Futures
Pre‑Market Briefing

CAUTIOUS — FRESH FLIP JPMorgan — Trading & Positioning Strategy.

JPM’s Trading & Positioning Strategy desk — the same team that turned “tactically bullish” on April 8 and ran with it through the rally — enters this week with a CAUTIOUS view. The team writes that a defensive stance “makes sense until we see bond vol dissipate and Tech selling stabilize.” This is a meaningful flip and pairs with CNBC’s “JPM traders are getting worried” framing. Joins BofA Hartnett take-profits and Goldman Chief Strategist “getting closer” as the institutional consensus fractures into Wed CPI and the June 17 Warsh FOMC.

TAKE PROFITS — BUBBLE COMPARISON BofA — Subramanian / Hartnett channel.

BofA’s Subramanian note republished via ZeroHedge tells clients to “take profits” as bear-market signposts have risen to 70% — the average reading at prior market peaks. The firm flags dot-com bubble similarities, noting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s −10.26% on Friday was its worst day since March 2020 and the 4th worst session in the index’s history dating to 1994. Hartnett’s framing for tomorrow’s CPI: “in the past 100 years, once CPI crosses 4%, SPX averages −4% next 3M, −7% next 6M.”

CONSTRUCTIVE BUT “GETTING CLOSER” Goldman Sachs — Pasquariello (flow) + Chief US Equity Strategist.

Goldman’s flow desk (Pasquariello) calls this “a remarkably dynamic — if almost intoxicating — trading environment” with the balance of risks still favoring bulls. The Chief US Equity Strategist asks if the rally is “too far, too fast” — answer “not yet” but “getting closer.” The flows team also warns of “dangerously synchronized” crowding and correlations — a fragility risk that could amplify “materially more violent” moves if CPI surprises hot. Counter-narrative to BofA take-profits and JPM defensive.

POSITIONING IMPROVES, RISKS REMAIN Citi — relayed by Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone).

Citi note via Walter Bloomberg: last week’s selloff has reduced crowded long positioning, improving the technical positioning backdrop. The desk cautions risks remain. Coupled with Citi’s SPX year-end target raise to 8,100 last week, the firm is constructive but flagging that institutional crowding is still a watch-item ahead of CPI.

$21B FUTURES SELLING ABSORBED BY ETF INFLOWS JPMorgan positioning desk.

JPMorgan flow note relayed by Walter Bloomberg: US equity futures saw approximately $21 billion in net selling, but ETF inflows offset the flow. The takeaway is asset-allocator demand (via ETFs) absorbed last week’s tactical de-risking from CTAs and macro funds (via futures). Constructive for the medium-term tape even though headline positioning data looks de-grossed.

FED HOLD CONSENSUS — 72/102 ECONOMISTS Reuters poll — June FOMC preview.

Reuters poll surfaced by Walter Bloomberg shows 72 of 102 surveyed economists expect the Fed to hold at 3.50−3.75% on June 17 — Warsh’s debut as Chair. The skew is decisively against any change. CPI Wednesday is the trigger event for re-positioning, not the FOMC itself. Pairs with Polymarket’s 99.3% no-change pricing for the meeting.

HORMUZ OIL-SHOCK SCENARIO JPMorgan commodity desk.

JPM commodity desk via ZeroHedge: despite Brent looking “remarkably calm” near $100/bbl with the dated Brent premium collapsing from a record $36 in early April to $2 (pre-conflict levels), each additional month of Hormuz disruption would lift average prices roughly $5 in 3Q26 and $15 in 4Q26 driven by inventory depletion. Volatility across crude and product markets has dropped sharply — possibly complacently — as physical/futures spreads normalize.

CPI “HOT HEADLINE, MILDER CORE” Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos, WSJ Chief Economics Correspondent).

Timiraos previews tomorrow’s May CPI: the headline will likely run hot due to the war-driven energy spike, but the core is expected to be milder. The frame matters because the Fed’s reaction function is anchored to core. Combined with the Reuters poll consensus for a hold, the asymmetry favors a Fed-friendly read on tomorrow’s number even if the headline catches eyes. Timiraos: “The next step in the policy discussion will be when and how to shift to neutral.”

CONSUMER FRAGILITY Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders, Schwab Chief Investment Strategist).

Sonders flags NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations data showing the mean probability of losing a job has continued to tick up over the past few months — specifically the NYCNJSAJ Job Separation Expectations index at 15.12 in May, back near 2024 highs and well above the 2022-23 lows around 11. She frames it as consumer fragility, a leading indicator that may pressure spending. Companion post: average homeowners insurance premium roughly doubled from ~$1,030 in 2019 to ~$2,200 in 2025 — a structural cost-of-living drag directly relevant to Wednesday’s CPI shelter component.

BUFFETT RATIO 238% — RECORD The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter).

Kobeissi Letter flags US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio has hit a record 238%. This Buffett-favored valuation gauge is now setting new highs. The post pairs with Bilello’s “mania phase” observations and BofA’s 70% bear-market signposts as the day’s confluence of valuation-risk warnings. Kobeissi separately highlights full-time employment falling — weakness “under the surface” that mirrors Sonders’ job-loss probability rise.

“WELCOME TO THE MANIA PHASE” Charlie Bilello — Compound Advisors (Week in Charts, 6/8/26).

Bilello’s marquee weekly: SPX +19% over 9 weeks off March correction lows. Tech Sector ETF $XLK posted a 47% rally over 9 weeks — its biggest 9-week advance ever, exceeding the parabolic 1999 move. 3x Semiconductor ETF $SOXL up 1,550% over the last year (a 16x return). Memory ETF $DRAM became the fastest in history to hit $15B AUM. The defensive Consumer Staples / SPY ratio is at the lowest level on record — below the dot-com peak of March 2000. Fed funds futures now pricing one HIKE by end-2026 vs two cuts expected at start of year. Bitcoin in longest (242-day) and deepest (−53%) drawdown since 2022 even as SPX prints 24 ATHs YTD.

EUROPE/CANADA STAGFLATION RISK Ed Yardeni — Yardeni Research Morning Briefing (today).

Yardeni’s June 9 note centers on stagflation in the Eurozone and the ECB’s bind. ECB is determined to subdue inflation — what it failed to do aggressively enough in 2022 — but the stakes are higher today, complicated by trade and geopolitical pressures. Yardeni’s house view: FOMC holds in June, shifts to a tightening bias, hikes in July — a sharply hawkish off-consensus call. Yesterday’s “Hires-Exceed-Fires Economy” framing confirms his standing call that May payroll strength (+172k) debunks the “low-hire, low-fire” thesis.

MAG 7 vs SPX 493 DIVERGENCE Torsten Slok — Apollo Daily Spark.

Slok’s recent Daily Spark: revenue per employee is rising for the Mag 7 and falling for small-cap companies; profit margins are rising for the Mag 7 but flat for the S&P 493. The conclusion is that Fed hikes and higher all-in yields continue to bite for companies with weaker credit fundamentals, and there are NOT yet signs that AI is boosting revenues or profit margins outside the Mag 7. Companion piece flags Strait of Hormuz dynamics as a working-capital problem for US corporates — supply-chain bottlenecks rising, delivery times slowing, inventories insufficient.

DEAD CAT BOUNCE THESIS ZeroHedge / Market Internals Recap.

ZH market recap argues this morning’s equity rebound is a dead-cat bounce — “markets don’t bottom on Fridays” — and historically, sell-offs of similar character see Friday’s low re-tested before a durable bottom. The setup pairs with BofA take-profits and Bilello’s mania-phase to form a coherent technical bear case: the structural problem is the velocity of the March-to-now rebound; the structural fix is a re-test of the prior low.

VX TERM STRUCTURE VIXCentral — term-structure read (live).

VIXCentral shows front-month VX futures (M1) at 16.24 with M2 at 16.62 — a healthy contango structure. Spot VIX at 18.04 is above the front-month future, indicating spot has reset higher in cash but term structure is normalizing. The vol market is reading last week’s spike as a tactical, not structural, event. VVIX unchanged at 92.40 confirms vol-of-vol is steady. Implication for the CPI binary: hedging is being priced as event-driven, not regime-change.

“FISHING WHERE THE FISH ARE” JC Parets — All Star Charts Supercycle Report.

JC Parets published “We’re Fishing Where the Fish Are” on June 8 as part of his Supercycle Report. The full note is members-only, but the title and All Star Charts’ positioning framework imply he’s doubling down on the leaders that survived the March correction. Consistent with his prior bullish stance on the tech leadership group and the counterweight to Bilello/BofA’s mania-phase warnings.

FED FUNDS REPRICED HAWKISH Polymarket & CME FedWatch.

Polymarket has Fed June 17 at 99.3% no-change. The 2026 path has shifted: probability of at least one rate hike now 55%, up from 38% pre-NFP. Probability of any cut in 2026 has collapsed to 22%. CME FedWatch shows 48bp of hikes priced by year-end vs 30bp Friday morning. October at 50% conditional is the leading hike month. Warsh’s SEP/dot-plot on June 17 is the focal repricing event.

DEAL-FRAMEWORK TRACKING The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter).

Kobeissi’s reporting through the weekend (cross-cited via ZH/Newsquawk) tracks expected terms of a US-Iran peace framework: 60-day ceasefire extension, Hormuz reopened for the 60-day period, Iran free to sell oil during it, US lifting blockade on Iranian ports and unfreezing some Iranian assets. Iran reserves the right to withdraw if Israel keeps striking Lebanon. The post Monday drew 346K views in nine hours and is the working framework most desks are now pricing.

QUALITY OVER NARROW TAPE Neuberger Berman — Joseph Amato CIO Weekly Perspectives.

Amato’s CIO Weekly: while Middle East tensions are driving near-term volatility, the focus is likely temporary as attention soon returns to major July and August policy decisions — read: the July FOMC where Yardeni and others now see hike risk. Quality bias remains the determinant of 2026’s extreme dispersion of performance in a higher-rates environment, reinforced by Slok’s Mag 7 vs SPX 493 margin split. Amato’s standing “Tale of Two Indices” framework directly addresses today’s narrow tape: handful of mega-cap tech making the S&P 500 look better and higher than underlying reality.

RAISED 2026 SPX EPS TO $326 Raymond James — Larry Adam Weekly Investment Strategy.

Adam’s recent note: after a standout 1Q earnings season, RJ raised 2026 S&P 500 EPS estimate to $326 from $300. With inflation running hotter than expected and surging energy prices pushing headline CPI to 3.8% in April (the highest since 2023) and with five years above the Fed’s 2% target, “policymakers’ tolerance for another overshoot is wearing thin.” Markets are now pricing in a rate hike this year. RJ keeps the 10Y UST year-end range at 4.25–4.50% with fixed-income investors urged to focus on income not capital gains. Sector tilt: consumer discretionary and healthcare — most overlooked in 2025 — poised to rebound, consumer disc boosted by AI exposure, tax cuts, stronger spending.

HOME ALONE — WARSH, CHINA AI, PREDICTION MARKETS David Cembalest — JPM Eye on the Market.

Cembalest’s most recent EOTM canvasses: implications of incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh; investing in China’s AI ecosystem despite stock-market discounting; and the growing role of prediction markets in price discovery. The standing 2026 Outlook (“Smothering Heights”) frames four medium-term risks: (1) US power generation constraints; (2) China scaling its moat alone; (3) Taiwan; (4) the “metaverse moment” risk to hyperscaler profits after $1.3T cumulative capex+R&D. Directly relevant to today’s circular-AI-financing story (Apollo+Blackstone $35B Anthropic SPV, OpenAI IPO).

TRADE TRACKER — LONG MRVL + NOW, SOLD CVX Stephanie Link — Hightower (CNBC Trade Tracker).

Hightower CIS Stephanie Link’s most recent disclosed positioning: bought Marvell (now +9% on the S&P 500 inclusion announcement effective June 22) and added to ServiceNow; sold Chevron — a notable energy-de-risking tilt that runs against the Mideast-premium narrative but is consistent with her quality/AI-infrastructure bias. Hightower Investment Solutions AUM $8.2bn as of May 8, 2026. Link’s CNBC contributor role across Halftime/Closing Bell/Squawk Box makes her the most likely real-time portfolio voice into Wed CPI.

$150 OIL ONLY ON WAR ESCALATION Doomberg — Substack.

Doomberg’s June commentary: oil-market resilience post-Iran strike has been a mystery; any analyst claiming they predicted it is lying. Potential supply disruption is estimated at ~8 million bpd, significantly lower than the most catastrophic published forecasts. Iran’s de facto closure of Hormuz since February has forced a permanent rethink of global energy markets; Iranian strikes damaged Ras Laffan, sidelining ~17% of Qatar LNG capacity (12.8 Mt/yr) for 3-5 years. Doomberg predicts deliberate policy moves — export controls, Jones Act suspensions, two-tier pricing — to insulate North American consumers while the rest of the world competes for scarcer molecules. War escalation remains the only path to $150 oil.

STAY POSITIONED IN AI EARNINGS Jeremy Schwartz — WisdomTree CIO / Behind the Markets.

Schwartz + Prof Siegel’s recent Behind the Markets podcast: surprisingly strong May jobs report (+172k), implications for upcoming Fed policy, and continued strength in equity markets despite geopolitical tensions and questions around productivity gains from AI. Schwartz’s view: investors remain focused on strong AI-trade earnings growth but are aware of Mideast risks and oil-price impact. CNBC hit: “AI winning out over Middle East concerns as key market focus.” Reinforces that the AI/Mag 7 trade — directly tied to today’s NVDA/SK Hynix announce, INTC foundry rumor, and SpaceX IPO — remains the primary risk-asset driver despite oil/geopolitics.

MORNING BID Reuters — Mike Dolan, “Buy the chip.”

Dolan flags Monday’s modest US rebound was concentrated in tech megacaps at the vanguard of the AI boom while 60% of the S&P 500 still ended in the red — the narrowest tape since Korea’s “Black Monday” forced a sentiment reset. Marvell jumped 9% Monday on its S&P 500 inclusion (effective June 22). SpaceX is set to price its $75B IPO this week targeting a $1.75T valuation — top-10 most valuable US-listed firms despite only 7% of shares freely tradeable at launch on June 12. Asia rebounded sharply overnight: Nikkei futures +2%+, Kospi futures +5%+ as Middle East de-escalation and US chip rally provide tailwind.

WEEKLY EVENT STACK Newsquawk — Tuesday + Week Calendar.

Today’s data slate: US ADP Weekly Change, Atlanta Fed GDP, May Existing Home Sales, April Wholesale Inventories. Speakers: ECB President Lagarde. Tuesday corporate flow: US adds BABA, BIDU and others to the SEC 1260H delisting watch list; FDX raises dividend; GSK to acquire NUVL for $10.6B; AZN oral GLP-1 advances to Phase III; MRK & GILD discontinue Phase III lung study; OpenAI files for IPO. NFIB May Optimism printed 95.3 vs 96.0 expected — small-business confidence soft pre-CPI. Midweek stack: US CPI (Wed) + Oracle earnings (Wed AMC) + BoC decision (Wed); PPI + Jobless Claims + Adobe earnings + ECB Thursday. Heaviest catalyst week of June.

CPI WEEK FRAMING — 4% THRESHOLD ZeroHedge — Key Events This Week (DB / GS forecasts + Hartnett).

ZH’s week-ahead summarizes DB economists: May headline CPI Wed expected +0.55% m/m, core +0.22% m/m; on y/y basis HEADLINE PROJECTED TO HIT ~4.3% (from 3.8%), core to ~2.9%. Goldman forecasts +4.17% headline / +2.79% core. Hartnett: “In the past 100 years once CPI crosses 4%, average SPX −4% next 3M, −7% next 6M.” Friday’s payrolls +172k vs 88k expected (3M avg now +188k, 2-yr high); diffusion index 53.8 (highest since Mar 2024). Warsh’s first FOMC as Chair is one week later — the case for HIKING looks notably stronger than for a cut.

SUPPLY-SIDE TSUNAMI ZeroHedge / Lance Roberts — Equity Supply Surge.

Roberts argues 2026’s IPO + lockup-expiry wave is the largest equity supply shock on record. Combined IPO proceeds plus value of shares freed from expiring lockups in 2026 exceed $700 billion — towering over every prior year back to 1998. Goldman projects US IPO proceeds could reach a record $160 billion in 2026; SpaceX targeting >$1.5T valuation prices as soon as June 12, with OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, Stripe ($134B) behind it. Shiller CAPE around 42, 28% above long-term average, within points of the 2000 peak. Prior euphoric supply surges (2000, 2021) preceded 49% / 25% S&P drawdowns. Counterpoint: Fed easing not tightening (debatable), Databricks $4.8B run-rate +55% YoY, forced index passive demand if SpaceX fast-tracks into the NDX.

MONDAY US WRAP ZeroHedge / Newsquawk — Tech rebounds, oil pares.

Newsquawk’s US wrap of Monday (republished via ZH): Israel and Iran traded weekend strikes then signaled end-of-strikes after Trump pressure; US told Israel to hold off “a few days” for a deal; Israel to continue operations in Lebanon; NY Fed SCE showed inflation expectations little changed; OPEC+ agreed to a modest output quota increase of 188k bpd for July; NVDA/SK Hynix partnership announced; GOOG and NVDA reportedly looking at INTC as a secondary manufacturing partner; Apple unveiled Siri AI at WWDC keynote.

CEASEFIRE FRAGILITY ZeroHedge / Rabobank — Bas van Geffen, “Ceased Ceasefire?”

Rabobank’s van Geffen captured the weekend dynamic: US-Iran at odds over frozen Iranian assets (Trump: “If they behave, we start talking”); Treasury Secretary Bessent weighing using Iranian frozen assets to pay for Gulf reconstruction. US Central Command downed two Iranian drones near Hormuz; Iran fired five tokenistic missiles overnight at Israel (first direct hit since ceasefire); Israel struck targets in western/central Iran including a PETROCHEMICAL FACILITY. Houthis say they will close the Red Sea to Israel-linked maritime trade. Brent futures up almost 5% to $97.50/bbl weekend high; Asian equities lower (Nikkei −4.3% intraday weekend Asia); Eur futures −1.5% pre-open; 10y Bund +3bp. Today’s tape unwinds that — but the underlying fragility is unchanged.

PRE-CPI RATES REPRICING FinancialJuice / InvestingLive — Morning Juice US Session Prep.

Traders are now pricing in around 48 BPS of Fed rate hikes by year-end, up from roughly 30 BPS on Friday before the stronger-than-expected payrolls report — a sharp repricing into Wednesday CPI. The US Dollar retreated from a 2-month high to around 99.85 in early European trading on Tuesday as Middle East hostilities ebbed. Friday’s S&P −2.6% ended a 9-week win streak; per CME FedWatch, odds of at least one Fed hike this year were 72% early Monday.

SA WALL STREET BREAKFAST Seeking Alpha — Tuesday edition.

SA WSB flags a global rate-hike wave from emerging markets in response to inflation pressures, alongside the US-centric CPI countdown. Frames Wednesday’s May CPI as the pivotal datapoint that determines whether the Fed stays on hold or formally adopts a tightening bias after Friday’s NFP shock. Sequencing: Tue NFIB (95.3 actual), ADP weekly change, Atlanta Fed GDPNow; Wed CPI + Oracle earnings + BoC; Thu PPI + jobless claims + Adobe + ECB rate decision.

CIRCULAR AI FINANCING ZeroHedge — Apollo + Blackstone $35B Anthropic SPV.

Apollo and Blackstone closed a $35B private-credit SPV for Anthropic — the biggest private credit SPV deal ever. The structure: Broadcom backstops the SPV; Morgan Stanley arranges and lends to participants; the proceeds let Anthropic buy Google TPU chips made by Broadcom. Combined with OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing and SpaceX’s $1.75T pending IPO, this is the “vendor-financing” loop many strategists flag as a bubble red flag (echoes of 1999). Material for AVGO, MSFT, INTC, and the broader AI capex narrative.

SINGLE-DAY RECORD — HPE +25% Benzinga — Premarket Movers.

HPE ripped 25% intraday Monday (its biggest single-day move ever) before paring on a $6.3B AI backlog beat. Intel jumped on reports Google placed a 3 million TPU foundry order — keeping the AI-bubble narrative alive after last week’s SOX rout. MSTR −8% as Schiff calls Saylor’s STRC bitcoin engine in a “death spiral”; GameStop posts highest quarterly net income ever; Bloom Energy higher as Trump amends Section 232 tariffs on metals; Intuit downgraded to Sell at Goldman.

PASQUARIELLO + CHIEF STRATEGIST ZeroHedge — Goldman flow desk + Chief US Equity Strategist.

Two parallel Goldman views into CPI week. (1) Pasquariello (flows): “this is a remarkably dynamic — if almost intoxicating — trading environment,” with the balance of risks still favoring bulls. (2) Goldman Chief US Equity Strategist evaluating exuberance asks if it’s “too far, too fast” — answer “not yet” but “getting closer.” Counter-narrative to BofA Hartnett take-profits and JPM TPS defensive. Goldman flows team also warns of “dangerously synchronized” crowding and correlations — a fragility risk that could amplify “materially more violent” moves on a hot CPI.

JPM TPS FLIPS CAUTIOUS ZeroHedge — JPMorgan Trading & Positioning Strategy.

After turning “tactically bullish” April 8 (and nailing it through the rally), JPMorgan’s TPS desk enters this week with a CAUTIOUS VIEW. The team writes that a defensive stance makes sense until bond volatility dissipates and tech selling stabilizes. Reinforces the buyer-vs-profit-taker rift: BofA Hartnett take-profits, Goldman Pasquariello bulls, JPM TPS defensive. Quote: “We think a Defensive stance makes sense until we see bond vol dissipate and Tech selling stabilize.”

HORMUZ COST CURVE ZeroHedge — JPMorgan commodity desk.

JPM commodity desk: despite Brent futures looking “remarkably calm” near $100/bbl with the dated Brent premium collapsing from a record $36 in early April to $2 (pre-conflict levels), each additional month of Hormuz disruption would lift average prices by roughly $5 in 3Q26 and $15 in 4Q26 driven by inventory depletion. Volatility across crude and products has dropped sharply — possibly complacently — as physical/futures spreads normalize.

WEEK IN CHARTS — “MANIA PHASE” Charlie Bilello — Compound Advisors (6/8/26).

Bilello’s marquee post calls out the mania-phase setup explicitly. SPX +19% over 9 weeks off March correction lows; XLK +47% over 9 weeks (biggest ever, exceeding parabolic 1999); SOXX >2x YTD vs SPY +11%; $DRAM fastest ETF to $15B AUM; SOXL +1,550% YoY (16x); XLP/SPY ratio at the lowest level on record — BELOW the dot-com peak; Buffett ratio 238% record; CAPE ~42. Bitcoin in longest (242-day) and deepest (−53%) drawdown since 2022 even as SPX prints 24 ATHs YTD. Gold/Silver: both turned negative YTD after Ag +64% / Au +25% in January. Fed funds market now PRICING IN ONE HIKE BY END-2026 vs two cuts expected at start of year.

MIDYEAR WEBINAR — 2 PM ET Charlie Bilello — YCharts Midyear Market Outlook (today).

Bilello hosts a 6/9 at 2 PM ET YCharts Midyear Market Outlook. Headline themes for the live session: (1) why equity markets have remained so resilient, (2) is this time different, (3) where the Fed is headed next, (4) the charts and signals that matter most right now. Timing puts him squarely in front of Wed’s CPI as the framing event.

FED PIVOT TRACKER Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) — WSJ Fed watcher.

Timiraos reporting flags Fed officials have largely sidelined rate-cut discussions and have begun seriously weighing the possibility of rate HIKES. Quoted framing: “The next step in the policy discussion will be when and how to shift to neutral — where the likelihood of a rate hike or cut becomes roughly equal — and the answer will likely depend almost entirely on future inflation data.” CME FedWatch shows 99% prob of hold at June meeting, ~84% hold in July, but the December meeting now pricing a 54.1% probability of a HIKE. Warsh’s debut FOMC June 17 is the focal event.

CHALLENGER LAYOFFS SPIKE Newsquawk — Live Headline Feed.

US Challenger Job Cuts May printed 97.006k vs prior 83.387k — a worsening layoff-announcement trend that pre-figures Friday’s data slate. Separately, Lebanese president quoted saying ceasefire implementation could begin within 24 hours of final approval; Pakistani source on a memorandum-of-understanding effort this week. USTs incrementally firmer; JGBs lagging on hawkish BoJ reports; crude softening on US-Iran deal mediation.

DEAD CAT BOUNCE ZeroHedge (Tyler Durden) — Monday wrap.

ZH’s Monday wrap argues Monday’s rebound is a dead-cat bounce after Friday’s bidless rout, with “markets don’t bottom on Fridays” as the framing. Despite weekend escalation in the Mideast, morning jawboning brought oil back from the edge and (with a dip in inflation expectations) supported a bounce in Friday’s worst names — big tech and bitcoin outperformed while bonds chopped unchanged. The question: is this a dead-cat bounce or a buyable dip given higher-for-longer rates vs structural AI infrastructure momentum and a US economy that’s absorbed a 3-month-plus energy crisis with limited damage.

BABA / BIDU 1260H LIST + OpenAI IPO Newsquawk — Daily US Equity Opening News.

Newsquawk’s Tuesday morning Daily US Equity Opening News tape: US adding Alibaba (BABA), Baidu (BIDU) and others to the SEC 1260H delisting watch list — a recurring China-tech overhang. FedEx (FDX) raises dividend; GSK acquires Nuvalent (NUVL) for $10.6B; AstraZeneca (AZN) oral GLP-1 advances to Phase III; Merck and Gilead discontinue a Phase III lung study; OpenAI files for IPO confidentially. Single-name idiosyncratic M&A overlay against the broader pre-CPI macro tape.

NFIB May Optimism 95.3 / Uncertainty 91 spike.

The May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index released this morning fell 0.6 to 95.3, missing the 96.0 consensus and remaining below the 52-year average of 98.0 for a third straight month. The Uncertainty Index spiked 3 points to 91 — well above its historical average of 68 — implying small firms are pulling back on hiring and capex commitments into the CPI/FOMC week. The Employment Index was essentially flat at 100.3. The print confirms the dovish-on-growth, hawkish-on-inflation tension Zandi flagged Monday and adds a soft signal underneath the May NFP beat.

NY Fed SCE — consumer fragility widening underneath.

The May NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: 1-year inflation expectations eased 0.1pp to 3.5% (3-yr and 5-yr unchanged at 3.1% and 3.0%), but household financial outlook deteriorated across the board. Layoff expectations rose, job-finding expectations fell, and the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months climbed 1.2pp to 12.6% — the highest reading since April 2020. Median 1-yr nominal spending growth expectations dropped 0.4pp to 5.0%. Home price expectations rose 0.5pp to 3.5%, the highest since July 2022 — hinting shelter disinflation is stalling just as CPI prints tomorrow.

Conference Board ETI — 5 of 8 components negative.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index slipped to 107.01 in May from an upwardly revised 107.88 in April, with five of eight components contributing negatively (firms unable to fill, job openings, initial claims, real manufacturing/trade sales, industrial production). Despite May NFP +172k, the forward-looking ETI now reads as a clearer growth-cooling signal, supporting the cuts-by-year-end camp into Warsh’s June 17 debut. ETI is +2.1 pts vs six months ago — a deceleration, not a break.

Cleveland Fed nowcast — May headline ~4.05% y/y.

The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting model currently flags near-term pressure with a May/June CPI nowcast near 4.05% headline y/y. April CPI already at 3.8% y/y (highest since May 2023); tomorrow’s May print expected to test whether the Iran/oil shock is feeding through to core. Core measures still tracking near 2.8%. Hartnett’s “CPI print that could pop the bubble” framing quantified: ~25bps of headline surprise above consensus would put the model in play.

Moody’s Zandi — growth masking deeper risks, neutral-rate constraint.

Mark Zandi’s commentary: the consumer inflation story is becoming harder to dismiss as transitory, while the expansion is fragile and the federal funds rate is hovering above his estimate of the neutral rate. Growth needs to strengthen before labor and wage weakness feeds back, but persistent inflation may prevent the Fed from cutting if growth slows further. He flags gasoline at $4.174 (AAA, June 7) as still squeezing consumers despite coming down from $4.558 a month ago. The classic stagflation-lite trap that gives bears the upper hand into tomorrow’s CPI print.

Fannie Mae — mortgage rates above 6% through 2026.

Fannie Mae’s June outlook keeps the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage above 6% through 2026 and into 2027, with home prices expected to rise just 1.7% this year. Housing starts projected near 1.3 million annualized for 2026, broadly flat to 2025 levels. Forecast assumes a gradual rebound in sales activity as rates ease, but the path is contingent on disinflation that the May NY Fed SCE just signaled is stalling in the housing component. Anchors the rates-desk view that any cuts in H2 are likely back-end-loaded.

St Louis Fed Flash Report — labor “steady-state.”

St Louis Fed’s June 6 Flash Report reads the May jobs data as steady-state: unemployment held at 4.3% (precisely 4.296%, down from 4.337% in April), with payrolls +172k. The framing leans against the “overheating” panic that pushed rate-hike odds 50% → 57% on CME after Friday’s release — the St Louis economists call the labor market “broadly stable over the past year” and “resilient.” A useful counterweight to Polymarket’s 55% hike-by-year-end pricing.

FOMC BLACKOUT — Day 6 of 11; Warsh debut June 17.

Today is Day 6 of the FOMC blackout window (June 6–18) ahead of the June 16–17 meeting, Kevin Warsh’s first as the 17th Chair after his May 22 swearing-in. No fresh speeches were posted to the Federal Reserve Board speeches calendar in the past 18 hours, consistent with policy limiting FOMC participants and staff from speaking publicly during blackout. Watching points: SEP dot-plot (Warsh’s first public signal of his reaction function) and the press conference after the June 17 statement at 2:30 PM ET. Polymarket has 99.3% probability of no change at the June meeting; focus is entirely on the dots and SEP.

FEDS Notes — Software & Accessories made unprecedented contribution to core PCE.

A recent FEDS Note by Barbarino, Diercks, and Miran documents that the “Computer Software and Accessories” subcategory made the largest contribution to core PCE in any five-month window in the BEA’s series, from November 2025 through March 2026. The contribution was tied to AI-related capex pass-through into consumer-facing software pricing. The note frames the question of whether this represents a one-time level shift or a durable inflation source — a question that matters directly for the Warsh dot plot at the June 17 meeting and connects to the Apollo/Blackstone Anthropic SPV story.

FEDS Notes — Mexico in U.S. Supply Chains: Lessons from 2018-19 Tariffs.

A June 2026 FEDS Note by Aristizabal-Ramirez, Avalos, Rosenbaum, and Van Leemput revisits the 2018-19 tariff episode to draw forward lessons on supply chain pass-through. The kind of staff research that bypasses the blackout speech ban and gives a window into how Board economists are thinking about tariff/inflation interactions just before Warsh’s debut.

NY Fed Liberty Street — K-shape consumption.

NY Fed Liberty Street’s recurring K-shape consumption analysis updated last week: top-quintile real consumption +2.8% YoY, bottom-quintile −0.4%. Corroborates the debt-miss-probability spike in the SCE release. The split has widened for three quarters and underwrites the contradiction between strong AI-sector earnings beats and the weak-tape signals in discretionary retail.