Pre‑Market
Briefing

JPMorgan — Jamie Dimon / Q1 2026 Earnings Beat & Warn

JPMorgan Chase reported Q1 2026 net income of $16.5 billion, earnings per share of $5.94 (beating consensus of $5.46), and record total markets revenue of $11.6 billion. Revenue hit $50.5 billion, up 10% year-over-year. Investment banking fees rose 28%. Fixed income revenue climbed 21% to $7.1 billion; equities rose 17% to $4.5 billion. The bank lowered its full-year 2026 net interest income guidance from $104.5 billion to $103 billion, triggering a stock decline of nearly 3% in early trading despite the headline beat. CEO Jamie Dimon warned of an “increasingly complex set of risks” including geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, trade uncertainty, large global fiscal deficits, and elevated asset prices. He noted potential risks in the private credit market. CFO Jeremy Barnum confirmed the quarter’s strength was driven by higher markets revenue, higher asset management and investment banking fees, and balance sheet growth — partially offset by the impact of lower rates. The NII guidance trim was the market’s primary focus and set the narrative for the bank reporting season.

Goldman Sachs — David Solomon / Q1 2026 Earnings Second-Best Ever

Goldman Sachs reported net revenues of $17.23 billion and net earnings of $5.63 billion for Q1 2026, the second-highest quarterly results in the firm’s history. Earnings per share came in at $17.55, up 25% year-over-year, beating the prior year’s $14.12. The equities desk was the standout performer, posting record revenue of $5.33 billion — up 27% — driven by prime brokerage and cash equities strength. Advisory revenues surged 89% year-over-year as Goldman maintained its number-one global M&A position. Debt underwriting rose 8%. FICC was relatively softer, with rates and mortgages notably lower, though offset by gains in currencies and commodities. CFO Denis Coleman highlighted record Global Banking & Markets revenue of $12.7 billion generating ROE above 22%. CEO David Solomon acknowledged the “volatile” quarter but stated Goldman is “well-positioned to serve clients as the bull market matures.” He also noted that IPO activity slowed in March due to geopolitical uncertainty but expected deal pipelines to strengthen. Separately, Goldman’s prime brokerage data (via Nell Mackenzie/Reuters) showed hedge funds sold energy stocks last week at the fastest pace since September 2024 as oil fell on ceasefire optimism.

Morgan Stanley — Mike Wilson Featured Call: Lows Are In

Morgan Stanley CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson made the clearest directional call of the week in a CNBC Squawk Box appearance on Tuesday April 14: “Lows are in for the year for the S&P 500.” Wilson argued that the market is telling a fundamentally different story than the headlines suggest — that investors should position for a recovery because the equity market has already discounted the geopolitical and oil disruptions. His Monday April 13 Thoughts on the Market podcast elaborated on the thesis, noting that credit spreads, large-cap tech valuations, and market structure signals are all consistent with a bottoming process. Wilson emphasized that looking at what the market is actually doing, not what it feels like, supports the recovery posture. Morgan Stanley Q1 2026 earnings are due Wednesday pre-bell. Consensus: $3.01 per share on revenue of $19.7 billion.

Bank of America — Michael Hartnett / Global Fund Manager Survey Contrarian Signal

The April BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, released Tuesday and compiled from 193 fund managers overseeing $563 billion in assets (surveyed April 2–9), delivered the most bearish composite reading since June 2025. The bank’s broadest sentiment measure dropped sharply to 3.7 from 5.6 in March. Global growth expectations registered their steepest single-month decline since March 2022, with a net 36% of investors now expecting weaker global economy compared to a net positive 7% the prior month. Inflation expectations hit their highest level since May 2021. Global equity allocation dropped to a net 13% overweight from 37% in February. Cash levels sit at 4.3%. Despite the bearish read, CIS Michael Hartnett noted the data is historically a contrarian positive: he cited prior lows in October 2023 and April 2025 that coincided with key market turning points. His specific condition: “All contrarian positive for risk assets so long as ceasefire sends oil price below $84/bbl; but not a close-eyes-and-buy.” About 58% of respondents still expect the Fed to cut rates over the next 12 months. Notably, 34% see oil at $80–$90 per barrel by year-end 2026 — a bullish scenario for equities if realized.

Citi — US Equities Upgraded to Overweight New Call

Citi upgraded US equities to Overweight from Neutral on Monday April 14, becoming the second major institution to turn bullish on US stocks that day alongside BlackRock. The upgrade cited resilient corporate earnings, attractive post-selloff valuations, and technology’s dominant contribution — roughly 50% — of 2026 global EPS growth. Citi strategists noted the US market “has derated and now trades at a premium to developed markets, excluding the U.S., that’s close to historical averages.” Within the upgrade, Citi recommends overweighting Materials, Health Care, and Technology, while downgrading Emerging Markets to Neutral on energy shock vulnerability and currency headwinds. Citi also upgraded global Materials to Overweight and downgraded Communication Services to Underweight. Separately, the bank downgraded six software stocks earlier this week citing AI concerns. The S&P 500 has rebounded nearly 9% from its late March seven-month low ahead of today’s open.

Jonathan Krinsky, CMT — BTIG Featured Call Technical Bottom

BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky appeared on CNBC Closing Bell on Monday April 13, delivering a key technical call: “Bitcoin rebound suggests software stocks may have bottomed.” Krinsky’s thesis rests on the historically strong correlation between Bitcoin’s recovery pattern and the capitulation low in IGV (the software ETF). He flagged that both BTC and software names have shown the kind of breadth improvement and momentum reversal that has historically marked interim cycle lows. Bitcoin’s surge past $74,000 pre-market Wednesday — up 5.5% — adds real-time weight to his call. Krinsky had previously noted, in his early April analysis, that March closed with a greater than 6% S&P 500 decline — the worst monthly performance since September 2022 — yet April setups have historically been bullish, with an 80% positive rate over the past 20 years. His VIX divergence signal (VIX failed to make a new high while S&P briefly dipped below March lows) flagged waning downside momentum — a setup that appears to be resolving to the upside.

Reuters Morning Bid — Mike Dolan Morning Read

Reuters Editor-at-Large Mike Dolan’s Morning Bid for Tuesday April 14 was headlined “War-weary markets filter out noise” — capturing the dominant market psychology of the moment. Dolan observed that the half-hearted stock selloff early Monday, which later unwound, showed that the impact of each twist and turn in the Iran conflict is dissipating, with investors increasingly anchoring to the view that significant de-escalation and a freeing-up of oil supplies is coming. He noted that the S&P 500 has returned to — just barely — its pre-war level, even with the US naval blockade in effect. Oil’s retreat back below $100 per barrel ahead of the session was the catalyst for Monday’s equity rally. Asian markets closed green overnight, European shares rose, and Wall Street futures ticked up into Tuesday’s open. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook at 9 AM ET was the macro anchor of Tuesday’s session.

VIX — CBOE Volatility Index Regime Shift

The VIX closed Tuesday April 14 at 18.36, down 3.97% on the session. Pre-market Wednesday the index is trading at approximately 18.59. The month-to-date VIX average for April stands at around 19.12, according to TradingEconomics data. The index is firmly in declining-volatility territory — down sharply from the 28+ levels seen when the US blockade of Iranian ports was announced. Per SpotGamma’s April dynamics analysis, positive gamma conditions are reasserting as the market grinds higher, with dealer positioning shifting from volatility-amplifying to volatility-damping. The CNN Fear & Greed Index has moved from the Extreme Fear zone (where it sat at 22.6 on April 7) into the Neutral zone, according to Benzinga’s April 15 morning coverage. This is the first Neutral reading since the war began on February 28.

BofA Flow Data — April FMS Contrarian Signal

The same BofA Global Fund Manager Survey that registered the most bearish composite score since June 2025 also contains the flow data for April. Global equity allocation dropped to a net 13% overweight from 37% in February. Equity outflows hit $29 billion in the latest week per BofA data. Bond funds were the only major asset class with inflows at $2.7 billion. US equities specifically saw $23.6 billion in outflows — the largest in 13 weeks. Emerging market equities remain the most favored regional position at 41% overweight (down from 53% in March). Japan saw one of the most notable reversals, falling to an 11% underweight from a 14% overweight in March. The BofA bull/bear indicator overall sits at 3.7 — comfortably in the range that has historically signaled contrarian equity entry, though Hartnett’s caveat that “positioning is not yet at uber-bear levels” deserves respect. About 70% of FMS respondents do not expect a recession — suggesting further sentiment deterioration is possible before a definitive floor.

IMF World Economic Outlook — Spring 2026 Growth Cut

The International Monetary Fund released its April 2026 World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, delivering the most comprehensive accounting to date of the Iran war’s damage to global growth. Global growth for 2026 was cut to 3.1%, down from the pre-conflict 3.4% recorded in 2025. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated the war “has halted the momentum” that was expected to carry into 2026, with the Strait of Hormuz closure and damage to energy facilities raising the prospect of a major energy crisis if a durable solution is not found soon. In an adverse scenario, global growth could be constrained to 2.5%; in a severe scenario, 2.0% — a threshold historically associated with global contraction. Emerging market growth was cut to 3.9% from the January forecast of 4.2%. Cumulative growth over 2026–2027 was revised down 0.5 percentage points for low-income net energy-importing economies and 0.2 percentage points for energy-importing advanced economies. The IMF also released its Global Financial Stability Report alongside the WEO, titled “Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks.” The Spring Meetings continue through Saturday April 18 in Washington. The Fiscal Monitor briefing with Rodrigo Valdés is live at 9:00 AM ET today.

IEA — Oil Market Report Demand Shock

The International Energy Agency, in its report released Tuesday, projected the Iran war oil shock will drive a contraction in oil demand of 1.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026 — the steepest quarterly demand drop since the COVID-19 pandemic. For the full year 2026, the IEA now projects demand to contract by 80,000 barrels per day, compared to a prior forecast of demand growth of 640,000 barrels per day — a swing of more than 700,000 bpd. The agency attributed the shock primarily to the effective removal of 11 million barrels per day of supply through the near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as of end-March. ANZ bank, in a note released Tuesday, expects Brent crude to trade above $90 per barrel through 2026 before ending the year at $88 per barrel. A Reuters poll of eight analysts found expectations for a 750,000 bpd supply deficit on average for full-year 2026 — a dramatic reversal from September 2025 forecasts of a 1.63 million bpd surplus.

Moody’s Credit Outlook — Weekly Note Credit View

Moody’s current weekly Credit Outlook carries three headline reads directly relevant to today’s session: the Middle East ceasefire will ease the energy shock if sustained, but recovery will be gradual given infrastructure damage; large US banks’ Q1 trading and investment banking revenue is likely stronger than consensus — confirmed by JPM and GS results; and Moody’s Analytics continues to track the “Vicious Cycle Index” (VCI), which flagged near-even recession odds through Q1 2026 based on labor market participation and hiring dynamics. Chief Economist Mark Zandi noted earlier this week that the VCI remained above its threshold in January, February, and March, though the lack of widespread layoffs continues to prevent the index from triggering a definitive recession signal. Moody’s Analytics is hosting a Data Buffet Training Webinar today April 15.

Bloomberg Markets Live & Newsquawk Overnight Intelligence

Bloomberg Markets Live flagged two key signals this morning for April 15: “AI Theme Beginning to Dominate Again” in a 3-minute MLIV briefing, and “Xi Says China to Play Constructive Role in Middle East,” providing the first significant indication of Chinese diplomatic engagement in the conflict resolution process. The Newsquawk US Market Wrap for April 14 (published late Tuesday) documented the session’s macro architecture: 10-year Treasury yields fell 3.7 basis points to 4.256% on de-escalation optimism; WTI settled at $88.19 per barrel, down $4.76; and Iran was reportedly considering pausing its Hormuz shipping fees to avoid derailing talks, with separate sources noting US and Iran had shown readiness for further negotiations. President Trump told the New York Post that renewed talks in Pakistan could happen within two days. Reuters noted that the IEA highlighted restoring Hormuz flows remains key to any supply recovery, with full normalization potentially taking months beyond any ceasefire agreement.

Governor Michael Barr — April 14 Speech New Speech

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr gave opening remarks and moderated a fireside chat at the “Strengthening America’s Economy through Rural Investment” working forum on Tuesday April 14. Barr stated it is “too early to know the path for prices as events in the Middle East unfold” — the most explicit acknowledgment yet from a sitting Fed governor that the war has created genuine monetary policy uncertainty beyond the standard “data-dependent” posture. He characterized tariffs and Iran war impacts as short-term pressures on rural communities with mixed longer-term effects from AI. Boston Fed President Susan Collins, participating in the same forum, noted that businesses in her district are using AI to replace labor — citing a lumber mill that deployed AI to sort planks and reduce labor costs. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also participated. The forum surfaced a consistent theme across Fed leadership: the AI productivity dividend and the energy inflation headwind are operating simultaneously, making the policy signal unusually difficult to read. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book — a survey of economic conditions across all twelve districts — is due today at 4:15 PM ET and will be the first granular data point on war impacts in the real economy.

NY Fed Liberty Street Economics — April 14 Publication New Research

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a Liberty Street Economics blog post Tuesday morning on the usage of generative AI in the workplace, based on supplemental questions from the November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations. The post explores who is using AI at work, their assessments of its productivity impact, how workers expect AI will affect the unemployment rate, and the monetary value employees place on AI training access. The research is directly relevant to the Fed’s deliberations on the labor market: if AI adoption is genuinely raising productivity without displacing employment at scale, the neutral rate may be higher than models suggest and the case for cuts is structurally weaker. Separately, the Fed’s H.15 Statistical Release confirmed Tuesday’s closing rates: 10-year Treasury yield at 4.257%, 2-year at 3.751%, effective federal funds rate at 3.64%.

Hema Parmar — Bloomberg / Hedge Fund Flows Desk Intel

Bloomberg’s Hema Parmar published April 13 that D1 Capital Partners’ equities book tumbled 6% in March, making Dan Sundheim’s firm one of the worst-performing long-only stock pickers for the month. All six of D1’s largest year-end stock bets lost money, led by industrials company Flowserve Corp. and home-building-products maker James Hardie Industries, which dropped 17% and 22% respectively during the month. D1 remains up 2.7% for the year despite March’s damage. The result adds to the emerging portrait of March as a bifurcated month for hedge funds: macro and commodity funds, including Andurand and the Pharo Macro fund, gained sharply on energy volatility, while fundamental long-equity funds were punished across the board. Earlier Parmar/Nishant Kumar reporting confirmed Tiger Global’s main fund tumbled 7.3%, Maverick Capital dropped 5%, Viking Global lost 4.1%, and Coatue declined 4.8% in March. Citadel’s Global Fixed Income Fund fell 8.2% — the worst among Citadel’s major strategies.

Nick Timiraos — Wall Street Journal / Housing & Fed New Article

WSJ Chief Economics Correspondent Nick Timiraos published Monday April 14 on the sluggish spring housing market. The article noted that the spring season — historically the strongest period for real estate activity — is failing to materialize as elevated mortgage rates driven by the Iran war have suppressed buyer demand. The National Association of Realtors cut its 2026 existing home sales growth forecast from a prior 14% to just 4%, a dramatic revision attributable almost entirely to higher-than-expected mortgage rates. The Fed’s H.15 data confirmed the 30-year fixed mortgage rate’s impact: mortgage rates rose alongside the 10-year yield during the war’s most intense periods. Timiraos, in a LinkedIn post tied to the ceasefire on April 8, also wrote that the Iran war has already permanently altered the Fed’s rate outlook regardless of peace outcomes — because “what’s left is an inflation problem that hadn’t been fully resolved before the first missile flew.”

ZeroHedge — Morning Intelligence Market Signal

ZeroHedge’s overnight feed carried two signals worth flagging. First: “Oil is still screaming risk… but markets aren’t listening anymore. Something changed” — capturing the market’s psychological shift from treating every oil move as a geopolitical binary to filtering out noise and repricing around earnings. Second: the Newsquawk US Market Wrap, republished by ZeroHedge, confirmed the April 14 session mechanics in detail: yields fell, oil fell, equities rose, and the market narrative was dominated by JPMorgan’s “beat and retreat” on NII guidance. The platform continues to serve as the fastest aggregator of cross-asset trading desk commentary on the war narrative.