S&P 500 futures are higher after SpaceX's blowout quarter and a broad Tuesday rally, but the index still sits 39 points under the dealer flip, crude is back near $100 and Meta and Tesla report tonight.

The 90-Second Read

1. SpaceX gives futures their lift SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion against about $13 billion expected and earnings of $0.35 a share against roughly $0.13, and its shares are sharply higher before the open. Elon Musk said on the call that independent directors at both SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss a merger, with no terms agreed. Nasdaq futures lead, and the details are in Section 9.
2. A rally that reached beyond the largest stocks The S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,712.57 and the Dow 1.02%, while the Russell 2000 jumped 1.65% and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.02%. The equal-weight S&P fund beat the cap-weight fund, with health care and consumer discretionary leading and the biggest technology names lagging. That is the opposite of Monday's chip-led bounce, and the breadth detail sits in the Scoreboard.
3. Bonds eased a little, oil did not The ten-year yield closed near 5.12%, down about 2 basis points, and the thirty-year near 5.42%, down 6, but December WTI is back up 1.6% to near $99.40 and Brent near $110. Shipping attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and a diplomat's dismissal of reports of an imminent deal with Iran are behind the rebound; the Gulf detail is in Section 8.
4. Overnight earnings split on guidance Netflix met revenue and beat earnings but trimmed its advertising and cash-flow outlook and is lower. Super Micro preannounced a quarter far above its prior range and is up in the low-to-mid teens, Capital One beat and is higher, and Intuitive Surgical beat but is down sharply on a settlement charge. United Airlines missed and gave a weak fourth-quarter range.
5. Tonight's cluster is the real event Meta, Tesla, IBM, Lam Research and Texas Instruments report after the close, with options pricing moves of about 7% to 8% in each, and the quarter's largest AI-spending questions go to Meta and Tesla. Abbott, AT&T, Danaher, Thermo Fisher and Elevance report before the open. The Fed is silent until the October 28 decision, so data and earnings carry the day.
6. Levels into the open The dealer model's put wall is 7,700, 13 points under Tuesday's close, and its call wall is 7,800, 87 points above, a corridor only 100 points wide after both walls moved inward. Futures sit about 19 points above Cannon's ES pivot of 7,752.00, with first support at 7,712.50 and first resistance at 7,799.50.

The Scoreboard

Futures, oil, gold, silver, dollar and currency rows are reads from about 6:00 AM ET; index rows and the ten-year yield are Tuesday's closes, and futures changes are against Tuesday's settle.

Sentiment & Flow Gauges

Flow Read

Tuesday's rally was broad in a way Monday's was not: highs outnumbered lows, buyers held the volume edge and small caps outran the index, yet the VIX fell only to 17.3 and the dealer regime is still negative. Participation is healthy, but with just over half the index above its 200-day average it is repairing damage and not yet extending a trend. The credit gauge has not joined the rally. One more cross-current: the S&P 500 is about 0.7% lower than it was four weeks ago while net liquidity rose roughly $115 billion over the four weeks to the latest reading, so the index has gone sideways against a rising liquidity backdrop instead of tracking it.

Yesterday's Calls Graded

Calendar & Scenario Map

Consensus figures are the market's forecasts as published this week; earnings estimates differ by provider and can shift before the print, and the sources checked disagree on whether Tesla reports tonight or tomorrow night, though most place it tonight. Nothing for the week's housing report could be confirmed, so none is shown.

Levels & Structure

Cannon's own pivots put the ES Dec daily pivot at 7,752.00, with resistance at 7,799.50, 7,839.00 and 7,886.50 and support at 7,712.50, 7,665.00 and 7,625.50; the contract's 52-week high of 7,897.50 sits just above third resistance, and its 30-day low of 7,575 lies well under third support. The firm's trend signals read down on the short horizon and up on the long horizon for both ES and NQ.

Cannon Daily Levels · October 21

Cannon Edge · October 21

Levels are SPX, close-based, from a public dealer-gamma (GEX) model. The ES column adds Tuesday's basis: the futures settle less the cash close. Open-interest peaks are a near-dated proxy and do not replace the model's levels; the November chain is the monthly expiry of November 20.

Volatility structure

SPX options imply annualized volatility near 13.8% against realized near 9.9%, and the volatility of volatility index closed at 97.2, down from 106.9 a day earlier, so the pricing of tail protection eased more than the VIX itself. The October VIX contract settles this morning, before the Meta and Tesla results, which means the settlement print carries none of tonight's reaction.

Concentration, not participation

The cap-weighted S&P fund closed Tuesday near 769.1 and about 3.563 times the equal-weight fund, down from 3.592 a day earlier, because the equal-weight fund rose about 1.15% while the cap-weighted one rose 0.34%, so the average stock beat the largest ones. The Magnificent Seven fund slipped about 0.4% to near 72.2, and the small-cap fund gained about 1.7%.

Institutional Positioning

Desk Shift Tracker

Most of the large desks and technicians published nothing verifiable inside the window, so their entries carry forward unchanged; several new voices are headline-level only. Wells Fargo's 7,700 target now sits just below the index.

Macro Pressure Map

Rates: a small rally in a stressed market

Tuesday's Treasury close put the two-year at 4.79%, up 2 basis points, the ten-year near 5.12% and the thirty-year at 5.42%, down 6, so the curve flattened as long yields eased. The two-to-ten spread is about 33 basis points. The 20-year auction at 1:00 PM today is the week's supply test.

Oil and the Gulf

December WTI is near $99.40 and Brent near $110, up 1.6% and 1.4% from Tuesday's settles, about 10% higher than a month ago and roughly 70% above a year earlier. The driver remains Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: at least 18 vessels have been attacked in two weeks, two more tankers were reported struck Tuesday, and a diplomat dismissed reports that a deal is imminent after Pakistan's army chief met Iranian officials. Flows through the region are still only about 80% of their pre-war level. Gold is flat, still below the $4,200 level it has failed at repeatedly.

Inflation and the cost of energy

September consumer prices ran 3.7% on the year, with energy the main driver, and with no Fed speakers until the decision the next inflation evidence is Friday's flash purchasing managers' indexes, whose prices-paid components will be read for pass-through from $100 oil.

Portfolio Positioning

Fed Watch

The funds target is 3.75% to 4.00% after September's hike, the first in three years under Chair Warsh, who said last Friday that he does not prejudge meetings. There is no meeting in November, so the October 27 to 28 decision and the December 8 to 9 one are the only two windows left this year. The committee is in its quiet period with no scheduled speakers, and the Fed's balance-sheet release on Thursday afternoon is the only scheduled Fed print before the decision. Goldman Sachs' Hatzius expects a pause this month and a hike in December, which is also where the market is leaning.

What the Consensus Is Missing

The Close

The market opens with futures higher on SpaceX, Nasdaq contracts leading, crude back near $100 and a dealer flip still above the last close, with the index needing about half a percent to reach it. The tests are whether futures can hold Cannon's 7,752 pivot and clear 7,800 where the model's boundary and the day's heaviest calls cluster, whether the 20-year auction passes quietly, and what Meta and Tesla say tonight about the spending the bond market is still being asked to finance.