Stock futures sit flat after Nvidia's founder leaves the corner office, and the morning belongs to producer prices and a 10-year yield back above 5%

The 90-Second Read

1. Huang is out, formally Nvidia's board accepted Jensen Huang's resignation as president, chief executive and director, effective immediately. Chief financial officer Colette Kress is interim chief executive and keeps the finance job, and longtime director Harvey Jones becomes the company's first board chair. The stock fell 4.34% to 166.19 on Thursday after a far deeper drop in the first minutes of trading.
2. The money stayed in AI AMD rose 5.86% and Broadcom 5.54% while Nvidia fell, so the rotation the premarket tape hinted at survived the cash session. The damage landed on the most leveraged corner of the trade instead: CoreWeave lost 6.86% and Nebius 16.84%, and the large semiconductor ETF slipped 1.03%.
3. A small loss with a wide spread The S&P 500 fell 0.35% to 7,592.40, the Dow 0.36% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.39%. The Russell 2000 dropped 1.66%. The headline index hid a much weaker average stock.
4. Rates did the quiet damage The Treasury market reopened after the holiday and repriced the hot inflation report all at once: the 10-year closed back above 5% and the 2-year jumped more than the 10-year. The 30-year auction cleared at 5.441%. Section 8 carries the curve.
5. The after-hours tape was strong Cisco raised its full-year outlook and called the quarter its strongest growth in more than 15 years; Applied Materials guided its next quarter above this one. The figures are in Section 9.
6. 8:30 is the event October producer prices print against September's 1.3% monthly jump. With a December hike already treated as a given, a second hot inflation read moves the debate to size. Bowman, Daly and Jefferson speak later.
7. Levels into the open A public dealer-gamma (GEX) model puts the put wall at 7,500, the call wall at 7,700 and the gamma flip at 7,652.56. ES Dec carries a 22.85 premium to cash, so the floor sits near 7,523 in ES, the flip near 7,675 and the ceiling near 7,723.

The Scoreboard

Rows with a clock time are overnight reads measured against Thursday's settlements; the bitcoin change is over 24 hours. Cash index and single-stock rows are Thursday's closes. The 10-year yield lives in the masthead and the curve in Section 8.

Sentiment & Flow Gauges

Flow Read

Thursday's tape split along a clean line. The index-level gauges barely moved: the fear gauge rose by a little more than a point and credit spreads were steady. Underneath, the average stock had a bad day, with sellers controlling volume and new highs halving, while the long-term trend measure held above its threshold. None of the four breadth conditions fired, and the gap between a flat index and a weak median member is the kind of day that tends to be decided by whichever way rates go next. The more useful tell is in the options tape. Single-stock put buying jumped back after Wednesday's collapse, so the hedges that came off into the rebound went back on into the Nvidia news, and the sentiment index sits in fear with its weakest reading in price momentum. That leaves positioning cautious rather than complacent going into a data release that can move rates, which is a better setup for the bulls than Wednesday's was, provided producer prices do not add to the inflation scare.

Yesterday's Calls Graded

Calendar & Scenario Map

Prior figures are shown where the calendar carries them; consensus is left blank where no first-hand estimate was available. October's producer-price figures will be the first hard read since the consumer-price report that put a December hike in the price.

Pivot Points & Gamma Map

Cannon Daily Levels · Pivots, Support & Resistance

Cannon Daily Levels · Trend & 52-Week Range

Other weight in the November 20 chain: 23,562 puts at 7,400 below the market, and 23,119 calls at 7,800, a shelf near the top of the strike window used here rather than a confirmed peak. Above the market, 22,982 puts at 7,600 and 22,480 at 7,700 are in-the-money positions, not walls. Cannon's ES Dec levels put the pivot at 7,621.42, first resistance at 7,670.83 and first support at 7,568.08.

Unlike Thursday, the two option maps now agree on the floor. The all-expiry dealer model moved its put wall down to 7,500 from 7,600, matching the heaviest put strike in next week's monthly chain, and the flip moved up. That is a wider negative-gamma zone than a day ago: roughly 150 SPX points between the floor and the flip with little option support in between. In the ES contract that expires this afternoon, the largest put open interest below the market is 22,323 contracts at 7,500 in ES terms, and the largest call open interest above it is 8,354 at 7,650. Today's pin therefore leans toward 7,650 in ES on the upside, close to the flip translation and Cannon's first resistance, with the expiring puts anchored well below.

Concentration worked in the index's favor on Thursday. The equal-weight S&P 500 ETF fell about 0.9%, more than twice the cap-weighted index's loss, while the large-cap technology basket finished essentially flat: the biggest names held the index up while the typical member lagged.

Institutional Positioning

Desk Shift Tracker

Macro Pressure Map

Portfolio Positioning

Fed Watch

The federal funds target sits at 3.75% to 4.00%, and the next decision is December 8–9. The October vote to hold was 10–2, with Governor Cook and Cleveland's Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike, and the inflation data since then has moved the rest of the committee toward them. Thursday's bond move says the market agrees: the front end did most of the work, which is how a curve behaves when it expects the central bank to act rather than when it worries about deficits. Goldman's economists added a further hike early next year to a December move.

The Fed also published its 2027 meeting calendar on Thursday. It lists eight meetings, but the October 26–27 session is reserved for a review of policy strategy with no rate decision, and the last scheduled meeting is November 16–17. That leaves seven rate decisions next year and no December meeting. Today's speakers are less central to the rate path: Bowman's remarks are on supervision, Daly speaks at noon and Jefferson's evening speech is on productivity. Chair Warsh opens a San Francisco Fed conference on Monday.

What the Consensus Is Missing