Futures
Pre‑Market Briefing

BofA’s Subramanian moved explicitly to a take-profits posture in a Tuesday-afternoon note republished by ZeroHedge (Jun 9, 13:58 ET). The headline: “Too Many Red Flags — BofA Tells Clients To Take Profits Amid Spike In Dot-Com Bubble Similarities.” The pivotal line: “Bear-market signposts have risen to 70%, which matches the average of prior market peaks.” Subramanian flagged that the five worst SOX days now include two from 2000, two from 2020, plus Friday June 5 of this year — the worst single-day SOX move since 2020. The note arrives the same week Goldman’s strategist Pasquariello says “balance of risks favors bulls” but Chief Strategist concedes “getting closer” to excess — the sell-side is openly fractured into CPI.

Hartnett’s framework anchors the bear case into the 8:30 AM print. Per ZeroHedge’s CPI Preview piece (timestamped this morning, Jun 10 08:12 ET): “In the past 100 years once CPI crosses 4% on average, the S&P is down 4% in the next 3 months.” The six-month figure runs −7%. With consensus pegged at 4.2% YoY headline and the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast at 4.18%, the 4% threshold gets crossed even on an in-line print — which is what ZeroHedge means by “even in-line is damage.” Hartnett pairs the call with the fact that the market is now fully pricing a 25 bp Fed HIKE by the December meeting.

DB’s Jim Reid (Jun 9, 21:40 ET via ZeroHedge republish) takes the dot-com analog from a different angle — will the IPO wave derail equities? His combined work with Binky Chadha and Parag Thatte concludes that issuance waves coincide with rather than cause peak markets, but the framing line stands: “Whether we ultimately hit 2000 or not, this still feels like 1999 for now.” Two desks (BofA Subramanian, DB Reid), same vibes, slightly different triggers — identical 1999 analog.

GS trader Chris Lucas dropped “5 more WTF ETF charts” (ZeroHedge republish, Jun 10 01:50 ET) focused on the speculative short-side leverage piling into semis. His phrase: “The sheer trading power of SOXS has been nothing short of astounding.” Reads through to bearish positioning building in the very names AVGO’s guide just hit — flow desk flagging that the unwind has both real money de-risking AND levered shorts piling on.

The Market Ear’s overnight note (Jun 10 00:38 ET via ZeroHedge): “Nobody is in control. Violent intraday swings, growing leverage, rising supply, and mounting warning signs.” The frame: “Bulls point to oversold conditions and strong demand. Bears point to leverage, rising supply, and growing signs of speculative excess.” The Market Ear’s companion note “AI Trades’ Fragility Problem” (Jun 8) reads the SOX-led Friday move as a vol-skew break rather than a single-stock event — which confirms today’s VXN +9.81% as part of the same regime.

Sonders posted ~06:30 ET (pre-fetch hour) on X: “Wholesale inventories being drawn down at a sharp pace relative to sales … ratio of both has fallen further.” The macro-flow read: inventory-to-sales compression implies demand still outpacing supply at the wholesale layer, which is inflationary at the margin and confirms the hot-CPI risk into 8:30. A clean bull-counter to the dispersion bears.

Roberts (Jun 9, 15:50 ET via ZeroHedge): “Rising stock valuations are provoking a wave of planned equity issuance. That often precedes a correction in prices or even the end of the primary bull market.” Cross-confirms DB Reid’s IPO-wave thesis from a separate authoring desk — with SpaceX pricing at $1.77T this Thursday and listing Friday under SPCX, the supply pipeline is loaded heading into Warsh’s debut dot plot.

Newsquawk’s US Market Open wrap (Jun 10 13:18 GMT via ZeroHedge): “Quiet trade into US CPI, Crude/DXY flat, equities lower.” Adds the Iran-strike layer: “US launched fresh strikes on Iran in response to Monday’s downing of an Apache helicopter; the mission was a ‘proportional response’ to Iranian aggression, while President Trump called it ‘very strong and powerful’.” A separate Newsquawk wrap notes the 3Y note auction Tuesday “showed some improvement” — mildly supportive read-through for today’s 10Y at 1:00 PM ET.

The Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcasting page updated yesterday pegs May headline CPI at +0.46% m/m / +4.18% y/y and core at +0.23% m/m / +2.82% y/y — essentially in line with Street consensus of +4.2% / +2.9% (FactSet’s John Butters has the median pinned at 4.2% with zero spread between high and low estimate, an unusually tight setup). The PCE nowcast prints +0.40% m/m / +3.99% y/y headline and +0.27% / +3.33% core. The June nowcast tracks +0.12% / +0.23% — suggesting the energy passthrough is already starting to roll off in real time, but May is the print Warsh will be staring at when he writes his first dot plot.

ZeroHedge’s preview frames the asymmetry: “The May inflation print due at 8:30am on Wednesday — and which comes as the market is now fully pricing in a 25 basis point hike by the December meeting — has the potential to inflict some serious damage on the market not only if it prints hot to estimates (4.2% YoY for headline, 2.9% for core), but even if it comes in line with expectations — which would be the highest since July 2023 — in light of higher-than-expected NFP numbers last Friday, which may affirm an end to the Fed’s easing cycle.” The April YoY was 3.8% (vs 3.7% estimate). A 4.2% YoY print would be the largest headline since April 2023 (4.9%).

Goldman’s 2026 inflation playbook (TheStreet republish Jun 9) estimates 72% of tariff costs have passed through to consumer prices after 12 months, adding 0.8 percentage points to current YoY core PCE. Their year-end forecast: core PCE 2.1% YoY, core CPI 2.0% YoY — meaning Goldman still sees the tariff drag fading and the path to 2027 cuts intact even as the headline CPI prints 4%+ this morning. That’s the cleanest bull-counter view sitting on desks pre-print.

The repricing into today’s CPI is downstream of Friday’s +172k May NFP print (vs ~125k consensus). CME FedWatch shows the curve has shifted from pricing easing earlier this year to fully pricing a 25 bp HIKE by December. Polymarket marks “0 cuts in 2026” at 80%, June hold at 99%. Reuters polled 72 of 102 economists who expect the Fed to hold at 3.50–3.75% on June 17. NFP changed the dot-plot conversation Warsh will lead on the 17th from “how soon do we cut” to “do we hold or do we hike before year-end.”

Japan’s May domestic wholesale inflation rose to +6.3% YoY (fastest pace in over three years), per TradingKey’s Asia wrap. Driver per the print: surging energy costs from the Hormuz disruption. JGB 10Y trending higher with global rates; Bund 10Y at 3.05% (highest since May 21). Same energy-passthrough story showing up in CPI prints globally — the May US CPI is the headline version of what JGB holders have been watching for two weeks.

Energy Aspects’ Jun 2 census, still the cleanest physical-flow data point: ~99 million barrels of crude, 37 million barrels of refined product, and 279 kilotonnes of LPG stranded on 247 vessels inside the strait under the dual US/Iran blockade in effect since the March 2 strikes. Pre-war flow was 20–21 million barrels per day; traffic is down ~95%, fewer than 50 laden non-Iranian tankers transited in May. Lloyd’s war-risk insurance still available but expensive. The IEA: largest oil-supply disruption on record, bigger than the 1970s shocks. Trump’s “reopen immediately” line is what oil is pinned to on dip-buys — but Daily Kos now counts the imminent-deal claim as 37+ times since March.

Per Krinsky’s “Seven Warning Signs and Two Positives” note (Seeking Alpha syndication this week): “On Friday the S&P 500 closed more than 7% above its 50-day moving average, yet only 52% of the index’s components finished above their own 50-day moving averages. Over the last 30 years, the S&P 500 has never had less than 55% of its components above the 50-day average when the index itself was at least 7% above that threshold. Typically, when the S&P 500 was this extended above its 50-day moving average, an average of 86% of components traded above their own 50-day moving averages.” His call: “The historic dispersion we saw over the last couple of months has started to unwind, and we think there is more to go before things settle down.”

VIX Central shows the futures curve unchanged from yesterday in contango at the front: M1 16.24 / M2 16.62 / M3 16.78. The spot/M1 inversion, however, has widened sharply: spot VIX 21.44 now sits 5.20 above M1 versus 1.80 yesterday. That’s a textbook event-spike pattern — the futures market is reading the CPI binary as a single-event shock rather than a regime change. If M1 itself jumps after the 8:30 print, the call flips and the entire curve repaces — that’s the trigger to watch first.

Yesterday’s brief flagged the divergence: F&G headline at 39 (FEAR) while the P/C Options sub-component read EXTREME GREED — an unusual split. That divergence collapsed overnight: P/C is now FEAR alongside the headline. The collapse is the cleanest single sentiment-signal change of the week — the options crowd that was still leaning call-heavy through Monday has flipped, and that’s before the 8:30 CPI print. Junk Bond Demand remains EXTREME FEAR — the only sub-component that has been bearish the whole way through.

VXN at 29.78 with a +9.81% one-day move tells you the entire vol-of-vol story is tech-led. AVGO’s soft AI guide, AAPL’s Siri-on-Gemini admission, and Crusoe’s 1.8 GW pause have rolled the AI-vol regime even before CPI. The Market Ear’s “AI Trades’ Fragility Problem” note from Jun 8 read Friday as a vol-skew break, not a single-stock event — today’s VXN print confirms that thesis.

Charlie Bilello’s Week in Charts (Monday June 8 drop): “Welcome to the Mania Phase. The rapid rebound from the March correction lows (+19% over 9 weeks) has been accompanied by a dramatic shift in sentiment. The Tech Sector ETF’s ($XLK) recent 47% rally over 9 weeks was its biggest 9-week advance ever, exceeding the parabolic move higher in late 1999. Semiconductor stocks ($SOXX ETF) have more than doubled on the year, far outpacing the broad market ($SPY +11%). Money continues to pour into the Memory ETF ($DRAM) which became the fastest in history to hit $15 billion in AUM. The 3x Semiconductor ETF ($SOXL) is up 1,550% over the last year. That’s a 16x return. Meme stocks ($MEME ETF) and High Beta names ($SPHB ETF), which were in line with the market at the end of March, are now crushing the major indices. On the flip side, the ratio of the defensive Consumer Staples ETF ($XLP) to the S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) has moved down to its lowest level on record, below where it stood at the dot-com bubble peak in March 2000.”

ZeroHedge’s 5 AM ET tape note (Jun 10): “Dead-Cat-Bounce Dies As Tech Leads More Market Turmoil; Dispersion Rivals Dot-Com Peak.” The frame: “Yesterday’s dead-cat-bounce gave false hope that Friday’s fracas was a blip. On the back of no obvious catalyst today saw tech lead the charge lower in stocks, dragging bitcoin and gold with it.” Three independent voices (Bilello mania, BTIG Krinsky breadth, ZH dispersion) all converged on the same dot-com analog now for the third consecutive briefing — that’s the editor’s confluence call.

From the same Week in Charts: “Analysts have sharply increased their forecasts for 2026, with expected earnings for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbing nearly 50% to record highs. Much of this improvement is being driven by the technology sector, which is projected to account for more than 58% of all earnings growth in the index this year. Even more remarkable: three companies alone (Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix) are expected to generate over half of total earnings growth for the entire emerging markets universe.” US stocks trade at 21x forward earnings; EM at 11x. The AVGO guide and the KOSPI −4.52% Samsung/SK Hynix-led crash this morning are the same story: when those three names cough, EM earnings growth coughs.

Bilello (Jun 8): “While the S&P 500 has now hit 24 all-time highs on the year, Bitcoin is suffering its longest (242 days) and deepest (−53%) drawdown since 2022. After the presidential election in November 2024, Bitcoin went vertical on the narrative that the new administration would be favorable to crypto. All of those gains have now been given back.” BTC briefly traded below $60k earlier this week (first time since 2024) and currently sits $61,458 (−2.26% 1d, −8.46% 7d) per BlockchainReporter. Total crypto market cap ~$2.21T, BTC dominance ~57.6%. Strategy added +1,550 BTC; BitMine added $213M of ETH. The BTC divergence from SPX is the cleanest single “risk-on broke” signal underneath the megacap-led tape.

The Kobeissi Letter on X this week: “The 10 largest US stocks now account for a record 41% of the S&P 500’s market cap. This is 14 percentage points higher than at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak. This means ~41 cents of every Dollar invested in the S&P 500 flows directly into shares of just 10 firms.” Concentration dovetails with Bilello’s mania chart pack and Krinsky’s breadth divergence: the same handful of names that have made the tape are also the handful that have to break it.

ZeroHedge (Jun 9, 15:20 ET): “The story isn’t that Apple is failing. The story is that for the first time in decades, it no longer looks infallible.” Stitches together the WWDC fade (AAPL −3.4% to $291.43) with the Siri-on-Gemini admission — the most consequential Big Tech AI-stack admission of the year. Mag-7 single-name positioning is the rotation chatter at the megacap level into the CPI print.

The event of the week and the binding catalyst for everything else. Headline consensus +0.5% m/m / +4.2% y/y (vs +0.6% / +3.8% April). Core +0.3% m/m / +2.9% y/y. Cleveland Fed nowcast 4.18% / 2.82%, PCE nowcast 3.99% / 3.33%. A 4.2% YoY headline would be the largest since April 2023’s 4.9%. FactSet’s consensus has literally zero spread between high and low estimate — an unusually tight pin, which means any deviation gets paid for. Watch shelter and energy line items; ZeroHedge: even in-line = damage given Friday’s +172k NFP beat.

FOMC blackout window June 6–18 already in effect — no Fed speakers today, tomorrow, or through next week. Next FOMC June 16–17 with the presser on the 17th — Chair Kevin Warsh’s debut meeting and first press conference. SEP + new dot plot release at the same meeting. Senate confirmed Warsh 54–45 on May 13 (most divisive Fed-chair confirmation in history), sworn in May 22 as 17th Fed Chair. Market watching for explicit shift from easing bias toward neutral or even hawkish.

10-Year Note Auction Wednesday at 1:00 PM ET. Prior award yield 4.468%; current 10Y yield ~4.57%. Demand will be highly CPI-dependent: a hot print risks a tail and weak indirect bidding; an in-line print may still struggle given the curve has already repriced for a December HIKE. Tuesday’s 3Y auction showed some improvement per Newsquawk — mildly supportive read-through. Thursday: 30Y bond auction (prior 30Y yield 5.03% on Jun 9).

Oracle reports Q4 FY26 after the close. Consensus EPS $1.96 (+15.3% y/y), revenue $19.10 billion (+~20% y/y); conference call 5:00 PM ET. ORCL has beaten or met earnings estimates in 12 of the past 18 quarters (66.67%); Polymarket gives a 92% chance of beating adjusted EPS. The marquee tech read of the week amid an AI-fear-driven selloff — cloud and AI-infrastructure commentary will set the Thursday tape direction post-CPI.

Chewy reports Q1 FY26 before the bell. Consensus EPS $0.28, revenue $3.37 billion (earnings +22% y/y, top line +8% y/y). Polymarket gives 65% odds of an EPS beat. The K-shape consumer tell into CPI day — less about the tape, more about pet-discretionary signal.

Per CNN’s live coverage and Newsquawk, US launched fresh strikes on Iran overnight in response to Monday’s Apache downing near Hormuz; Trump called it a “proportional response” and “very strong and powerful.” The Israel-Iran ceasefire remains fragile — Israel has halted attacks (Netanyahu stops short of acknowledging full ceasefire); Iran suspended ops but warned it would resume if Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon continue. Iran FM spokesperson Baghaei said Tehran will “reassess” US talks. A draft agreement was reportedly sent to the US and “preliminarily accepted” per Newsquawk (Jun 9). Lebanon remains the sticking point.

Per the SEC 8-K via Nuvalent (Jun 9): “GSK will commence a tender offer to acquire all of Nuvalent’s outstanding shares of Class A and Class B common stock at a purchase price of $124 per share in cash within 10 business days. The aggregate equity value of the transaction is estimated to be $10.6 billion (£8.0 billion), with GSK’s aggregate investment estimated to be $9.4 billion net of cash acquired. The expected purchase price of $124 per share represents a 40% premium to the last closing price.” NUVL surged ~39% in premarket Monday on the announcement. Tender closes by end of Q3.

SpaceX has set a fixed price of $135 per share, plans to sell 555.6 million shares for a $75 billion fundraise, with underwriters holding an option for an additional 83.33 million shares ($11.2B). At $135 the implied valuation is $1.77 trillion (above TSLA at ~$1.6T), making SpaceX the seventh-biggest US company by market cap. Share pricing after market close Thursday June 11; first trading day Friday June 12 on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX. The biggest single supply event of the IPO wave — cross-confirms Lance Roberts’ and DB Reid’s issuance-wave thesis with hard tape numbers.

Per ZeroHedge / Newsquawk US Market Wrap (Jun 9, 23:16 ET): “Tech sold amid renewed AI fears as Trump touts Iran response… Data centre developer Crusoe has paused development on a 1.8GW AI project in Wyoming.” This is the first major AI capex pause of the cycle to surface, and it lands into a tape already absorbing AVGO’s soft Q3 AI guide ($16B vs $17.2B) and the fact that Broadcom did NOT raise its FY26 AI semiconductor sales forecast. Crusoe’s Wyoming pause is material for AI-data-center-adjacent names: CoreWeave (CRWV), Vertiv (VRT), Eaton (ETN), and the broader power-infrastructure complex that has rallied on the assumption that the AI capex stack is a one-way escalator.

Per TipRanks’ pre-market screen this morning: “MU stock is down more than 4%, while NVDA and INTC are down over 2%, and AMD is down over 3.5%” — all on the AVGO guide and what the chip-stack analysts are calling a “deepening memory chip crisis and projected collapse in global smartphone demand.” MU’s 4% pre-market is the heaviest single-name move; the memory leg of the AI trade rolls hardest. The KOSPI −4.52% Samsung/SK Hynix-led close is the same story in Korean tape: the chip-stack thesis is unwinding globally.

Per Benzinga’s analyst color: “Apple WWDC failed to impress investors, leading to a 2% drop in stock price… Apple stock is down 3.4% to $291.43 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $195.07 to $317.40. Step In The Right Direction, But Monetization Questions Remain.” The centerpiece announcement: the new version of Siri will run on Google’s Gemini AI models rather than Apple’s own AI. This is the most consequential Big Tech AI-stack admission of the year — Apple is outsourcing its flagship consumer AI experience to a direct competitor. Material for both single-name and the Mag 7 dispersion framework.

HPE traded $47.47–$50.50 on Tuesday, closing $48.25 — consolidating after the +25% single-day pop on its $6.3 billion AI backlog print (revenue +40% y/y, EPS $0.79 vs $0.53 est) flagged in yesterday’s brief. The fresh news: analyst price-target raises plus the company’s announcement of board appointments and accelerated capital return plans. FY EPS guide raised by $1 to $3.35–$3.45. HPE is the cleanest single-name “AI backlog is real” counter-data point sitting on top of the AVGO/Crusoe…

Tesla announced June 4 the expansion of its unmanned Robotaxi service to cover the entire Austin metropolitan area, including suburbs and major routes (I-35, ABIA airport). On June 8, Barclays highlighted robotaxis as a critical growth driver and the core piece of TSLA’s AI strategy. The subtext into Friday’s SPCX list at a $1.77T valuation: TSLA is now smaller than Musk’s next public vehicle — the SPCX listing reframes the Musk premium and may explain quiet bids in space-adjacent ETFs (ARKX, IPO).

The Kobeissi Letter: “Energy stocks are experiencing a historic run: The S&P 500 Energy Index has reached 20 all-time highs so far in 2026, the most in a single year since 2013. By comparison, the longest streak over the last 36 years was 41 all-time highs in 2007.” Energy is the one sector where the mania framing is bullish-confirming rather than warning — pairs with the Iran-strike re-escalation overnight and a WTI/Brent bid that won’t quit while Hormuz stays closed. The pair trade for the AI-fade desks.

Per BlockchainReporter (Jun 10 08:30 UTC pub time): “Bitcoin is trading near $61,500 on June 10, 2026, down about 17.1% over the past week and pinned in a tight $60,000 to $63,000 range.” Ticker bar: BTC $61,458 (−2.26% 1d, −8.46% 7d); ETH $1,632.27 (−2.59% / −12.96%); SOL $63.87 (−4.12%); XRP $1.11 (−4.79%); BNB $585.58 (−2.89%). Total crypto market cap ~$2.21T, BTC dominance ~57.6%. The headline: “BTC briefly broke below $60,000 for the first time since 2024” in this week’s flush. The risk-on-broke signal under the megacap-led tape.

Per Newsquawk (Jun 9 evening): “Taiwan said to be mulling curbs on AI chip exports to China to align with US.” Material to the chip complex into ORCL tonight — the policy overlay layered on top of AVGO’s soft guide could compress the addressable-market math for TSMC, NVDA, and the data-center stack. Another structural wedge under the “AI capex is one-way” thesis.

FactSet’s John Butters (Jun 9): “The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of May 2026 is 4.2%. If 4.2% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the largest increase in the CPI since April 2023 (4.9%). The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 2.9%.” The high-low spread is essentially zero — an unusually tight pin. Tight pins amplify reaction to deviation.

Kiplinger’s aggregation (Jun 9) of sell-side prints: RBC headline +0.5% MoM / +4.2% YoY, core +0.3% / +2.9%. TD: headline +0.4% / +4.2%, core +0.23% / +2.8%. Bloomberg/FactSet/Goldman composite cites war-induced energy shocks transmitting to warehousing, wholesale, and retail. The full range of desk forecasts compresses around 4.2% headline / 2.8–2.9% core.

Friday’s May NFP printed +172k vs ~125k consensus — the beat that flipped the curve from pricing Fed cuts to fully pricing a 25 bp December hike. Reuters polled 72 of 102 economists who expect the Fed to hold at 3.50–3.75% on June 17 (per Agent 3 sweep). CME FedWatch shows ~96.5–98.3% probability for hold; Polymarket at 99%. The entire CPI reaction therefore routes through the dot plot, not the decision itself.

Initial Jobless Claims Thursday Jun 11 at 8:30 AM ET. Prior week (ending May 30): 225K — highest since the first week of February, +13K w/w, above the 212K consensus. A second weak claims print would partially offset the hot-CPI hawkishness on the Fed path — a labor-market softening signal Warsh will need to weigh.

May PPI Thursday Jun 11 at 8:30 AM ET (concurrent with claims). April PPI surprised hot at +1.4% m/m final demand — more than double consensus. Polymarket trader range for May PPI YoY: 5.0–5.9% range at 47% implied probability, 6.0–6.9% at 41.5%. Hot PPI back-to-back with a 4%+ CPI would entrench the regime-shift narrative.

U-Michigan June prelim consumer sentiment Friday Jun 12 at 10:00 AM ET. May final printed 44.8 — record low, third straight monthly decline, revised down from 48.2 preliminary, driven by Hormuz-related gasoline price spike. Watch the 5–10 year inflation expectations subcomponent — the Fed is acutely sensitive to longer-run expectation un-anchoring, especially with a new chair and a fresh dot plot due five days later.

7:00 AM ET release covering week ending June 6. Prior print: composite −2.5% for week ending May 29, refi −2%, purchase −3%, refi share 38.0%. Prior 30Y mortgage rate 6.57%. Third consecutive weekly decline despite slight rate retreat tied to Hormuz/oil dynamics. Read-through to homebuilder names (LEN reports next week).

Per the St Louis Fed’s blackout-periods page, the FOMC communications blackout for the June meeting runs June 6 through June 18. No Fed speakers today, tomorrow, or through next week. The blackout means the CPI print at 8:30 AM ET lands without any same-day Fed pushback — the entire reaction function plays out in the dot plot on June 17 instead.

The June 17 FOMC presser is Chair Kevin Warsh’s debut. Confirmed by the Senate 54–45 on May 13 (most divisive Fed-chair confirmation in history), sworn in May 22 as the 17th Fed Chair. SEP + new dot plot release at the same meeting. Market watching for: (1) whether the dot plot explicitly removes cuts from the 2026 path; (2) whether Warsh signals a shift from easing bias toward neutral or even hawkish; (3) any change to the long-run neutral rate. Warsh has historically been hawkish on inflation despite Trump’s pressure for cuts.

Per Timiraos’ X note (carried by TradingKey’s aggregator) on the May FOMC minutes: “The Fed’s staff put a decidedly stagflationary forecast together at the May meeting, and that’s important because it could become the foundation for what officials submit in their SEPs next month.” The staff projection is the baseline Warsh and the committee build on top of. Futures pricing ~70% odds of a quarter-point hike in December per Trading Economics — consistent with that stagflationary baseline being adopted.

The Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcasting page updated yesterday (Jun 9). May 2026 nowcast: headline +0.46% m/m / +4.18% y/y; core +0.23% m/m / +2.82% y/y. PCE +0.40% / +3.99%; core PCE +0.27% / +3.33%. June already tracking +0.12% headline / +0.23% core — the energy passthrough is starting to roll off. But the May print is what Warsh will be staring at when he writes his first dot plot.

Polymarket prices “0 cuts in 2026” at 80% implied probability, “1 (25 bps)” cut at 12%, June hold at 99%. CME FedWatch ~96.5–98.3% June hold with virtually zero odds of cut or hike at this meeting. But ZeroHedge notes the futures curve is “fully pricing in a 25 bp hike by the December meeting” — a divergence worth flagging: Polymarket says no cuts; futures say hike. The two are reconcilable (no cuts + a hike = a single hike) but the divergence in the implied path is the trade.