Pre‑Market
Briefing

Goldman Sachs Underestimating War RiskNew: 3 Investment Ideas

Goldman delivered two significant signals in the past 24 hours. First, the bank warned publicly that the stock market’s solid two-day rebound may signal investors are not appreciating the risks tied to the Iran war. With Brent now at $108.60 following the South Pars strike, that warning looks prescient this morning. Second, Goldman published its revised portfolio framework: the bank is overweight healthcare and materials, has abandoned exposure to middle-income consumers and non-residential construction, and sees the window for cyclical trades based on first-half 2026 economic acceleration “quickly closing.”

On the three new investment ideas: Goldman recommends metals (overweight maintained), secular growth stocks over cyclical growth stocks, and sees the Iran conflict as a catalyst for solar and cybersecurity stocks. The solar thesis is counterintuitive — rising energy prices push AI data center developers toward renewable energy demand. Goldman’s bear-case S&P 500 scenario: a 19% decline if crude reaches $150. Its baseline remains constructive, but the bear case is the closest it has been to materializing since the war began.

Morgan Stanley 6-Month Bull Case IntactFOMC: One Cut Call

Mike Wilson’s note titled “The Reasons for the Bull Market to Resume” remains the most constructive major bank call on equities. His central argument: the spike in oil prices is the result of a logistical logjam in the Strait of Hormuz rather than a structural shortage of supply — and “necessity is the mother of ingenuity and will likely be solved.” Today’s South Pars escalation puts that thesis under its most serious stress test yet. Wilson’s 7,800 S&P 500 year-end target remains in place.

Morgan Stanley’s FOMC preview is specific: the dot plot will continue to show one rate cut this year, consistent with the Fed’s past practice of looking through oil-induced inflation spikes. MS retains a forecast of two 25-basis-point cuts, while acknowledging September is now more likely than June for the first move. The bank also recommends increasing exposure to defense, security, aerospace, and industrial resilience themes — noting that government spending can drive multiyear demand in those sectors independent of the oil shock.

JPMorgan — Natasha Kaneva Kharg Island + South Pars

JPMorgan’s head of global commodity strategy Natasha Kaneva is the single most cited analyst on oil desks this morning. Her framework from last Friday — warning that U.S. strikes on Kharg Island marked a major escalation with potential for “severe retaliation by Iran in the Strait or against regional energy infrastructure” — has now materialized in the form of the South Pars attack and Iran’s explicit threats against Saudi, UAE, and Qatari energy assets. JPMorgan and Goldman both expect the Fed to revise its 2026 inflation forecast to ~3.5% in today’s Summary of Economic Projections.

Bank of America Energy Overweight

BofA recommended buying energy stocks on Monday, citing the ongoing oil shock. The bank also warned that markets may be underpricing the economic growth damage from a prolonged war. BofA economist Antonio Gabriel: “While a quick resolution to the conflict is certainly a possibility, we view the conflict extending into Q2 as an equally likely outcome, and a more protracted war cannot be ruled out.” BofA maintains overweights in Financials, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Energy. Downgraded Communication Services to slightly underweight.

Wells Fargo FOMC Worst Nightmare

Jeff Currie — Carlyle (Former Goldman Commodities Chief) New Energy Paradigm

Morningstar / Vanguard / Natixis / Ameriprise FOMC Consensus

The most widely cited FOMC preview framework across independent research: the Fed will hold, acknowledge geopolitical risks with language similar to its post-Ukraine March 2022 statement, and deliver a dot plot showing one remaining cut in 2026. The independent research consensus on the stagflation framing is clear. Natixis Chief U.S. Economist Christopher Hodge: “The war should provoke a stagflationary impulse, with consumer demand dampened while headline inflation rises. This leaves the FOMC with little choice but to remain on hold until it is evident whether growth or inflation is damaged more significantly.” Vanguard’s Josh Hirt: “It will take time for the growth and inflation effects to become evident.” Ameriprise’s Anthony Saglimbene: Powell will communicate a “very flexible” approach, retaining a bias toward supporting the labor market.

Westpac Banking — Robert Rennie $95–$110 New Range

Given Iran’s threats this morning against Saudi and UAE energy infrastructure, Rennie’s $105–$130 extended range scenario has moved from tail risk to live scenario within a single session.

Javier Blas — Bloomberg Commodities Analyst Both Sides Targeting Production

Torsten Slok — Apollo Global Double Bind

Apollo’s chief economist: 10 of 12 FOMC voting members voted at the January meeting that rates should not go down. “If anything, the risk to inflation after the last meeting has actually gone more to the upside.” On labor: the February payrolls miss of -92,000 is still more attributable to reduced immigration supply than weaker demand — meaning the labor market weakness does not give the Fed permission to ease. The stagflation double bind remains the dominant macro constraint.

Amazon CEO Adam Jassy — AWS AI Demand Signal $600B AWS Forecast

In an internal meeting reported by Reuters on Tuesday, Jassy projected that AI will help AWS double its previously forecasted sales estimates — rising to $600 billion over the next ten years from a prior estimate of $300 billion. This follows Jensen Huang’s $1 trillion GTC signal. The AI demand narrative is running a parallel track to the geopolitical crisis. Both are simultaneously true: AI infrastructure demand has never been stronger, and the macroeconomic environment for delivering on that demand has never been more challenged.