectation shifts
• Federal Reserve communication
• U.S. Dollar reaction
• Crop and weather developments