Goldman Sachs (Kostin / Snider) CARRYOVER

Goldman’s published YE2026 SPX target sits at 7,600, anchored on FY26 EPS of $305–309 (+12% growth) and a forward P/E of 22x they characterize as a “fundamental floor.” Outgoing chief strategist Kostin and successor Snider co-authored the call. With cash SPX printing 7,230 Friday and ES −0.5% intraday Mon to 7,217, only ~5% upside to target remains — the structural target-vs-price gap that has pushed sell-side toward upside-revision pressure. The Goldilocks framing relies on Fed cuts that CME FedWatch now prices at ~10% odds for the full year — an assumption Kashkari’s Sunday hike-talk directly challenges.

Morgan Stanley (Mike Wilson) — published Apr 30 / circulated May 1 CARRYOVER

Wilson reiterated his SPX YE2026 target of 7,800, telling Daily Hodl the biggest risk to stocks is increased volatility in bond prices — not the Iran conflict. Mon’s Hormuz risk-premium leak and Brent compression below Friday’s $111 close to $107.38 effectively validate the Wilson framing: oil moved hard but rates stayed anchored at 4.39%. Cash at 7,230 leaves him +7.9% headroom to target; bond-vol expansion (which JC Parets and Strazza echoed in their April 30 podcast) is the variable to watch. The May 12 CPI print is the next bond-vol trigger.

JPMorgan Strategy CARRYOVER

JPMorgan’s published 2026 YE SPX target is 7,600, in line with Goldman. No fresh Mon May 4 strategy note surfaced. The compressed sell-side range (Goldman 7,600 / JPM 7,600 / Yardeni 7,700 / Wilson 7,800) means Wall Street consensus is now within striking distance of cash — structurally, the next move in targets is up or sideways, but Berkshire’s record $397.4B cash + Q1 net equity sales + Greg Abel’s “no break-up” line is the visible counterweight from the most-watched non-strategist seat.

Yardeni Research CARRYOVER ROTATION CALL

Ed Yardeni reaffirmed his SPX 7,700 YE26 target with an FY26 EPS path of $268 → $310 (+15.67%) and lifted his “Roaring 2020s” base case to 60% from 50%. Bear case held at 20%. The structural rotation: Yardeni ended his 15-year Tech overweight on XLK and Comm Services (XLC) and upgraded Health Care (XLV) to Overweight. Drivers cited: Trump affordability focus, OBBB tax bill, boomer retirement spending, the Fed rate cut path (now priced out post-Kashkari), and the AI capex envelope.

Census Bureau Factory Orders — March release (today 10:00 AM ET) FRESH

Today’s 10:00 AM ET Factory Orders for March printed +1.4% MoM, exactly in line with consensus +1.4%. Durables confirmed +0.8% (matching the April 29 Advance), ex-transport +0.9%, computers/electronics +3.7% — the AI-capex tell remains intact at the order level. The print is a non-event for the rates tape because (a) it matched consensus and (b) it pre-dates the Iran shock that began driving the inflation/labor narrative. The next GDPNow update Tue May 5 will incorporate this data along with the durable goods detail.

ISM PMI Report on Business — April release May 1, 10:00 ET FRIDAY READ

Friday’s April Manufacturing PMI printed 52.7 (unchanged from March, slightly below 53.0 consensus), the 4th straight expansion month. Prices Paid surged to 84.6 — highest since April 2022. Employment fell to 46.4 — sharpest 4-month contraction, worst 2026 print. Survey commentary skewed 2.2-to-1 negative on Iran-war uncertainty. Stagflation tape giving Hammack/Kashkari/Logan dissenters analytical cover — and the explicit hawkish framing for Kashkari’s Sunday Face the Nation hike-talk.

Kobeissi Letter — Big Tech capex tracker

Kobeissi’s aggregate Big Tech capex tracker now flags 2026E spending +98% YoY to $715 billion, with all 11 SPX sectors expected to contribute to earnings growth and total SPX EPS growth projected to exceed 18%. Kobeissi separately noted Russell 3000 buyback authorizations YTD +36% YoY to $428 billion, +176% above 2020. The supply-side bull case carrying into the open — the cleanest counter to Berkshire’s record $397.4B cash + $24.1B Q1 net sales signal. AMD/ARM Tue post-bell + PLTR tonight will test the AI capex flow-through narrative directly.

CME FedWatch — implied probabilities post-Kashkari Sunday FRESH

Market-implied probability of a June rate cut sits near 5%. Futures suggest the current 3.50–3.75% target range is the resting state with only 10% odds of any cut in 2026 and ~6% odds of a near-term hike — the latter modestly higher post-Kashkari’s Sunday Face the Nation hike-talk. Hot Prices Paid in ISM, the Hormuz whipsaw, and an Atlanta GDPNow trim to 3.5% leave no Fed easing path until at least Q3. The ~1-in-3 hike odds by April 2027 cited at the FOMC remains in pricing.

Jonathan Krinsky — BTIG FEATURED TECHNICAL ANALYST CARRYOVER

Krinsky’s late-April note flagged the rally rubber band as stretched and likely to snap, with semiconductors hitting extreme overbought. He highlighted an unprecedented software/semiconductor spread — software vs SOX ratio at 43% below 200-day MA — and said the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF tested $77 multiple times before quickly recovering, a classic “false breakdown” pattern. NVDA $170 is cited as the major support floor. Mon’s tape partly validates the rotation thesis: the Tech-Software ETF posted its best day in ~1 year with MSFT/ORCL/PLTR/CRM/PANW leading, even as ES/NQ trade red — the rotation under the index level is real.

JC Parets / Steve Strazza — All Star Charts (April 30 podcast) CARRYOVER

Parets and Strazza outline why the bull market is entering a “powerful new phase.” Evidence cited: rallying transports, small caps, and emerging markets all confirming. Highlights the “scoop and score” technical pattern back to ATHs. Tactical implementation: short-dated calls and ratio charts to identify rotating leadership. Calls out a commodity supercycle (consistent with copper $5.94/lb +27.83% YoY) and potential major volatility expansion in the bond market — echoing Wilson’s “bond-vol is the biggest risk” framing into May 12 CPI.

Charlie Bilello — Week in Charts (4/29) CARRYOVER

Bilello’s weekend chart pack: SPX/NDX extended gains to fresh ATHs, rising for a 5th consecutive week. SPX +0.9% WoW, Dow +0.5%, NDX +1.1%. Gas prices at $4.39/gal — biggest 9-week move in 30 years. The historical base rate after weeks like this: strength historically begets strength. Counter-tell sharpening Mon: Berkshire net-sold $24.1B in Q1 paired with Abel ruling out break-up — the dispersion between historical base rate and Buffett positioning is now the cleanest read of cycle phase.

Liz Ann Sonders — Schwab (May 1 weekly) CARRYOVER

Sonders’ weekly podcast and CNBC hits framed her as “surprised at the relative resilience” of equity markets given the war/inflation/Fed-transition backdrop. She continues to push the rotation narrative since early March: the momentum trade is now a rotation trade. Her ongoing concern is concentration in cap-weighted indexes — the rally is top-heavy with mega-caps doing the heavy lifting. Her four risk pillars: war, inflation, deficits, and the Fed handover. Mon’s tape (software best day ~1Y vs index red) is the rotation in real time.

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting — Sunday May 3 (Becky Quick / CNBC coverage) FRESH

Berkshire’s Sunday annual meeting in Omaha put a generational sentiment tell on the tape. Cash pile at record $397.4 billion; Q1 saw $24.1B of net equity sales — meaning Buffett spent the quarter selling into Mag 7 strength. Greg Abel ruled out a Berkshire break-up in his first meeting as CEO with Buffett observing only; Buffett endorsed. Quick’s reporting captured Buffett’s “gambling mood” characterization of current market behavior. Pair this with AAII bears > bulls + NAAIM 94.15 — the sentiment crosscurrents are the cleanest they’ve been all year.

Reuters Morning Bid · Wayne Cole (May 4) FRESH

Cole’s Mon Morning Bid frames the open around Trump’s “Project Freedom” weekend announcement — 15,000 troops, guided-missile destroyers, and 100 aircraft escorting roughly 900 trapped vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil reaction is muted given OPEC+’s Sunday agreement to lift June output a symbolic 188 kb/d. Rates desks position for Friday’s NFP and the back-half of US earnings (AMD, Palantir, Disney) with thin Asia liquidity from Japan/China holiday closures and the UK May Bank Holiday adding to the thin global tape.

CNBC Pre-Markets / Daily Open (May 4) FRESH

CNBC’s Daily Open framed Project Freedom as “landing with a whimper.” Pre-market dashboard showed S&P futures −0.56%, Nasdaq-100 −0.42%, Dow futures −386 (−0.78%) as Iran missile-strike claim (since denied by Pentagon) rekindled stagflation worries pre-open. Notable single-name moves: BlackBerry +12.4%, GameStop/eBay +5%/+10.5% on the reported $56B takeover bid. Asia mixed as proxies: Hang Seng +1.8%, Kospi +4.26%; ASX 200 −0.28%.

Yahoo Finance Stock Market Today live blog (May 4) FRESH

Yahoo Finance’s live blog tracks futures muted-to-weak after the weekend whiplash and Iran missile headline: S&P fut 7,230.25 (−0.38%), Dow fut 49,331 (−0.63%), Nasdaq fut 27,743.75 (−0.33%). The Hormuz "Project Freedom" launch dominates with the GameStop/eBay $56B bid framed as standout single-name catalyst. Friday’s April NFP is the gate of the week — economists eye +60–73k vs March +178k. The semiconductor earnings tail (AMD, ARM, LSCC) is positioned as the chip-cycle test before NVDA reports later in May.

Wall Street Breakfast · Seeking Alpha (May 4) FRESH

Seeking Alpha’s flagship one-pager leads the Mon tape with the heavyweight earnings list: PLTR + TSN report tonight, with AMD, ARM, DIS, UBER, MCD, ABNB, C, PFE, RIVN, SHOP, MAR, CART, DASH, COIN, GILD, ABT and NOW staggered across the week. Macro gates: Friday NFP (back-of-week) and Tuesday May 12 CPI. Fed-speak light with the FOMC blackout lifted post-Wednesday’s hold. Warsh confirmation floor vote week-of-May-11 positioned as a rates risk into Powell’s May 15 chair-term expiry — with Tillis having lifted his hold, glide-path now priced in.

CNBC European Markets Open (May 4) FRESH

European autos hammered on Trump’s 25% Section 232 EU auto tariff threat: Continental −5.2% (worst Stoxx 600 print), Mercedes −1.9%, Volkswagen −1.7% — despite the February SCOTUS ruling that struck large parts of the Trump tariff agenda. Brent −0.8% to $107.38, WTI −0.84% to $101.10 — off Friday close after Iran missile claim was denied and Project Freedom convoy cleared. Trading conditions described as thin owing to UK May Bank Holiday and Japan Greenery Day. Project Freedom — 15,000 troops, destroyers, 100 aircraft — named as the pivotal weekend headline.

Iran/Hormuz Headline Wire (Sun May 3 — Mon May 4 mid-session) FRESH

Iran’s Fars News overnight reported missiles struck a US warship near Jask; a US official and the Pentagon denied the strike. UKMTO subsequently reported two separate ship attacks in the broader area. Project Freedom day-one: a 5-tanker convoy transited the Strait cleanly. Trump signaled rejection of Iran’s 14-point proposal Sunday on Truth Social (“can’t imagine that it would be acceptable”), warning strikes could resume “if Tehran misbehaves.” Iran said it received the US response. Net result: oil bumped briefly in Sun-night Globex on the Iran claim, then compressed during Mon morning — Brent now $107.38 (off Fri $111 close, off May 1 intraday high $116); WTI $101.10 (off Fri $105 close).

Reuters / CNBC OPEC+ Post-Meeting Wire (Sun May 3)

OPEC-7 (post-UAE exit) formally ratified the ~188 kb/d June output increase at Sunday’s video meeting — the third consecutive monthly hike since the Hormuz closure, the first such meeting without UAE. The decision held despite the Strait of Hormuz disruption (~20% of global oil flow remains affected). Combined with Project Freedom day-1 success, the Hormuz risk-premium has compressed dramatically Mon morning — Brent off ~$9 from May 1 intraday high $116 (off ~$4 from Friday’s $111 close) — making long-energy the squeezed trade today.

PRC Commerce Ministry · China response on Iran sanctions (May 4) FRESH

China’s Ministry of Commerce on Mon morning blocked US sanctions on five Chinese refiners identified as buying Iranian crude, signaling Beijing will not enforce the parallel sanctions regime that Washington has been building around the Hormuz framework. The move adds a parallel pressure point on the Iran-pricing supply narrative and complicates the Trump administration’s leverage architecture. China onshore A-shares are CLOSED May 4–5 for Labour Day; the response routed through diplomatic channels rather than market price action.

Mike Derby — Reuters Fed Wire / Kashkari Sunday Face the Nation (May 3–4) FRESH

Derby’s Sunday wire-up captured Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari’s Face the Nation appearance, where he explicitly refused to rule out HIKES, framing the Iran/Hormuz energy shock as “as big or larger than Russia/Ukraine” and saying rates may need to “move in the opposite direction.” The framing goes meaningfully beyond his Apr 29 dissent and is the cleanest hawkish pivot from a sitting FOMC voter post the most fractured FOMC meeting since 1992.

Walter Bloomberg / @DeItaone · CNBC fast flow (May 4) FRESH

DeItaone-style flow chats Sunday flashed the Iran missile claim on a US warship near Jask — nudging ES futures lower in Sun-night Globex with Brent printing intraday around the May 1 $116 reference area — then a US official denial and Pentagon non-confirmation. The whipsaw became the morning’s tape lesson: headlines are now in a fatigue regime where actual escalation is required to move price beyond a 30-minute window. Same flow channel pushed Trump’s 25% EU auto-tariff language hitting Continental/Mercedes/VW, the BlackBerry +12.4% pop, and the GameStop/eBay $56B bid.

Bloomberg / CNBC — Project Freedom day-one (May 4) FRESH

Bloomberg and CNBC ran companion coverage of Trump’s naval-escort op’s first day. Day-1 detail: a 5-tanker convoy transited the Strait cleanly under escort — the operational success that has Brent compressing below Friday’s $111 close to $107.38 (off May 1’s $116 intraday high). Asia/Mideast desks framed it as “Gulf fatigue”: investors accepting the Iran stalemate, earnings (121 SPX names this week) now the tape driver. Project Freedom remains live and binary — an Iranian rejection or kinetic incident against an escorted convoy re-arms the war premium.

The Kobeissi Letter · @KobeissiLetter (May 3–4) FRESH

Kobeissi’s weekend post stack flagged Big Tech capex +98% YoY to $715B 2026E and Russell 3000 buyback authorizations YTD +36% YoY to record $428B, +176% above 2020. At a historical execution rate of ~90%, US corporates are positioned to absorb supply. The capex+buybacks combination is the cleanest counter to Berkshire’s record cash signal. AMD/ARM Tue post-bell + PLTR tonight will test whether the AI capex flow reaches the order book at the right names.

Becky Quick — CNBC / Berkshire annual meeting (May 3–4) FRESH

Quick’s coverage of Berkshire’s Sunday annual meeting put a generational tell on the Mon open. $397.4B record cash pile, $24.1B of Q1 net equity sales, and Buffett’s “gambling mood” characterization. Greg Abel ruled out a Berkshire break-up in his first meeting as CEO with Buffett observing only; Buffett endorsed the position. Quick’s coverage also documented the “60” jersey raised in tribute to Buffett’s 60 years at the helm.

Nick Timiraos — WSJ · @NickTimiraos (May 4) FRESH

Timiraos’ Mon angle turns on the Pirro/IG procedural pivot: with the criminal probe against Sen. Tillis paused pending IG findings, Tillis lifted his hold on Warsh and Senate confirmation is now on glide-path before Powell’s May 15 chair-term expiry. Timiraos has been emphasizing for weeks that “new Fed chair may struggle to deliver Trump’s desired rate cuts” — now operative because the dissenters’ (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan, Miran) public posture sets a hawkish baseline that Warsh would have to fight against. Powell remains as governor with a vote.

Liz Ann Sonders / Jim Bianco (Bianco Research) — May 2026 outlook FRESH POSITIONING

Bianco Research May 2026 commentary: outlook still “very strong US economy + sticky inflation well above Fed’s 3% target,” but the Iran conflict triggered “large market moves that required a reaction.” Bianco INDEX shifted to neutral duration AND neutral curve relative to benchmark in April. Conviction reduced from 20% to 10% sizing. Trigger to redeploy: Hormuz tanker transit normalization + crude lower. Sonders’ continuing posture: “surprised at relative resilience” + concentration of gains in mega-cap tech. Combined: institutional positioning is patient/light — explains the persistent defensive bid into ATH tape, no FOMO from real money desks.

John Kemp · @JKempEnergy CARRYOVER

Kemp’s carryover post stack: Brent prices climbing in May/June contracts as US-Iran diplomacy moves slowly and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to non-escorted tanker traffic. US crude exports averaging 4.7 mbd through April vs 4.0 mbd a year ago. Kemp forecasts global oil demand declines in 2026 because of the war. With Brent now $107.38 (off Friday $111 close, off May 1 intraday high $116) the supply-side narrative is being tested in real time by Project Freedom day-1 success.

Charlie Bilello — Week in Charts (4/29) CARRYOVER

Bilello’s weekend chart pack: SPX/NDX extended gains to fresh ATHs, rising for a 5th consecutive week. Gas prices at $4.39/gal — biggest 9-week move in 30 years. The historical base rate after weeks like this: strength begets strength. Counter-tell sharpening Mon: Berkshire net-sold $24.1B equities in Q1 plus Abel’s “no break-up” line. The dispersion between historical base rate and Buffett positioning is the cleanest read of cycle phase.

Treasury yields / VIX tape — Bloomberg/CNBC fast flow (May 4) FRESH

10Y holds 4.39% mid-session despite the Iran whipsaw; 2Y 3.88%, 30Y 4.97%. The fixed-income tape was the cleanest read of headline-fatigue: yields essentially didn’t respond to the Brent $116 gap. VIX near 17.5 with options flow showing skew demand into NFP week. Real-money desks waiting for Friday May 8 NFP: cons +73k vs March 178k. Apr CPI Tue May 12 also in the wide-priced window with 3.5%+ print risk per Bilello’s nowcast pack.

Census Bureau Factory Orders March 2026 · today 10:00 AM ET FRESH

The Census Bureau’s full M3 report on manufacturers’ shipments, inventories and orders for March 2026 printed at 10:00 AM ET this morning at +1.4% MoM, exactly in line with consensus +1.4%. Durables confirmed +0.8% (matching the April 29 Advance), ex-transport +0.9%, computers/electronics +3.7%. The print is a non-event for the rates tape because (a) it matched consensus, (b) it pre-dates the Iran shock, and (c) the headline M3 is rarely a market-mover. The +3.7% computers/electronics line is the AI-capex tell at the order level, supportive of the Kobeissi $715B 2026E capex framework.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (May 1, next update Tue May 5) FRESH

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q2 2026 sits at 3.5%, lowered from 3.7% on Apr 30 after the May 1 ISM Manufacturing read. Real PCE growth fell to 2.5% from 2.7%; real gross private domestic investment to 8.3% from 8.6%. The next update lands Tuesday May 5 and will incorporate today’s in-line Factory Orders data. The 3.5% nowcast vs 1.6% Conference Board LEI 2026 forecast vs 1.8% ISM-bridge is the trio of growth signals heading into NFP — a soft jobs print could rapidly compress that range from above.

Moody’s Analytics — Mark Zandi (May 2) CARRYOVER

Zandi has shifted from his late-2025 call for three Fed cuts in H1 2026 to a view that the Fed will not cut at all this year. He cites the Iran-driven oil shock, with Brent recently above $126/bbl, as feeding directly into transport and production costs and lifting inflation expectations. Recession odds near 40–50% for H2 2026; warned a wage-price spiral could force additional tightening. Even traditionally dovish private-sector economists are no longer modeling near-term cuts ahead of NFP May 8 and CPI May 12. With Kashkari’s Sunday hike-talk, Zandi’s framework is now more centrist than out-of-consensus.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence (April 28 release)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose 0.6 points to 92.8 in April from 92.2 in March. The Present Situation Index slipped 0.3 points to 123.8, while the Expectations Index gained 1.2 points to 72.2. The April survey window of April 1–22 captured the temporary two-week ceasefire that began April 8 and the equity rebound. Chief Economist Dana Peterson cited material concern over rising gasoline prices linked to the Iran war. Reading sits well below the 100 threshold often used to flag broader optimism.

BEA Personal Income & Outlays / PCE (April 30 release)

March PCE inflation ran hot. Headline PCE rose 0.7% MoM, lifting Y/Y to 3.5%. Core PCE — the Fed’s preferred gauge — climbed 0.3% MoM and 3.2% Y/Y. Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE 2.4%; Cleveland Fed Median PCE +0.3% MoM. All readings landed in line with consensus but well above the Fed’s 2% target. The Iran war and oil surge were primary drivers, complicating the policy backdrop heading into the April 29 FOMC and providing direct cover for the three hawkish dissents and Kashkari’s Sunday hike-talk.

SLOOS Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey · Q2 2026 release queued (Mon PM)

The Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey for Q2 2026 is queued for release Mon PM. The release will be the first credit pulse since the Iran war began, capturing how banks tightened (or eased) C&I, CRE, and consumer-loan terms during the period covering the Hormuz closure and oil shock. Tighter standards across the board would validate Bianco’s neutral-duration positioning and add to the consensus-defensive read. Looser standards would be a constructive surprise — a credit signal that the supply-side bull case (capex + buybacks) is being financed.

NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (April release)

The NY Fed SCE showed Americans’ views on current and future financial situations soured sharply in April. Households’ perceptions of current and future financial situations deteriorated; respondents projected slower gains in income and earnings vs March, and expected unemployment to rise. Spending expectations rose despite the gloom; inflation expectations were mixed. Reflects the combination of the Iran war oil shock, ongoing tariff uncertainty, and a labor market increasingly viewed as softening.

Kashkari — CBS Face the Nation (Sun May 3) FRESH

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari appeared on Face the Nation Sunday and went meaningfully further than his April 29 hawkish dissent. He explicitly refused to rule out a HIKE, framing the Iran/Hormuz energy shock as “as big or larger than Russia/Ukraine” and saying rates may need to “move in the opposite direction.” The framing aligns with CME FedWatch ~1-in-3 hike odds by April 2027. Combined with Hammack and Logan, the regional president bloc has effectively pre-committed to forcing removal of the easing bias at June 16‑17.

Warsh Senate Confirmation — Tillis lifts hold (May 4) FRESH

The most consequential Mon-morning Fed-tape input is Sen. Tillis lifting his hold on Kevin Warsh after the Pirro/IG-deferral pivot — with the criminal probe paused pending IG findings, the procedural blocker is removed. Senate confirmation is now on glide-path before Powell’s May 15 chair-term expiry. Warsh cleared the Senate Banking Committee on April 29 in a 13‑11 party-line vote; Sen. Fetterman (D-PA) had already indicated he’d vote yes. Floor vote expected the week of May 11. The paradoxical political read: Kashkari’s Sunday hawkishness gives Warsh political cover — he inherits a committee where dissenters are publicly committed to the hawkish baseline regardless of his preferences.

FOMC Decision & Dissents · April 29 CARRYOVER

The April 29 FOMC kept rates at 3.50–3.75% in an 8‑4 vote — the most dissents at a single meeting since 1992. Three regional presidents — Hammack (Cleveland), Kashkari (Minneapolis), Logan (Dallas) — dissented hawkishly, opposing the easing bias language. Hammack stated the easing bias was “no longer appropriate” given the outlook. Kashkari objected to providing forward guidance and warned the Hormuz price-shock could be “much larger than is currently expected.” Governor Miran dissented dovishly, favoring a 25bp cut. Powell signaled the “center” was moving toward removing the easing bias as soon as June 16‑17.

Powell Press Conference · April 29 CARRYOVER

Powell confirmed he will step aside as chair when his term expires May 15 but will remain on the Fed Board through 2028, citing Trump’s legal attacks as having “left me no choice.” The “center” of FOMC thinking moving toward removing the easing bias as soon as June 16‑17. Powell staying on the Board lends continuity but adds an unusual lame-duck dynamic to May FOMC speeches and complicates Warsh’s path to assembling a majority for cuts after his expected May 11-week confirmation.

NY Fed Liberty Street Economics · May 1 K-shaped research CARRYOVER

NY Fed researchers Chakrabarti, Pham, Pierce and Pinkovskiy published two companion Liberty Street posts on May 1 examining the K-shaped economy. The first tracks who is driving spending growth across income segments. The second documents that since late 2022, low-income households have consistently faced higher inflation than middle and high-income households, restraining their spending. The work is the analytical bridge from the weekend crypto crash — concentrated wealth-effect — to the contagion question for Mag 7 and high-income discretionary. Highly relevant context for Friday’s NFP and the consumption-resilience debate.

FEDS Notes · April 2 (breakeven employment) CARRYOVER

An April 2 FEDS Notes paper estimates breakeven employment growth at <10k/month given collapsing labor force growth from immigration enforcement and demographics. Implication for NFP Friday: a +50k handle is technically still labor-tightening and gives the Fed cover to hold; a sub-+25k print, especially paired with U/E spike to 4.5%+, would trigger Sahm-rule-adjacent recession reprice. The asymmetry around the +73k consensus is the cleanest framing — small misses absorbed, deep misses regime-changing.

Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting · through May 4

The Cleveland Fed publishes daily nowcasts of headline and core CPI and PCE inflation for the current month and quarter. Heading into CPI Tue May 12 for April, the model is the most timely public read on whether the Iran-driven oil surge above $126 Brent and subsequent retreat (now $107 after the Mon $116 whipsaw) has flowed into core readings. With March headline PCE at 3.5% YoY, core at 3.2%, and Brent compressing back to $107 today after May 1’s $116 intraday high, the nowcast trajectory will set the tone for the hawk-vs-dove debate ahead of the June 16‑17 FOMC.