Goldman Sachs — Equity Strategy CONSTRUCTIVE / SMALL-CAP ROTATION

Desk view as last published — standing 2026 outlook, surveyed May 26, 2026.

Constructive on Equities, but Forecasting Lower Index Returns — Make the Case for US Small-Caps

Goldman Sachs Research remains constructive on equities for 2026 but expects lower index returns than 2025 as the bull market broadens. The firm’s economists look for ~2.8% global growth and 2.6% US, helped by reduced tariff drag, tax cuts and easier financial conditions, and have built a tactical case for US small-caps: after past Fed cutting cycles, small caps have historically outperformed the S&P 500 by roughly twelve percentage points on average, and AI capex spillover is set to widen the beneficiary list. Carried here as standing context, the desk’s framework supports a barbell — mega-cap AI exposure paired with a small-cap re-rating bet — rather than chasing the cap-weighted index from its current highs.

Morgan Stanley — Equity Strategy ROLLING RECOVERY

Desk view as last published — standing 2026 thesis, surveyed May 22, 2026.

A ‘Rolling Recovery’ Thesis With S&P 500 EPS Growth ~14% — Equal-Weight Catch-Up the Cleanest Way to Play It

Morgan Stanley’s US equity strategy team carries a 2026 outlook built on a ‘rolling recovery’ in which leadership rotates from group to group rather than resting on a single set of names — a framework that has aged reasonably as Friday’s records were set with the equal-weight S&P and the Dow participating, not just the mega-caps. The desk sees roughly 14% S&P 500 EPS growth in 2026 with price appreciation more limited as multiples have already done much of the work, leaning into volatility along the way. The implication for positioning is to express bullish risk through the equal-weight S&P 493 catching up to the cap-weighted index rather than concentrating exposure to the top of the bench.

JPMorgan Global Research — Cross-Asset Outlook DOUBLE-DIGIT DM/EM

Desk view as last published — standing 2026 outlook, surveyed Q1 2026.

Positive on Global Equities — 10–25% Upside Across DM and EM as Earnings, Lower Rates and AI Tailwinds Combine

JPMorgan Global Research carries a constructive standing call on global equities for 2026, forecasting double-digit gains across both developed and emerging markets as earnings broaden, policy headwinds recede and AI tailwinds persist. The firm’s framework points to 10–25% upside in equities and argues that stocks beat other asset classes across the scenarios that matter. The desk’s Mislav Matejka has separately argued the equity market is overpricing the risk of further Fed hikes — a constructive marginal call that fits the firm’s broader cross-asset frame — while leaving room for the curve and credit to do their own work into the second half.

Apollo Academy — Torsten Slok, “The Daily Spark” YIELDS PUSH UP THE CURVE

Three Distinct Forces Are Pushing Yields Higher — Front End, Belly and Long End All Under Pressure

Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok’s late-May commentary continues to flag three distinct forces lifting yields across the curve: the front end is under upward pressure because inflation is sticky for longer, the belly carries the load of hyperscaler debt issuance funding the AI buildout, and the long end has to absorb additional Treasury supply paired with reduced Fed demand. Slok has separately called the inflation backdrop a “very serious” problem and notes the bond market is now actively pricing the possibility of Fed hikes in 2026. Apollo’s frame is stagflationary near-term, with the AI capex cycle as the dominant offsetting growth pillar — not enough on its own to neutralise the rate squeeze on the rest of the index, which is one reason positioning in the S&P 493 looks more vulnerable than in the Mag 7.

The Kobeissi Letter BOND MARKET FLASHING RED

10-Year Up ~50 Basis Points Since the Iran War Began; 2026 Hike Odds at a New High of 37%

Kobeissi summarises today’s rate backdrop bluntly: the US 10-year has climbed roughly 50 basis points in the twenty-seven days since the Iran war began, briefly clearing 4.55% (first time above that level since May 2025) before easing to 4.51% on Tuesday’s reopen. Fed-funds futures now price 37% odds of a Fed hike in 2026 — a new high — while a separate Kobeissi chart shows cumulative US PCE inflation up 28.5% since 2020, persistently above the Fed’s target. He pairs the rate move with the dispersion picture: three-month dispersion across US equities, oil, USD, bonds and credit sits near 18%, the highest since the 2022 bear market — the structural fragility under a tape still close to record highs, with US households holding a record 25.63% of net worth in equities.

Yardeni Research — Ed Yardeni SPX 8,250 / ROARING 2020s 80%

Standing target last raised May 11, 2026 — carried as recurring framing.

Street-High 8,250 Year-End Target on an Earnings-Led Meltup — “10,000 Might Arrive Ahead of Schedule”

Ed Yardeni’s standing 2026 S&P 500 target is the Street’s highest at 8,250, raised from 7,700 on May 11 and roughly 11.5% above Friday’s 7,473.47 cash close. The driver is the Q1 earnings season: analysts now estimate ~23% calendar-2026 EPS growth, which Yardeni calls extraordinary, and he has lifted Roaring 2020s odds to 80% from 60%, saying his 10,000 long-term target for end-2029 “might arrive ahead of schedule.” He warns the path could be a meltup-then-meltdown, which is increasingly relevant given the rate-sensitivity flagged by Slok and Kobeissi — the bull case is intact but the slope is getting steeper.

Rosenberg Research — David Rosenberg LATE-2007 COMPLACENCY ECHO

Standing framing as last published — surveyed May 22, 2026.

No Strategist Has a Recession Call — “Everything Really Rests on the Stock Market for 2026”

David Rosenberg notes the absence of any recession call in major consensus surveys mirrors late-2007 exuberance, when every published sell-side strategist had a constructive year-end target. When everyone clusters on one side of the boat, the boat capsizes; the Shiller CAPE pressing 40 is a three-standard-deviation event historically. His bottom line: the 2026 outcome rests entirely on the stock market staying up, and any pullback creates “major problems” for a household sector with the highest equity-to-net-worth ratio on record. Carried here as the recurring bear-case framing — a useful counterweight to Yardeni’s 8,250 and the Street-bullish desks above.

Mohamed El-Erian FED “ACTS BY NOT ACTING”

Last published commentary May 20, 2026 — carried as recurring framing.

Demand Destruction Ahead; Core Inflation ~2.5%; Warsh’s Legacy Will Be Reforming the Fed

Mohamed El-Erian expects “demand destruction” near term and characterises the policy backdrop as “the Fed is going to act by not acting” — the FOMC’s most likely posture into a slowing-jobs-without-recession path. He flags employment beginning to decouple from GDP, with growth in 2026 potentially compatible with a relatively stagnant labour market, and notes core inflation hovering around 2.5% above the 2% target keeps any eased policy stance regressive against low-income households. On the new Chair, he frames Kevin Warsh’s historical legacy in terms of reforming the institution rather than steering the next rate cycle — a posture that, if accurate, makes the first Warsh communication this week one of the most strategically important events of the month.

Jonathan Krinsky / BTIG FEATURED TECHNICAL ANALYST

Standing call last republished May 17, 2026 — carried as recurring technical framing.

Seven Warning Signs and Two Positives — Sharp Breadth Divergence Under a Stretched Index

BTIG technical strategist Jonathan Krinsky’s mid-May framework still drives the technical desk’s caution heading into the post-holiday tape. He flagged a daily RSI on SPY of 78 just before a 1.2% decline, a breadth divergence with only roughly 47% of stocks above their 50-day moving averages while the index itself sits ~8.5% above its own 50-day, and an elevated NYSE declining-volume share. His seven warning signs against two positives skew sharply cautious, and the May 11 call for a “swift revision lower in the semi-AI trade” remains the cleanest articulation of the narrowing-leadership risk this morning. Carried forward as standing technical framing — the desks treating it as the framework to be falsified, not yet falsified.

Carter Worth — CNBC SHORT SHY / 2Y BREAKOUT

Standing call republished May 22, 2026.

Charts Point to a Breakout in Short-Term Treasury Yields — Express by Shorting SHY

Carter Worth’s recent on-air work has the 2-year yield in a bottoming formation against its 150-day moving average and projects a breakout higher; he frames the cleanest expression as a short in SHY, the 1-3 year Treasury ETF. The directional view dovetails with the easing-bias unwind out of the May FOMC and with the Kobeissi rate-hike-odds chart — a 2026 hike is now priced near 37%. He also flagged Wendy’s in a bearish-to-bullish reversal with a double-bottom formation pointing to a prospective $10 move, his only constructive single-name call into the holiday week.

Mark Newton / Fundstrat — Head of Technical Strategy NARROW BREADTH

Standing framing as last published in the May 2026 webinar.

Tech +20% on the Month vs. Several Major Sectors Flat — Defensive Playbook If the Mega-Caps Consolidate

Fundstrat’s Mark Newton has been pointing at a sharp narrowing of breadth under the index’s push to record highs: the tech sector ran roughly +20% on the month while several other major sectors stayed flat. His May webinar walked through whether the new highs are sustainable given the breadth gap, where crude/energy positioning sits with Iran headlines on the tape, and the defensive playbook he would lean into if mega-cap tech consolidates — including specific work on AAPL, NVDA, TSLA, META, PLTR, HOOD, BTC and ETH. The implicit caution: in a market this concentrated, the single most important variable is how the top of the bench trades.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

Composite Last at 59 — in “Greed” Since April 15

CNN’s Fear & Greed composite last printed 59 on Friday May 22 and has been in the “Greed” regime continuously since April 15, when the S&P 500 hit its first record high since the Iran war began. The headline number masks the same internal split the briefing has been flagging: Market Momentum, Put/Call Options and Safe-Haven Demand have been hovering in Extreme Greed, while Stock Price Breadth and Junk Bond Demand sit in Fear. The composite does not refresh on the holiday, so the first real read of post-strike sentiment will come Tuesday afternoon.

AAII Sentiment Survey OPTIMISM RESETS

Retail Bulls Drop 7.6 Pts to 31.7% — First Print Below the 37.5% Historical Average in Five Weeks

The latest AAII Investor Sentiment Survey shows bullish sentiment dropping 7.6 percentage points to 31.7%, the first reading below the 37.5% historical average in five weeks, with neutral up 0.6 to 24.7% and bearish jumping seven points. The shift looks like a positioning reset rather than a fundamental change — the prior week’s bullish print was 39.3% — but it lines up with the Krinsky breadth-divergence concern and the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator’s contrarian-sell triggering earlier this month. A market making records while retail bulls fade is precisely the configuration the technical desks have been watching for.

BlackRock Investment Institute — Weekly Commentary RISK ON

Carryover — last refresh dated May 4, 2026.

Earnings Strength Keeps Us Risk On — Mag 7 Still Over a Third of 2026 Earnings Growth

BlackRock’s Investment Institute reiterates an overweight to US and emerging-market equities anchored on the ongoing AI build-out and corporate earnings still being revised higher. The Mag 7 account for over a third of expected 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth in BII’s frame, and the firm is looking for broadening into early AI adopters in financials and selected healthcare. The view is conditional on the Strait of Hormuz reopening — an unresolved oil-price spike would change the calculus — and the firm leans into thematic exposures in infrastructure, defence and energy as evolving diversifiers given long Treasuries’ weakened hedging properties.

Real Investment Advice — Lance Roberts FED IN FLUX

April FOMC Minutes Read as Hawkish, but the Fed Is Largely Neutral — 7,517 Bull-Trigger, 7,336 First Test

RIA argues the April FOMC minutes read by markets as hawkish actually describe a Fed that is largely neutral, with members debating whether tariff, energy and Middle East shocks are transitory before committing in either direction. The April meeting saw three official dissenters worried about the easing-bias language; Fed-funds futures now price a 72% probability of at least one hike in the next year. With S&P 500 at 7,473.47 (0.6% below the May 14 ATH of 7,517.12), RIA flags 7,517 as the bull-trigger and 7,336 (the 20-day moving average) as the first downside test. PCE on Thursday and Iran headlines remain the binary macro drivers; the firm’s bull bias stays intact with 7,517 → 7,600 → 7,650 as the upside path and 7,336, 7,300, 7,200 and the 50/200-day moving averages (6,987 / 6,807) as the levels worth treating as buy zones on any pullback.

Real Investment Advice — Lance Roberts RECALIBRATE BEAR

Corrections vs. Bear Markets — Why the 20% Definition Is Obsolete in a Market 83% Above Trend

In a separate Monday piece, Lance Roberts argues the standard “20% = bear market” definition is structurally outdated given the S&P 500 is roughly 83% above its long-term trend line with the Shiller CAPE near 40 — about twice the historical median. Mapping mean reversion from the May 10 close, a 20% drop still leaves the market at ~32x CAPE, so 20% no longer signals a true regime change. The 2020, 2022 and the early-2026 Iran pullback all qualify as corrections within an ongoing 17-year bull, not true bear markets; the practical takeaway is to stop anchoring portfolio risk budgets to the 20% number and prepare for a 30–50%+ drawdown if the second half of the cycle finally arrives. The bull trend stays up — but position-sizing and stop-loss discipline have to account for deeper potential downside.

Finviz News Aggregator IRAN TUG-OF-WAR DOMINATES TAPE

Stock Futures Bid on Peace Hopes While Oil Whipsaws on New US Strikes — Dow Futures Up ~300 Points

The Finviz time-sorted news stream for Tuesday morning shows the dominant catalyst is the US-Iran narrative oscillating between peace-deal optimism and CENTCOM strikes near Hormuz, with Dow futures up roughly 300 points pre-bell on tentative deal hopes. Cross-cutting threads include BP ousting its chairman on serious conduct concerns, JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka saying equities are overpricing the risk of further Fed hikes, and a higher-for-longer Treasury-curve framing under new Fed Chair Warsh. The Bloomberg Premarket Movers list flags AutoZone, Nvidia, Okta, Redwire and Wolfspeed; China let its policy loan rate fall to a record low overnight, and a Wall Street push to overhaul Fed bank supervision is also in the mix.

InvestingLive — Justin Low BUY-THE-RUMOR, SELL-THE-FACT

Markets Reserve Some Caution on US-Iran Developments — the Framework Is a 60-Day Pause, Not a Resolution

Justin Low warns the looming US-Iran framework, with the MoU expected to be signed this week, is being mispriced as “ending the conflict” when in reality it primarily sets a roughly 60-day pause and reframes how nuclear talks proceed; Iran is unlikely to fully cede control of the Strait of Hormuz and would manage a conditional reopening. He flags classic buy-the-rumour, sell-the-fact risk as European futures pull back (DAX −0.3%, CAC 40 −0.2%) and S&P 500 futures soften from yesterday’s highs ahead of the US cash open. WTI sits at $91.95 (well off the overnight low of $89.40), the 10-year yield at 4.51% (off the day low of 4.49%), and gold −0.9% to $4,530. Sticking points include Iran’s frozen funds, per Fars news.

InvestingLive — Giuseppe Dellamotta CCI 10AM ET / ECB JUNE HIKE

US Consumer Confidence Headlines the Session — Consensus 92.0 vs Prior 92.8; ECB’s Sleijpen the Lone CB Speaker

InvestingLive’s session preview pegs US Consumer Confidence as the day’s only meaningful release in the American session, with consensus 92.0 vs prior 92.8; the print will likely produce a muted Fed reaction given the FOMC is firmly on hold around the Iran outcome. The European session is light (Spanish PPI, UK CBI). The piece notes the Fed has essentially abandoned its easing bias, with Waller pivoting back to inflation focus, and expects the easing-bias language to be removed at the June FOMC unless the US-Iran situation officially resolves first. ECB is widely expected to hike in June; BoE on hold in June, with the first 2026 hikes possible in September. ECB’s Sleijpen at 13:00 GMT / 09:00 ET is the only scheduled CB speaker.

ZeroHedge — Tyler Durden JAPAN OEMs LOSING EV RACE

Japan’s Auto Giants Are Losing the EV Race to China — Honda Posts First Net Loss Since 1957 IPO

ZeroHedge (citing Nikkei) reports Honda CEO Toshihiro Mibe last week walked back the 2021 pledge for 100% EV/FCV sales by 2040, calling the target “not realistic” and pivoting back toward hybrids after Honda’s first full-year net loss since its 1957 IPO. Nissan has posted two straight years of heavy losses, Toyota expects another annual-profit decline, and BYD/Geely are taking share with sub-two-year model cycles versus Japan’s four-to-five years, plus a BYD battery that charges 10% → 97% in about nine minutes. Toyota is deepening alliances with Suzuki, Mazda, Subaru and NTT; Nissan-Honda cooperation discussions continue post-merger collapse. The implication for futures positioning: Japanese auto names face structural margin and share pressure that may eventually reshape Nikkei and MSCI Japan composition.

ZeroHedge — Tyler Durden FERRARI −7% ON LUCE EV

Ferrari Shares Plunge After Analyst Slams the New EV as “Mix Between Honda and Tesla”

Ferrari shares fell ~6% in Milan after the Luce — the company’s first fully-electric four-door, five-seat car priced at €550,000 (~$640,000) — drew sharp Wall Street pushback. AIR Capital’s Pierre-Olivier Essig called the design a “mix between a Honda Accord EV and a Tesla,” Oddo BHF warned of margin dilution from high EV development costs and weaker residual values, and Oxcap’s Stuart Pearson said the aesthetic is challenging but may help the China question. Ferrari is now down ~9% YTD and roughly 40% off the early-2025 high, back near 2023 levels. Goldman’s Christian Frenes had earlier flagged hybrid Ferraris depreciating faster than ICE counterparts, reinforcing brand-risk concerns. Capital Markets Day 2025 set a 2030 revenue target of €9bn versus a Street estimate of €10bn.

InvestingLive — Live Feed Aggregate HORMUZ ENDGAME / GOLD-OIL WHIPSAW

“Shots Fired, Deal Closer” — Schnabel and Lane Reaffirm a June ECB Hike, IRGC Reports Downing a US Drone

InvestingLive’s live feed aggregates a coherent overnight narrative: an Asia-Pacific FX wrap headlined “shots fired, deal closer: Hormuz endgame in sight,” gold and silver slipping in Asia as markets read simultaneous CENTCOM strikes plus active Doha peace talks as deal-nearing rather than escalation, and Rubio saying Hormuz “will open one way or another.” Iran’s IRGC reported downing a US MQ-9 drone after identifying hostile aircraft entering Iranian airspace, citing the right to respond to a ceasefire breach. Oil futures plunged near 5% earlier with technical work flagging a trend-line target. ECB’s Schnabel said a June rate hike will be needed; Lane hinted markets are correct to price the June ECB hike.

The Market Ear (via ZeroHedge) HEAD FAKE OR NEXT LEG

“Head Fake or Next Leg Higher in Rates?” — The Curve Sets Up for a Defining Two-Week Window

The Market Ear’s overnight wrap, surfacing through ZeroHedge after the holiday close, frames the rates picture as a binary: either Friday’s 5.06% 30Y / 4.558% 10Y print marks a head fake into a renewed easing-trade leg, or the cash reopen confirms a structural next leg higher driven by the Treasury supply / Fed-demand story that Apollo’s Slok has been hammering on. The two-week window into Thursday’s PCE plus the first Warsh communication is the cleanest setup of the year for the rate market to choose a side — and equity desks are positioned accordingly, with curve-steepeners held in size but conviction trimmed.

The Market Ear (via ZeroHedge) MOST HATED TRADE

“The Most Hated Trade May Rip Again” — Long Bonds as the Contrarian Set-Up Into Data Week

A companion Market Ear piece, also pushed through ZeroHedge, makes the case that long-duration Treasuries are the “most hated trade” into the data week, set up to rip again if Thursday’s PCE prints with a 2-handle. The argument: positioning is short-duration after Waller’s hawkish speech and the FOMC dropping its easing bias, and any incremental dovish data point would flush the trade out fast given how thin volumes have run into the holiday. The piece pairs naturally with the Apollo “three forces” framing and the Kobeissi 37%-hike-odds chart — the consensus is unanimous in one direction, which is exactly when the squeeze gets violent.

Newsquawk — Europe Morning Wrap (via ZeroHedge) CENTCOM RECAP

European Open Wrap — Iran Responds, ECB Lane and Schnabel Reaffirm June Hike

Newsquawk’s European morning brief, mirrored on ZeroHedge, captures the overnight tape: CENTCOM’s “self-defense” strikes confirmed, IRGC counter-threats, oil whipsawing between the Hormuz-reopen and the strike-response narratives, and Brent off its worst levels by mid-morning. Cross-asset: European equities held up on US-Iran peace optimism; ECB’s Schnabel said a June rate hike will be needed and Lane hinted markets are right to price one in. The wrap is the single most useful pre-cash-open snapshot for desks who need a one-sentence overnight summary.

@DeItaone — Walter Bloomberg HASSETT ON HORMUZ

“Energy Prices Will Drop Once Hormuz Strait Opens” — NEC Director Anchors Administration Narrative

The desk-tape feed flagged NEC Director Kevin Hassett at 8:05 AM ET telling media that energy prices are set to fall further once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, framing the recent ceasefire and de-escalation track as the catalyst for cheaper oil and gasoline. The framing aligns with the Nikkei-reported timeline that Iran would clear mines within 30 days of an agreement, and is part of a stream of administration officials publicly anchoring oil-price expectations lower into the Hormuz reopen window. Hassett separately said the stock market is celebrating “because productivity is so high,” tying the equity-record narrative to the AI-capex / productivity boom.

@DeItaone — Walter Bloomberg IRAN VOWS RESPONSE

Iran’s Foreign Ministry: “Iran Will Respond and Will Not Hesitate in Defending Itself”

Iran’s Foreign Ministry warned at 7:42 AM ET that it will respond and not hesitate to defend itself, escalating rhetoric after the CENTCOM “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran Monday night. The headline crossed during the European session, walking back some of the optimism from Monday’s Nikkei Hormuz-reopen leak and pulling crude off its lows ahead of the cash open. Iran’s IRGC and Supreme Leader have also issued separate hawkish statements in the prior hour; the briefly-vanished “ceasefire” framing now hangs on whether the Doha track survives the strike response.

@DeItaone — Walter Bloomberg CENTCOM CONFIRMS STRIKES

US CENTCOM: US Forces Carry Out Strikes in Southern Iran in Self-Defense

US Central Command confirmed late Monday that US forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran, targeting missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to lay mines. This is the headline that put a bid back under crude into the Tuesday reopen and the development the ZeroHedge “self-defence strikes” wrap and Newsquawk Europe morning brief both anchor on. It complicates the Nikkei-reported Hormuz-reopen-in-30-days timeline; Iran’s IRGC immediately called it a ceasefire breach.

@DeItaone — Walter Bloomberg CHINA RESTRICTS AI TRAVEL

China Restricting Overseas Travel for Top AI Professionals at Private Firms Including Alibaba

The desk-tape flagged a report that China is restricting overseas travel for top AI professionals at private firms including Alibaba, a sign of escalating AI export-control countermeasures and human-capital lockdown. The headline ties into the broader US-China AI decoupling narrative and is marginally bullish for US-listed AI capex names that can recruit displaced PRC talent. It pairs with the ZeroHedge “China flooding DRAM/NAND” piece for the memory-complex story.

@KobeissiLetter FERRARI −7%

Ferrari Stock $RACE Falls Over −7% After Revealing the Design of Its First Electric Vehicle

Kobeissi flagged Ferrari $RACE down over 7% after the company unveiled the design of its first EV, with analysts calling the design a “mix between Honda and Tesla” per the ZeroHedge piece. The negative reaction undermines Ferrari’s premium-EV pricing strategy and adds to European auto-sector pain. It compounds with separate news that Japan’s auto giants are losing the EV race to China; the Luce reveal is one of the largest single-name pre-market casualties Tuesday.

@KobeissiLetter WTI < $90

US Oil Prices Extend Losses and Fall Below $90/Barrel for the First Time Since May 7

Kobeissi flagged WTI breaking below $90 a barrel for the first time since May 7 on Monday’s session, on the back of US-Iran peace-deal optimism and the Nikkei Hormuz-reopen-in-30-days leak. Crude has since stabilised around $92.90 after the CENTCOM strikes complicated the timeline. The post and the follow-on tape capture the round trip: from peace-deal optimism into the Monday close, to partial give-back overnight on strike headlines.

@KobeissiLetter ES FUTURES AT RECORD

S&P 500 Futures Surge to Their Highest Level on Record — Eight Consecutive Weekly Gains

Kobeissi flagged S&P 500 futures hitting an all-time high on Sunday night as markets rallied in anticipation of a US-Iran peace deal after the Geneva meeting. Nasdaq 100 futures also hit a record (+1.3%) and Japan’s Nikkei extended intraday gains to +3.5%. The post crystallises the “eight consecutive weekly gains” theme Kobeissi separately noted — the longest such streak in years — leaving positioning skewed to the chase into Tuesday’s first regular-hours session post-Memorial Day.

@KobeissiLetter CUMULATIVE PCE +28.5%

US PCE Inflation Has Surged +28.5% Since 2020 — Persistently Above Fed Target

Kobeissi posted a cumulative-PCE chart showing US PCE inflation up +28.5% since 2020, framing inflation as still running well above target into Thursday’s PCE preview. Pair with the May UMich revisions (1-yr inflation expectations 4.8%, 5–10y 3.9%) and the Cleveland Fed nowcast for May CPI at 4.18% y/y — this is the inflation-stickiness backdrop pushing the 30-yr UST yield into the 5%-handle zone and making Waller’s recent hawkish speech a market focal point.

@charliebilello NVDA MARGIN RECORD

Nvidia’s Net Profit Margin Surged to a Record High of 71% in Q1 — Up From 12% a Decade Ago

Bilello highlighted Nvidia’s Q1 net profit margin hitting an all-time high of 71%, up from 12% a decade ago, calling it a margin level “no company of this size has ever sustained.” With NVDA now ~8% of S&P 500 market cap, the Q1 earnings backdrop is the single biggest variable for the index melt-up that has pushed ES into the record zone. The post is part of his “State of the Markets” video drop and pairs with The Market Ear / ZeroHedge framing of an “AI Melt-Up Bubble — or Earnings Explosion?”

@charliebilello DIVERGENCE

S&P 500 at an All-Time High While Consumer Sentiment Is at an All-Time Low

Bilello flagged the historic divergence: the S&P 500 at all-time highs while UMich Consumer Sentiment sits at an all-time low, noting “we’ve never seen this before.” The disconnect captures the K-shaped reality — wealthy households driving spending, the broader public souring — and pairs with the May UMich Consumer Sentiment revision down to the record-low 44.8 print. It is the line every desk is watching the CCI and PCE data resolve this week.

@LizAnnSonders — Schwab CIO QUANTUM TURNAROUND

Tuesday Baskets & Sectors Update — Quantum Computing the Sharpest QTD Turnaround

Schwab CIO Liz Ann Sonders posted her standard Tuesday-morning baskets / sectors / breadth update through Friday’s close, highlighting quantum computing as the sharpest QTD turnaround basket after the March correction month. The series is the systematic chart-book traders consult for sector rotation and breadth context heading into the regular cash open, and it pairs with her separate breadth-MA charts and the Friday performance tables for S&P 500 and Mag 7.

@LizAnnSonders — Schwab CIO UMICH 44.8 RECORD LOW

May UMich Consumer Sentiment Revised Down to a Record Low 44.8 vs 48.2 Initial

Sonders flagged that the May UMich Consumer Sentiment Index final print was revised down to a record low of 44.8 from the 48.2 initial read — a sharp downside revision and a fresh series low — with current conditions and expectations both deteriorating further into final. The 1-year inflation expectations revised up to 4.8% (from 4.5%) and 5–10-year up to 3.9% (from 3.4%). It is the stagflation-ish data combo the bond market is clearly pricing into the 30-yr at the 5% handle.

@NickTimiraos — WSJ HAWKISH WALLER

Waller: Ditch the Easing Bias, Don’t Rule Out Hikes if Inflation Doesn’t Abate Soon

WSJ’s Nick Timiraos characterised Fed Governor Waller’s recent speech as hawkish: ditch the easing bias, don’t rule out hikes if inflation does not abate soon. Waller said markets were underpricing the risk of prolonged high energy prices feeding into inflation expectations. It is the most explicit hike-on-the-table framing from a current FOMC voter since the start of the Iran war and the catalyst for the 30-yr UST sitting at the 5% handle — the policy backdrop newly-sworn-in Chair Warsh inherits.

@NickTimiraos — WSJ WARSH SWORN IN

Kevin Warsh Sworn In as Fed Chair by Justice Clarence Thomas — First FOMC Is the June Meeting

Timiraos covered the White House swearing-in of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair on Friday, with President Trump telling Warsh to be “totally independent” while also signalling he expects rate cuts. Warsh’s theory of the Fed, per Timiraos’s earlier WSJ profile, is to “deter inflation the way you deter war — by being so credible you never have to use force.” The first FOMC under Warsh is the June meeting, and markets are positioned for something close to the opposite of what the President picked Warsh to do.

@JKempEnergy — Reuters LNG +5% YOY

Global LNG Exports Increased by 22 Million Tonnes (5%) in 2025 Compared With 2024

Reuters energy analyst John Kemp posted fresh data showing global LNG exports rose 5% (22 million tonnes) in 2025 versus 2024. It lands alongside the ZeroHedge framing that “European Gas Storage Can’t Survive 3 More Months of Hormuz” — EU gas storage is far below normal seasonal levels and one to three more months of disruption would create a major shortfall. The combination keeps gas spreads alive as a hedge into the strikes-vs-reopen tug-of-war.

@JKempEnergy — Reuters SPECS SHORT BRENT

Oil Bears Anticipate Re-Opening of Hormuz — Speculators Boosted Bearish Short Positions in Brent

Kemp flagged that speculative investors had been boosting bearish short positions in Brent crude into last weekend, anticipating the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under any US-Iran deal. The positioning data comes from the latest CFTC / ICE commitments. With the CENTCOM strikes overnight, this positioning skew is at risk of a sharp covering rally if Tehran’s rhetoric escalates further; it is the bearish-crude tilt that Kobeissi’s WTI-below-$90 print captured on Monday.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Latest Numbers Panel CPI +0.6%, PPI +1.4%

April CPI +0.6% m/m, Unemployment 4.3%, Payrolls +115k, PPI +1.4% — Setting the Inflation Stage for Thursday’s PCE

The BLS “Latest Numbers” panel shows April 2026 CPI rose 0.6% month over month, with headline unemployment holding at 4.3% on +115,000 nonfarm payrolls (preliminary). Producer Price Index for Final Demand jumped 1.4% in April (preliminary) — the hottest monthly read in over a year — alongside US import prices +1.9% (fuel-led) and export prices +3.3%. The most recent state release (May 22) showed April jobless rates lower in 3 states, higher in 2 and stable in 45 plus DC; nonfarm payrolls increased in only 6 states and were essentially unchanged in 44. The mix — hot CPI / PPI alongside soft state-level payroll breadth — frames Thursday’s April PCE print as the marquee tape-deciding data.

New York Fed — Survey of Consumer Expectations UNEMPLOYMENT FEAR 43.9%

Carryover — last published May 7, 2026 (April survey release).

1-Year Inflation Expectations Rise to 3.6%; Unemployment Fear Spikes to 43.9% — Highest Since April 2025

The April 2026 NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed median one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose 0.2 percentage point to 3.6%, while three- and five-year horizons were unchanged at 3.1% and 3.0% — confirming a short-end un-anchoring without a long-end break. Mean year-ahead unemployment probability climbed 0.4 percentage point to 43.9%, the highest reading since April 2025 and a notable bearish tilt in household labour expectations. Year-ahead earnings growth expectations rose 0.3 ppt to 2.7%; median gas-price growth expectations fell sharply by 4.3 ppts to 5.1% after spiking in March; credit-access perceptions deteriorated, but the probability of missing a debt payment fell 0.9 ppt to 11.4%, the lowest in over two years.

Conference Board — US Consumer Confidence MAY PRINT TODAY 10 AM ET

April CCI Edged Up 0.6 Pts to 92.8 — Today’s May Release Could Reset the Sentiment Narrative

The Conference Board’s last published reading (April 28) showed the Consumer Confidence Index rising 0.6 points to 92.8 (1985 = 100), with the Present Situation Index slipping 0.3 to 123.8 and the Expectations Index gaining 1.2 points to 72.2 — still well below the 80 recession-warning threshold. The April survey window captured both the temporary two-week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict beginning April 8 and the equity rebound that followed. Chief Economist Dana Peterson highlighted “material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices.” Today’s release at 10:00 AM ET is the next major data point and will frame the consumer-mood narrative for the week against U-Mich’s record-low 44.8 final.

Atlanta Fed — GDPNow Q2 NOWCAST +4.3%

GDPNow Tracking Q2 Real GDP at +4.3% Heading Into the PCE / GDP Data Bunch

GDPNow’s latest estimate for Q2 2026 real GDP growth stands at +4.3% as of the May 21 update, an upbeat tracking number that sits well above Blue Chip consensus and reframes the soft-data weakening narrative. The next update is May 28 — Thursday — when the BEA’s Q1 second estimate and Personal Income / Outlays (April PCE) land simultaneously and feed the model. The Atlanta Fed nowcast has been a hawkish counterweight to softening survey indicators (U-Mich 44.8, NY Fed unemployment fear 43.9%), and a print near the current trajectory would force desks to recalibrate any “stall-speed” thesis. The historical absolute error since 2011 is 0.77 percentage point.

Bureau of Economic Analysis — Release Schedule THURSDAY DOUBLE-HEADER

Thursday May 28 Brings Q1 GDP Second Estimate AND April Personal Income / Outlays (PCE) at 8:30 AM ET

The Bureau of Economic Analysis release schedule (page last modified today) confirms the marquee data event of this holiday-shortened week: Thursday May 28 at 8:30 AM ET brings the GDP Second Estimate and Corporate Profits for Q1 2026 side-by-side with Personal Income and Outlays for April 2026 (the April PCE print). With Atlanta Fed nowcast at +4.3% and BLS CPI / PPI running hot, the core PCE print is the single most important number this week for both rates and equity desks. There is no BEA release Tuesday, so the day’s macro action is back-loaded entirely behind Thursday.

Dallas Fed Economics FED-STAFF FORECAST EDGE

Fed Staff CPI-Forecasting Edge Eroded Pre-Pandemic but Persists on Downside Surprises

A May 21 piece by Alexander Chudik and Enrique Martinez Garcia compares Federal Reserve Board staff CPI forecasts with Blue Chip professional forecasts. The headline finding: the Fed’s traditional informational advantage in inflation forecasting eroded in the years preceding the pandemic but persists specifically on the downside — Fed staff continue to do better than the private sector when inflation surprises lower. With markets pricing the FOMC’s hawkish hold against soft-survey data, this research implies the Fed’s bias-correction is most operative in disinflation scenarios — which is what dealers and Eurodollar desks would need to see to reprice cuts.

Dallas Fed Economics HOUSING VULNERABILITY

“Unaffordable to Buy, Wealth-Building to Own” — Housing Remains a Macro Vulnerability

Enrique Martinez Garcia and Efthymios Pavlidis publish a May 19 framing piece arguing housing remains a macroeconomic vulnerability despite owner-side wealth gains. The combination of high house price-to-rent ratios and strained affordability is the structural issue, even as financial conditions look more resilient than before the 2008 bust. The argument frames a Fed dilemma: easing earlier would feed housing inflation, but holding rates restrictive longer continues to lock first-time buyers out while existing owners enjoy wealth effects — exacerbating the K-shaped consumer split that Conference Board and U-Mich data already reflect.

Federal Reserve Board — Speeches & Testimony WARSH SILENT

No Fresh Board Speech Yet — Warsh’s First Public Remarks Are Still Ahead of the Tape

The Federal Reserve Board speeches page shows no new Board-level speech posted since Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman’s March 3, 2026 remarks on liquidity resiliency. The 2026 speeches archive confirms the absence of any public remarks from new Chair Kevin Warsh, sworn in Friday May 22 — meaning the first official Warsh communication is still ahead and is the single largest binary event ahead of Thursday’s data. The blackout-style silence is notable because the FOMC dropped its easing bias at the May meeting; a hawkish Warsh debut could trigger a violent curve repricing, while a dovish-pragmatic tone could reopen the cuts trade.

Federal Reserve Board — FEDS Notes TARIFF PASS-THROUGH

Carryover — last FEDS Note published March 5, 2026.

“The Slow Climb: How Tariffs Gradually Raised Retail Prices in 2025” — A Direct Read on Today’s PCE Setup

The most recent FEDS Note (March 5) by Sinem Hacioglu-Hoke, Sarojini Malladi and Leo Feler uses an item-level retail spending dataset to examine tariff-related retail price changes by country of production. The Dallas Fed (May 5) parallel finding that “effects of realized tariff changes on PCE prices peaked in first quarter 2026” suggests the April PCE print landing Thursday should show tariff-pass-through deceleration — a directionally dovish read if confirmed. Combined with the April BLS CPI +0.6% headline and PPI +1.4%, the Fed-staff framing is that the tariff impulse to retail prices is becoming a one-time level effect rather than a persistent inflation driver — critical context for the Warsh-era FOMC.