In This Issue
Special: Thanksgiving 2011 Holiday Trading Schedule & Hours
1. Monthly Soft Commodities Outlook
2. Jim Wyckoff's Hot Market
3. Economic Calendar
Please take note of special trading hours for this coming week's Thanksgiving 2011 holiday. You can find the changes on our Thanksgiving 2011 Holiday Trading Schedule & Hours page. Good trading!
Produced by J. Ganes Consulting, LLC for the ICE Exchange. This PDF file provides trade ideas, trade outlook, possible spreads, news about the different crops, politics and much more for Cocoa, Sugar, Coffee, orange Juice and Cotton. See the following excerpt.
Flowering of the Brazilian coffee crop has occurred without a hitch despite a slightly delayed start to the rainy season. The flowering of the crop seems to be sufficient to get the 2012-13 crop off to a reasonable beginning stage of its development increasing the probability that a record crop will be produced. Based on the USDA statistics, which do differ from the Brazilian forecasting agency, CONAB, a crop of around 60 million bags would be a reasonable expectation given the current high prices and excellent care to the trees. Despite this outlook for plentiful future supply, current prices for Brazilian coffee instead reflect a scarcity. Brazilian differentials have firmed considerably and are now even at premiums to other growths of Mild Arabica coffee. The crop that was harvested this season was also a record for the down year, but strong local consumption as well as high international demand has absorbed much of this supply and roasters are finding it difficult to secure coffee from the world's largest producer but have found little trouble finding other growths at discounted prices.
You can access the full PDF file by filing out this quick form below.
CCI Trending Lower as Crude Oil Pushes Higher
The Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) is a basket of 17 major raw commodity futures prices rolled into one composite index price. It's an excellent gauge of the overall trend in the raw commodity market sector. See on the daily bar chart that the CCI has recently turned lower and also negated an uptrend line. A fresh downtrend line is now in place on the daily CCI chart. What is surprising is that the CCI is in a near-term downtrend while at the same time sector leader crude oil is in a solid price uptrend and this week pushed above what was major psychological resistance at $100.00 a barrel. Something's gotta give here. Either crude oil prices are near a peak, or the rest of the raw commodity sector is poised to follow crude higher and start their own rallies. My bias is that crude oil prices are near a peak. I'm still longer-term bullish the raw commodity sector, but do not see major bull market runs being uncorked in the commodity market sector before the new year begins.
Jim has an excellent daily newsletter where he reviews different markets, alerts you for potential trades and much more. Included is his great bi-weekly newsletter with charts and a little longer term outlook. We recommend checking out his website, educational CDROM, and services at Jim Wyckoff
Disclaimer:
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results. This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current futures market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
| 11/18 Fri |
7:30 AM CST - Dairy Products Prices 9:00 AM CST - Leading Indicators(Oct) 2:00 PM CST - Cattle On Feed 2:00 PM CST - Milk Production | LT: Dec Crude Lt(NYM) Nov DJIA Options(CME) Nov Nikkei Options(CME) Nov S&P 500 Options(CME) Nov E-Mini S&P 500 Options(CME) Nov NASDAQ Options(CME) Nov E-Mini NASDAQ Options(CME) Nov Russell Options(CME) Nov Value Line Options(CME) Dec Orange Juice Options(ICE |
| 11/21 Mon |
9:00 AM CST - Existing Home Sales(Oct) | FN: Dec Coffee(ICE) |
| 11/22 Tue |
7:30 AM CST - GDP-Second Estimate(Q3) 7:30 AM CST - GDP Deflator-Second Estimate(Q3) 1:00 PM CST - FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM CST - Cold Storage | FN: Dec Crude Lt(NYM) LT: Dec Gold Options(CMX) Dec Silver Options(CMX) |
| 11/23 Wed |
6:00 AM CST - MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 7:00 AM CST - Census Crush 7:00 AM CST - Cotton Consumption 7:30 AM CST - Durable Orders(Oct) 7:30 AM CST - PCE Prices-Core(Oct) 7:30 AM CST - Personal Income & Spending(Oct) 7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly 8:55 AM CST - Michigan Sentiment-Final(Nov) 9:30 AM CST - API & DOE Energy Stats 12:00 PM CST - EIA Gas Storage | FN: Dec Cotton(CME) LT: Dec Copper Options(CBT) Dec KC Wheat Options(CBT) Dec Natural Gas Options(NYM) |
| 11/24 Thu |
THANKSGIVING DAY | |
| 11/25 Fri |
7:30 AM CST - Dairy Products Prices 7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales | LT: Dec 2,5,10 Year Notes Options(CBT) Dec Bonds Options(CBT) Dec Chi/MN Wheat Options(CBT) Dec Corn Options(CBT) Dec Oats Options(CBT) Dec Rough Rice Options(CBT) Dec Soybeans Options(CBT) Dec Soyoil Options(CBT) Dec Soymeal Options(CBT) Dec Barley Options(CBT) Dec RBOB Gasoline Options(NYM) Dec Heating Oil Options(NYM) |
| 11/28 Mon |
9:00 AM CST - New Home Sales(Oct) | LT: Nov Copper(CMX) Nov Gold(CMX) Nov Silver(CMX) Nov Platinum(CMX) Nov Palladium(CMX) Dec Natural Gas(NYM) |
| 11/28 Tue |
8:00 AM CST - Case-Shiller 20-City Index(Sep) 9:00 AM CST - Consumer Confidence(Nov) 9:00 AM CST - FHFA Housing Price Index(Sep) | FN: Dec Natural Gas(NYM) |
| 11/29 Wed |
6:00 AM CST - MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 6:30 AM CST - Challenger Job Cuts(Nov) 7:15 AM CST - ADP Employment Change(Nov) 7:30 AM CST - Productivity-Rev(Q3) 7:30 AM CST - Unit Labor Costs(Q3) 8:45 AM CST - Chicago PMI(Nov) 9:00 AM CST - Pending Home Sales(Sep) 9:30 AM CST - API & DOE Energy Stats 1:00 PM CST - Fed's Beige Book(Nov) | FN: Dec 2,3,5,10 Year Notes(CBT) Dec Bonds(CBT) Dec Copper,Gold,Silver(CMX) Dec Platinum,Palladium(CMX) Dec Oats(CBT) Dec Soymeal,Soyoil(CBT) Dec Wheat(CBT) Dec Barley(CBT) LT: Nov Fed Funds(CME) Dec Heating Oil(NYM) Dec RBOB Gasoline(NYM) Nov Fed Funds Options(CME) Dec Lumber Options(CME) |
| 12/01 Thu |
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CST - Construction Spending(Oct) 9:00 AM CST - ISM Index(Nov) 9:30 AM CST - EIA Gas Storage 2:00 PM CST - Auto & Truck Sales 3:30 PM CST - Money Supply | LT: Nov Milk(CME) Nov Milk Options(CME) |
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!