S&P 500 futures are down about 0.2% after Thursday's 1.2% drop pushed the index 110 points under the dealer flip, as the AI-financing selloff pauses, the 10-year yield sits just under 5% and Brent holds above $113.

The 90-Second Read

1. AI financing, not earnings, broke the tape The S&P 500 fell 1.21% to 7,663.43, its worst day since July, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.60% to 26,008.86 while the Dow edged up 0.02% to 52,867.98. The semiconductor ETF lost about 6.0%, closing at 523.35. Meta fell 6.97% to $648.85 after raising the low end of its 2026 capital-spending range to $135 billion–$145 billion with another quarter of negative free cash flow, and Intel, AMD and Lam Research each fell 7% to 9%. Details are in Section 9.
2. The dealer map flipped back The index closed under both the flip and the put wall, and ES futures are about 17 points under Thursday's settle of 7,704.50, having traded as low as 7,685, so the market is testing the put wall's ES equivalent near 7,691 from below. Section 5 has the full map.
3. Bonds rallied, oil did not The 10-year Treasury yield fell 17 basis points to 4.96%, back under 5% after a report that U.S. and Israeli planners weigh a short, intensive renewed strike on Iran after the November 3 midterms sent money toward safety. Brent still settled up 4% at $113.17, its highest settle since May, WTI is back above $101, and gold sits at its 30-day low near $4,038.
4. The Fed has priced out some of the hike Futures put the chance of a hike on October 28 at about 9%, down from about 15% a day earlier, and the odds of at least one by December 9 at about 78%. Thursday's jobless claims were 194,000. Today's data are the flash PMIs and final consumer sentiment, with American Express and SLB reporting before the open.
5. Levels into the open ES trades about 43 points under Cannon's pivot of 7,729.67 and above first support at 7,660.58, with second support at 7,607.67 and third at 7,538.58; first resistance is 7,782.58. Today's expiring ES options hold their largest put interest at 7,650, their largest call interest at 7,800 and a very large two-way pile at 7,700.

The Scoreboard

Futures, commodity, currency and bitcoin rows are reads from about 5:50 AM ET (dollar index, yen and Kospi from about 7:30 AM), with futures changes against Thursday's settles; index rows and yields are Thursday's closes, and the premarket single-name moves are thin early prints.

Sentiment & Flow Gauges

Flow Read

Thursday was a narrow decline: the largest stocks sold hard while most of the index held, new highs kept crowding out new lows and volume stayed slightly on the buyers' side. That is why sentiment looks worse than breadth, with the fear gauge near 21 and the index still only 2% under its record close. The dealer regime is the exception, since a close under the flip puts the market back where a few big sellers can move the whole index. The net-liquidity gauge also switched to draining this week as the Treasury rebuilt its cash balance after the October 15 tax date.

Yesterday's Calls Graded

Calendar & Scenario Map

Consensus for the flash PMIs is left out because published forecasts and prior readings disagree; earnings estimates are omitted until results post.

Levels & Structure

Cannon's own pivots put the ES Dec daily pivot at 7,729.67, with resistance at 7,782.58, 7,851.67 and 7,904.58 and support at 7,660.58, 7,607.67 and 7,538.58; the contract's 52-week high of 7,897.50 sits just under third resistance and its 30-day low of 7,575 between second and third support. The firm's trend signals read up on the long horizon for ES and NQ, with NQ's short horizon down.

Cannon Daily Levels · October 23

Cannon Edge · October 23

Levels are SPX, close-based, from a public dealer-gamma (GEX) model. The ES column adds Thursday's basis: the futures settle less the cash close. Open-interest peaks are a near-dated proxy and do not replace the model's levels; the November chain is the monthly expiry of November 20, and a near-dated wall that differs from the model's is information, not a correction.

Concentration, not participation

The cap-weighted S&P fund fell about 1.2% on Thursday against a gain of about 0.7% for the equal-weight fund, which took the ratio between them to about 3.50 from about 3.57 a day earlier, a one-day swing of nearly 2 percentage points in favor of the average stock. The Magnificent Seven fund fell about 3.4% to near 70.5, the Russell 2000 gained 0.11%, utilities rose 3.2% and energy 2.0% while industrials fell 3.2%. A decline that sits this heavily on a handful of names is a different market from one the equal-weight index shares.

Institutional Positioning

Desk Shift Tracker

Most large desks published nothing verifiable inside the window, so their entries carry forward unchanged; several new entries are headline-level or panel appearances only.

Macro Pressure Map

Rates: a rally in the long end, a hike still priced

The Treasury curve rallied hard on Thursday: the 2-year yield fell 16 basis points to 4.65%, the 10-year 17 basis points to 4.96%, its lowest since late September, and the 30-year 13 basis points to 5.29%. Two forces drove it, a safe-haven bid after the report that U.S. and Israeli planners weigh a short, intensive renewed strike on Iran after the midterms, and the AI-financing worries that hit technology. Overnight the 10-year is trading near 4.98%. France's ten-year yield touched 5.00% on Wednesday, its first time there since 2002, on political unrest and a stalled 2027 budget, and the European Central Bank meets October 28–29 with a hold expected and a December hike priced by many economists.

Oil and the Gulf

Brent settled Thursday at $113.17, up about 4% and its highest settle since May, and WTI is near $101 this morning, up more than 50% since the Iran war began in late February. The driver is the widening Gulf front: Houthi attacks on Saudi targets continue, Saudi officials said the Dammam airport and an Aramco field were hit, and President Trump said the United States is not negotiating with Iran. Gold trades at its 30-day low near $4,038 and silver under its 52-week low, so the safe-haven bid went to Treasuries and not to metals, while Bitcoin sits near $81,500.

Inflation and the Fed

The September minutes said most participants expected another hike by year-end, and September payrolls rose only 29,000. With no Fed speakers until the decision, the next inflation evidence is today's flash PMIs and the final sentiment survey's expectations measures, then next Thursday's price index.

Portfolio Positioning

Fed Watch

The funds target is 3.75% to 4.00% after September's hike, the first in three years under Chair Warsh. The committee is in its quiet period, so there are no scheduled speakers before the October 28 decision at 2:00 PM, and the next Fed print is the balance sheet next Thursday afternoon. The falling yields that cut hike pricing this week came from safe-haven buying and tech weakness, not from any change in the Fed's own signals, which is why the split on October persists: Hartnett wants a hike, while Siegel does not expect one and calls December very likely, as do Goldman Sachs' economists.

What the Consensus Is Missing

The Close

The market opens with futures down about 0.2%, Nasdaq contracts steady after Thursday's rout, oil firm, and the dealer map back in the amplified regime with ES trading right at the put wall's equivalent. The tests are whether futures hold Cannon's first support at 7,660.58 and reclaim 7,700, whether the AI-financing selling stays contained as Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon approach their reports, and whether the 10-year can stay under 5% into the October 28 Fed decision.