The broad bid is in small caps and the Dow, not in technology. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,376.86 after four straight losing weeks, and October inflation arrives tomorrow morning.
| Instrument | Level | Change | Session |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,376.86 | +0.31% | Fri close |
| Dow Jones Industrials | 51,285.73 | −0.46% | Fri close |
| Nasdaq Composite | 24,579.42 | +1.09% | Fri close |
| Russell 2000 | 2,754.11 | +0.89% | Fri close |
| ES Dec 26Friday settle 7,402.00 | 7,439.00 | +0.50% | 5:49 AM ET |
| NQ Dec 26Friday settle 27,085.25 | 27,152.25 | +0.25% | 5:49 AM ET |
| Dow futures (YM Dec 26)Friday settle 51,385 | 51,816 | +0.84% | 5:49 AM ET |
| Russell futures (RTY Dec 26)Friday settle 2,760.50 | 2,793.90 | +1.21% | 5:49 AM ET |
| WTI Dec 26Friday settle 90.83 | 89.66 | −1.29% | 5:49 AM ET |
| Gold Dec 26Friday settle 4,074.90 | 4,106.30 | +0.77% | 5:49 AM ET |
| Dollar indexFriday close 102.30 | 101.83 | −0.46% | 5:49 AM ET |
| US 10-yearTreasury yield | 4.86% | — | Fri close |
| NvidiaFriday close 186.64 | 177.81 | −4.73% | 6:00 AM ET |
| AMDFriday close 449.04 | 460.00 | +2.44% | 6:00 AM ET |
| Semiconductor fund (SMH)Thursday close 447.73 | 463.96 | +3.62% | Fri close |
Rows with a clock time are reads at that time against Friday's settlement or close; index, Treasury and fund rows are Friday's closes.
| Gauge | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| VIXThursday close 28.18 | 25.64 | ELEVATED Volatility eased for a second session from its Thursday spike but remains well above the 16.61 of Wednesday. |
| Fear & Greed indexPrior reading 22.1 | 24.4 | EXTREME FEAR The gauge sat at 19.4 a week earlier, so it has lifted only slightly. |
| AAII bearish shareWeek of Nov 5 · prior week 41.4% | 48.4% | BEARS LEAD Bullish respondents were 34.1%, down from 37.8% a week earlier. |
| S&P 500 new highs / lows52-week · prior session | 7 / 4 | NARROW Both counts are small, and both slipped from 11 and 7 a session earlier. |
| S&P 500 above 200-dayprior session | 55.4% | THIN Participation above the long-term average fell from 58.2% a session earlier. |
| S&P 500 up / down volumeprior session | 44% up | MIXED Volume was split, with slightly more traded on stocks that fell, even on an index gain. |
| High-yield spreadICE BofA HY OAS · Nov 5 | 3.48% · +22bp w/w | WIDENING Credit spreads are wider than a week earlier. |
None of the four breadth conditions fired on Friday: the index gain was well short of 1%, no side reached 90% of volume, and the small-cap and large-cap advance-decline readings were not extreme. Futures positioning was already lopsided before the crash. As of Tuesday, Nov 3, leveraged funds were net short about 366,870 S&P 500 futures contracts, a net short that had narrowed by 33,008 contracts in a week, so the Thursday plunge landed on a market that was not carrying heavy fund length.
| Time ET | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 10:00 | Wholesale trade, September | — | 0.5% |
| Mon 10:00 | Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks | — | — |
| Mon 12:15 PM | Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks | — | — |
| Tue 6:00 | NFIB small business optimism index, October | — | 97.9 |
| Tue 8:30 | Consumer price index, October, month over month | — | 0.6% |
| Tue 8:30 | Core CPI, October, month over month | — | 0.3% |
| Tue 8:30 | CPI, October, year over year | — | 3.7% |
| Tue 8:30 | Core CPI, October, year over year | — | 2.6% |
| Tue 10:50 | Dallas Fed President Logan speaks | — | — |
| Tue 1:30 PM | Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks | — | — |
| Tue 3:30 PM | Fed Vice Chair Bowman at the Council on Foreign Relations | — | — |
| Tue 6:30 PM | Fed Vice Chair Bowman and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson speak | — | — |
| Thu 8:30 | Weekly jobless claims | — | 189K |
| Thu 10:00 | Existing home sales, October | — | 4.0M |
| Thu 10:00 | Fed Governor Barr speaks on artificial intelligence | — | — |
| Thu 1:10 PM | San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks | — | — |
| Thu 2:00 PM | Monthly Treasury balance, October | — | −$27B |
| Thu 4:30 PM | Fed balance sheet (H.4.1) | — | — |
| Fri 8:30 | Producer price index, October | — | 1.3% |
| Fri 8:30 | Core PPI (ex food and energy), October, month over month | — | 0.7% |
| Fri 8:30 | PPI, October, year over year | — | 6.3% |
Consensus and prior figures are shown where the calendar carries them; Wednesday has no scheduled U.S. data releases.
Cannon's daily pivot table had not refreshed for today when this letter went out, so it is left out. The first map below comes from open interest in the November 20 SPX chain, read across a window running from 7,155 to 7,600, with ES Dec at a 25.14-point premium to Friday's cash close.
| Open-interest shelf | SPX | ES Dec · +25.14 | Role in today's tape |
|---|---|---|---|
| Call shelf | 7,500 | 7,525.14 | The largest call open interest above the market, 12,702 contracts, 123.14 points above the close. Another 8,821 sit at 7,600 on the upper edge of the window, so the heavy area continues beyond it. |
| Heavy strike, in the money | 7,500 | 7,525.14 | Also the largest put open interest on the board, 41,363 contracts, a heavily traded strike sitting above the market rather than a floor under it. |
| Heavy strike, in the money | 7,400 | 7,425.14 | Carries 23,799 puts and 7,108 calls, 23.14 points above the close and right where ES trades. |
| Put shelf | 7,300 | 7,325.14 | 17,085 puts, 76.86 points under the close. |
| Put shelf | 7,200 | 7,225.14 | The largest put open interest below the market, 18,462 contracts, 176.86 points under the close. |
A public dealer-gamma (GEX) model, read on Friday's close, puts the regime in negative-gamma territory: the S&P 500 closed under its gamma flip, which means dealers are considered net short gamma, selling as prices fall and buying as prices rise, a setup that tends to amplify moves in both directions. Its outer walls sit far from the market.
| Gamma level | SPX | ES Dec · +25.14 | Distance from the close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put wall | 7,000 | 7,025.14 | 376.86 points under the close. |
| Call wall | 8,000 | 8,025.14 | 623.14 points above the close. |
| Gamma flip | 8,333.73 | 8,358.87 | 956.87 points above the close, beyond the call wall, so the aggregate gamma curve stays negative across the whole range the market is trading in. |
The walls and flip are all-expiration aggregates, so they describe regime rather than near-term magnets; the open-interest shelves above are the closer references.
The near-dated chain, which expires today, tells a different and shorter story. In the ES Monday weekly, read across 7,200 to 7,635, the largest call open interest above the market is 5,197 contracts at 7,550, with another 5,021 at 7,625 near the top of the window, and the put side carries 2,799 at 7,300 with 4,830 at 7,200 on the bottom edge of the window. Those edge strikes are shelves, not peaks, because the interest has not died out before the window ends. Where the near-dated and the all-weeks charts disagree, the near-dated chain describes today's pin and the November 20 chain describes the structure.
Yardeni reconfirmed his year-end target on Saturday: "We are sticking with our 7,900 year-end target." That level is 523.14 points above Friday's close. His argument is that valuations are falling while earnings soar, and he put it in numbers on social media: the S&P 500 has climbed 106% since October 2022, but its multiple has stopped rising and all of the gain now comes from earnings.
He extended the point overseas, saying technology earnings abroad are at record highs while valuations crater, with South Korea's forward price-to-earnings ratio down to 3.4, the lowest in more than 20 years. He also said analysts keep raising earnings estimates for the companies building AI infrastructure even after the crash.
| Voice | Stance | What moved |
|---|---|---|
| Ed YardeniYardeni Research | CONSTRUCTIVE | Held his 7,900 year-end target; sees earnings, not multiples, driving the market. |
| Driver | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Net liquidityFed balance sheet − TGA − RRP · Wednesday levels · updates Thu | $5.81T · ▲ $82B w/w | ADDING The Treasury's cash balance fell back from the prior week's level while the Fed balance sheet edged higher; the next update is Thursday. |
| Crude oilWTI Dec · Friday settle 90.83 | 89.66 | SOFTER Oil gives back 1.29% overnight as Iran headlines stay in play. |
| Treasury yield10-year · Friday close | 4.86% | STEADY The yield closed Friday at this level ahead of the CPI print. |
| GoldDec · Friday settle 4,074.90 | 4,106.30 | FIRMER Gold recovers 0.77% overnight after Friday's settle. |
| DollarIndex · Friday close 102.30 | 101.83 | SOFTER The dollar index is down 0.46% from Friday's close. |
| Name | The story |
|---|---|
| Nvidia | The stock indicates 177.81, down 4.73% from Friday's close of 186.64, after the board opened an investigation into Huang's relationship. The stock had closed at 181.60 on Thursday, so the indication is below Thursday's crash close. Earnings follow on Nov 17. |
| AMD | AMD indicates 2.44% higher at 460.00, trading against the group's largest name rather than with it. |
| Semiconductor fund | SMH gained 3.62% on Friday to 463.96, recovering part of Thursday's 11.21% plunge. |
No policy meeting is scheduled this week, but the speaker list is crowded. Goolsbee speaks at 10:00 this morning and Barkin at 12:15 PM. Tomorrow brings Logan at 10:50, Schmid at 1:30 PM, and Bowman and Paulson into the evening, all after the 8:30 CPI print. Thursday adds Hammack, Barr and Daly and then Williams at 6:30 PM, and Daly speaks again Friday at noon. Every one of them will be asked to read the inflation number.
Nvidia is down 4.73% on an investigation into its chief executive, yet futures are higher and the Russell is up 1.21%. Money is moving to the edges of the index rather than out of it. The test comes when the technology group is asked to hold a bounce without its largest member.
The S&P 500 rebounded on Friday, but fear readings are still near extremes, bearish respondents lead the sentiment survey, and credit spreads are wider than a week ago. Those gauges usually lean against a market, so the question for CPI week is whether price or sentiment gives way first.
The largest open interest in the November 20 chain sits in the 7,500 puts, and those puts are in the money. Price at 7,376.86 is therefore trading underneath the board's densest strike rather than above it, which describes a market with room to travel in both directions before expiration rather than a floor.
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