Pre‑Market
Briefing

JPMorgan Chase — Q1 2026 Results EPS $5.94 Beat — Record Markets $11.6B — IB Fees +28%

JPMorgan delivered a sweeping Q1 beat that set the constructive tone for the entire earnings season. Net income came in at $16.5 billion with EPS of $5.94 — comfortably above consensus. The standout number is markets revenue of $11.6 billion, a record for the firm’s markets division, driven by elevated volatility and client hedging demand throughout the Iran war period. Investment banking fees surged 28% year-over-year as the M&A backlog continued to clear. Jamie Dimon, in his accompanying commentary, described the quarter as “strong across all businesses” while explicitly flagging concerns about capital rule frameworks and their impact on bank activity in stress environments. The broader institutional message: the largest US bank is in excellent financial health heading into what is shaping up to be a genuinely uncertain second quarter.

Goldman Sachs — Q1 2026 Results Revenues $17.23B (2nd Highest Ever) — Equities Record $5.33B — Advisory +89%FICC Miss —10% — Stock −3%

Goldman’s Q1 produced the second-highest quarterly revenue figure in the firm’s history at $17.23 billion, with EPS of $17.55 beating the consensus estimate. Equities revenue hit a firm record at $5.33 billion, and advisory revenue surged 89% year-over-year as deal activity accelerated through the conflict period. The miss that overshadowed the beat: FICC revenue declined 10% and came in approximately $910 million below expectations, reflecting the dislocation in fixed income markets during the Iran war. Goldman stock fell roughly 3% despite the headline beat, as the FICC shortfall raised questions about the sustainability of the trading mix. The firm separately noted that copper faces downside risk if Hormuz disruption persists, and Goldman raised its outlook on AI infrastructure demand, flagging global data center electricity demand rising 220% by 2030 with the US absorbing 60% of that increase.

Wells Fargo — Q1 2026 Results EPS $1.60 Beat — Revenue $21.4B +6% YoY — Broad-Based Growth

Wells Fargo reported Q1 net income of $5.25 billion with EPS of $1.60 beating the $1.58 consensus estimate. Revenue of $21.4 billion rose 6% year-over-year. CEO Charlie Scharf described broad-based growth across all business segments. The results provide further confirmation that the consumer and commercial banking backdrop remains intact despite the war-driven inflation and economic uncertainty. Wells Fargo Investment Institute, in its concurrent daily commentary, maintained its above-average economic growth base case for the year and held a neutral position on TIPS.

BlackRock — Q1 2026 Results AUM $13.9T — Revenue Beat — Net Income +46% YoY — Raised US Equities Outlook

BlackRock delivered a strong Q1 with revenue of $6.7 billion beating the $6.43 billion estimate, EPS of $12.53 versus the $11.65 estimate, and net income up 46% year-over-year. The firm manages $13.9 trillion in assets under management. Most consequentially from a market signal standpoint: BlackRock explicitly raised its outlook on US equities, citing contained macro impact from the Iran war and a solid earnings growth backdrop. Given BlackRock’s position as the world’s largest asset manager, this is not a casual call — it represents the firm’s house view entering the second quarter with a naval blockade active and the S&P having fully recovered 2026 losses.

Morgan Stanley / Michael Wilson Resilient Earnings Shield S&P — “Final Phase” of Correction — Bullish 12-Month

Morgan Stanley’s chief market strategist maintained a bullish 12-month outlook on US equities, framing the current environment as the “final phase” of the war-driven correction. His core thesis: resilient earnings — confirmed by Monday’s bank results — provide a structural shield to the S&P 500 even as the Iran conflict continues. Wilson argued that stocks are likely near the end of their correction phase and that the fundamental earnings picture has not been meaningfully impaired despite the oil shock. The six-consecutive-quarter streak of double-digit S&P 500 earnings growth, which began in 2024, appears intact based on the Q1 bank reports.

BofA / Michael Hartnett Commodities to Replace Stocks as Biggest “Anything But Bonds” Winners for Rest of 2020s

Hartnett’s most recent weekly flow note delivered a structurally significant macro call: commodities will replace equities as the dominant “anything but bonds” trade for the remainder of the decade. This marks an evolution from his earlier frameworks — rather than simply a wartime energy call, Hartnett is making a secular multi-year asset allocation argument. The Iran war supply disruption, the IEA’s historic revision, and the structural underinvestment in commodity production create the backdrop for this rotation. Separately, HSBC’s strategist noted the market printed its first proper buy signal since Liberation Day — a constructive near-term technical development.

J&J / Healthcare / Insurance J&J Raises 2026 Outlook on Oncology Beat — Insurance Stocks Jump on Medicare Advantage Rate Boost

Outside the bank complex, Johnson & Johnson raised its full-year 2026 outlook following a Q1 beat driven by its oncology franchise. The result provides broad S&P earnings support beyond the financial sector. Insurance stocks moved sharply higher on a Medicare Advantage rate boost announcement, with Humana and UnitedHealth leading gains. These two developments reinforce the view that the earnings growth narrative for 2026 remains broadly intact across sectors despite the war disruption. Q1 S&P 500 EPS growth is expected to reach approximately 13-14% year-over-year — the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

Tom Lee — Fundstrat S&P 6,886 Signals Market Expects Favorable Resolution — “Fog of War” Not a Sell Signal

Tom Lee interpreted the S&P 500’s rally to 6,886 — fully erasing 2026 war losses — as a signal that the market is collectively pricing a favorable diplomatic resolution to the Iran conflict. He characterized the current environment as a “fog of war” phase rather than a sell-the-news moment, arguing that markets historically perform well through the middle stage of conflicts once the initial shock has been absorbed. Lee’s call is specifically relevant today: the Islamabad collapse and the naval blockade represent what he would classify as fog-of-war noise rather than fundamental deterioration, as long as the second-round talk pathway remains open.

Kobeissi Letter AI Power Boom: Global Data Center Electricity Demand +220% by 2030 — US Absorbs 60%

Independent of the Iran conflict narrative, the Kobeissi Letter surfaced a Goldman Sachs dataset showing global data center electricity demand is set to rise 220% by 2030, with the United States absorbing approximately 60% of that increase. The AI infrastructure buildout is not slowing — it is accelerating even as energy costs surge from the war. This creates a structural tension: the same conflict that is squeezing energy supply is also dramatically increasing the demand signal for power infrastructure investment. The implication for markets is a continued bull case for AI-linked equities, data center REITs, and power infrastructure even in a higher-energy-cost environment.

Moody’s Analytics / Mark Zandi Vicious Cycle Index Triggered Three Months Running — 48.6% Recession Probability — Close to Even Odds

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi published a significant recession warning today: the firm’s Vicious Cycle Index has now flashed red through January, February, and March 2026 — three consecutive months above the threshold that has historically preceded every US recession since 1945 without a false alarm. Moody’s raised its 12-month US recession probability to 48.6%, higher than EY-Parthenon at 40% and Goldman Sachs at 30%. Zandi’s caveat: “It could still prove wrong. These are highly unusual times and we have yet to see consumers pull back significantly or businesses begin widespread layoffs.” The VCI incorporates unemployment, labor force participation, and wartime economic dynamics. The oil shock’s full economic impact has not yet flowed through to consumer spending or business hiring. The Moody’s Credit Outlook added: a sustained ceasefire would ease the energy shock, but recovery will be gradual rather than immediate.

Jonathan Krinsky — BTIG Chief Market Technician Bitcoin Rebound May Signal Software Stocks Have Bottomed — IGV Inflection WatchFeatured Call

In his most recent appearance on CNBC’s Closing Bell, Jonathan Krinsky offered a technically significant observation: the Bitcoin rebound from its recent lows appears to be signaling a potential bottom in software stocks. Krinsky flagged the IGV software ETF as a key sector to watch for a technical inflection, noting that the BTC-software correlation has been a useful leading indicator at turning points in this cycle. This is an important call in the context of the broader AI infrastructure narrative: if software has bottomed technically, the next leg of the tech rally has a foundation. Krinsky’s framework entering Tuesday: the S&P at 6,886 has reclaimed significant technical territory, but he will want to see the rally confirmed rather than chasing into blockade news.

Morning Intelligence Synthesis Full Desk View — April 14 Pre-Open

The dominant morning narrative from across the institutional media and newsletter complex: equities rose and oil declined as Trump signaled willingness to resume talks, with the S&P 500 on track to erase 2026 losses. Morning briefing services noted that the market printed its first proper institutional buy signal since early April per one major bank desk, while separately flagging that the insurance sector is getting a fresh tailwind from Medicare Advantage rate improvements. The Goldman copper warning — downside risk if Hormuz disruption persists — is the commodity-side cautionary note counterbalancing the equity optimism. The morning consensus entering Tuesday open: bank earnings provide fundamental support, the second-round talk pathway keeps diplomatic optionality alive, and the blockade hardening is the tail risk that keeps position sizing disciplined.

IEA April Oil Market Report Largest Supply Disruption in IEA History — 10.1mb/d Fall in March — Physical Crude Near $150

The International Energy Agency released its April Oil Market Report this morning with findings that represent the most severe supply disruption assessment in the agency’s five-decade history. Global oil supply plummeted 10.1 million barrels per day in March to 97 million barrels per day. OPEC+ production fell 9.4 million barrels per day month-over-month to 42.4 million. Physical crude oil surged to record levels near $150 per barrel at the height of the disruption, creating a severe disconnect between physical and futures pricing. Middle East and feedstock-constrained Asian refineries cut runs by approximately 6 million barrels per day in April. Middle distillate prices in Singapore reached all-time highs above $290 per barrel.

The IEA baseline scenario assumes gradual resumption of Hormuz flows by mid-year and estimates oil exports through the Strait will take roughly two months to stabilize once the waterway reopens. Global oil demand is now projected to contract 80,000 barrels per day on average in 2026, versus prior expectations of growth of 730,000 barrels per day. If disruptions extend beyond May, demand destruction would be substantially worse. The IEA noted it is ready to coordinate further strategic petroleum reserve releases if needed, following the record 400 million barrel release coordinated in March. Critically, the report was published while the US blockade was going into effect — a dynamic the agency described as “the latest development in the fast-evolving situation.”

IMF World Economic Outlook — April 2026 War Has Materially Darkened Global Growth — Wartime Debt Burden +14pp — Resilience Tested

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas presented the April World Economic Outlook at 9:00 AM ET with a materially negative revision to global growth and a sharp upward revision to inflation risks, directly attributable to the US-Iran conflict and the Hormuz supply disruption. The IMF’s analytical work on wartime defense booms finds that fiscal deficits worsen by roughly 2.6 percentage points of GDP, public debt increases by approximately 7 percentage points within three years in typical conflict scenarios, and public debt can jump by as much as 14 percentage points in full wartime mobilizations. The global economy’s resilience — built on AI-driven investment, accommodative financial conditions, and surging technology spending — is now being stress-tested by the most severe energy shock since the 1970s. The IMF Spring Meetings are running this week in Washington alongside the Semafor World Economy conference.

IMF Global Financial Stability Report — April 2026 Financial Stability Risks Elevated — Oil Shock and Private Credit Stress

IMF Financial Counsellor Tobias Adrian presented the Global Financial Stability Report at 10:15 AM ET, identifying elevated financial stability risks across two primary channels: the oil price shock feeding into broader inflation and growth disruption, and the ongoing stress in private credit markets. The GFSR explicitly linked the private credit market vulnerability — visible in the redemption wave that swept Blue Owl, Ares, Apollo, and others in Q1 — to the broader geopolitical shock. This marks the first time the IMF has flagged private credit stress as a systemic stability concern in a formal GFSR publication. Blue Owl moved to partially reopen primary credit markets Monday, raising $400 million in the first investment-grade private credit bond deal in over a month, pricing 2028 notes at 6.5% yield.

Federal Reserve — Austan Goolsbee & Stephen Miran Goolsbee at Semafor 12:10 PM ET — Miran: No Wage-Price Spiral Expected — Iran Shock Hasn’t Hit Long-Run Expectations

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 12:10 PM ET at the Semafor World Economy 2026 conference on a panel covering the economy and monetary policy. His most recent public remarks at the Detroit Economic Club on April 7 described his outlook as “cautious, nervous” and specifically cited oil prices as a potential stagflationary risk for the Fed. With the naval blockade now active and the IEA reporting the largest supply disruption in history, Goolsbee’s comments today will be closely monitored for any signal on how the blockade changes the Fed’s framework.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran spoke Monday, April 13, offering a more measured read: the Iran war energy shock has produced “thus far no evidence that inflation expectations are higher” at longer durations, and with the labor market on a gradual cooling trajectory spanning roughly three years, a wage-price spiral is “very unlikely.” Miran expects inflation to return to the Fed’s 2% target within approximately one year. He is scheduled for an additional discussion Tuesday evening at 6:20 PM ET at a symposium on the financial system in Washington. The next FOMC meeting is April 28–29. Governor Miran’s constructive framing on inflation expectations is the key counterweight to the Moody’s 48.6% recession probability and the IEA’s historic disruption call.

BLS — March 2026 Producer Price Index Released 8:30 AM ET Today — Energy Shock Expected to Drive Elevated Print

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March 2026 Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM ET this morning. The February PPI came in at +3.4% year-over-year, +0.7% month-over-month, with energy goods up 2.3% and diesel fuel a major driver. March is expected to show a sharp acceleration in energy-driven producer prices, mirroring the pattern seen in the March CPI report released April 10: headline CPI +3.3% year-over-year, driven by a record 21.2% monthly surge in gasoline prices — the largest monthly gasoline increase since the index was first published in 1967. Core CPI remained benign at +2.6% year-over-year. The market consensus: the Fed will look through the energy-driven headline noise as long as core inflation remains contained, consistent with Governor Miran’s commentary Monday. The PPI print feeds directly into the PCE deflator calculation and provides the final piece of Q1 inflation data before the April 28–29 FOMC.