In This Issue

Trading Psychology 101
Hot Market Report - Corn
Economic Calendar

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January, 19th 2011 - Issue #567

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Trading Psychology 101

by: Vadym Graifer of RealityTrader.com

In today's issue are the first two articles: Trading Psychology 101 and Trading Psychology - Stage 1. Blissful Unawareness.

Vadym is the author of Techniques of Tape Reading (McGraw Hill 2003), How to Scalp Any Market (2005) and Master Profit Plan (2005). Vadym is a frequent featured speaker at International Trader's Expos and Financial Forum Conferences.

He is the founder of RealityTrader.com, a hands-on training company, working with a global community of individuals to achieve high levels of trading success.

Vad is a professional trader and an international private trading mentor responsible for turning around the trading careers of thousands of trader. He has also published articles and interviews in industry magazines, corporate product newsletters and trading forums.

Trading Psychology 101

This is one of those never-ending debates among newer traders - role of psychology in trading. Some claim it's all there is to trading. Some argue it's nothing but red herring, and one just needs to follow his signals (system, indicators, whatever one fancies) and no psychobabble will ever be needed. Yet some say psychology is important and assign some weight to it - "80% of trading is psychology"... or 95%... Not sure how they measure it, I personally like 76.364%.

Two things must be said about this.

First, we all are different. Some simply cannot change their behavior and, no matter what system they are given, they just can't follow it. Their personality takes over pushing them into all kinds of trading No-No's. They can't enter when entry signal comes in; they don't apply stops when the trade fails; they take profits too soon or never.

Then there are others who don't seem to be influenced by their inner workings; they just see the light and follow it. Obviously, the role of psychology will be drastically different for those two types.

Second, and most significant for most of us: We go through different stages in our learning curve. As far as trading psychology is concerned, I can clearly see three stages common for the most traders.

First stage is total ignoring or under appreciation of this aspect of trading. By ignorance, by arrogance or for whatever else reason, a trader doesn't give it much thoughts while focusing on technical side of trading.

Second stage is acknowledgment. Running into troubles with their inner gear, reading books or listening to others, traders become aware of the ways their personality interferes with their trading. They have met the enemy.

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Hot Market Report – Corn

by Jim Wyckoff

Corn Bulls in Command; But "February Break" Looms

Click the image to enlarge
March 11 Gold Continuation Chart - NEUTRAL CORRECTION

March corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday hit a fresh contract and 2.5-year high of $6.66 1/4 a bushel. Prices then backed off a bit on some profit-taking pressure from recent strong gains. Corn futures prices are in a 6.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and have appreciated by over $3.00 a bushel during the present price uptrend. The contract low in March corn futures was scored on June 29,2010, at $3.56 3/4. The corn market bulls have strong upside near-term technical momentum and their are no early technical clues to suggest a major market top is close at hand. The one thing the corn market bulls and the grain market bulls are concerned about is the seasonal "February Break" phenomenon, whereby grain futures prices do tend to show a significant price pullback around the February timeframe. In recent years, the February Break has paid an earlier visit to the grain markets--during January. The next upside price objective for the corn market bulls is to push March futures prices above psychological resistance at $7.00 a bushel. The corn market bears would gain some fresh downside near-term technical momentum by producing multiple closes back below what is now psychological support at $6.00 a bushel. Near-term technical resistance for March corn futures is located at $6.60 and then at Wednesday's contract high of $6.66 1/4. Near-term chart support is located at $6.50 and then at this week's low of $6.45 1/2.

Jim has an excellent daily newsletter where he reviews different markets, alerts you for potential trades and much more. Included is his great bi-weekly newsletter with charts and a little longer term outlook. We recommend checking out his website, educational CDROM, and services at Jim Wyckoff

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Economic Calendar

Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.

Date Reports Expiration & Notice Dates
01/19
Wed
6:00 AM CST - MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
7:30 AM CST - Building Permits & Housing Starts(Dec)
9:30 AM CST - API & DOE Energy Stats
2:00 PM CST - Milk Production
LT: Feb Platinum Options(CMX)
Feb Palladium Options(CMX)
01/20
Thu
7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly
9:00 AM CST - Existing Home Sales(Dec)
9:00 AM CST - Leading Indicators(Dec)
9:00 AM CST - Philadelphia Fed(Jan)
9:30 AM CST - EIA Gas Storage
3:30 AM CST - Money Supply
LT: Feb Crude Lt(NYM)

01/21
Fri

7:30 AM CST - Dairy Products Prices
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales
2:00 PM CST - Cattle On Feed
2:00 PM CST - Cold Storage
LT: Jan DJIA Options(CME)
Jan S&P 500 Options(CME)
Jan E-Mini S&P 500 Options(CME)
Jan NASDAQ Options(CME)
Jan E-Mini NASDSAQ Options(CME)
Jan Russell Options(CME)
Feb 2,5 & 10 Year Notes Options(CBT)
Feb Bonds Options(CBT)
Feb Corn,Oats,Rough Rice Options(CBT)
Feb Soybeans,Soymeal,Soyoil Options(CBT)
Feb Wheat Options(CBT)
Feb Orange Juice Options(ICE)
01/24
Mon
  FN: Feb Crude Lt(NYM)
01/25
Tue
8:00 AM CST - Case-Shiller 20-City Index(Nov)
9:00 AM CST - Consumer Confidence(Jan)
9:00 AM CST - FHFA Housing Price Index(Nov)
FOMC MEETING
 
01/26
Wed
9:00 AM CST - New Home Sales(Dec)
9:30 AM CST - API & DOE Energy Stats
1:15 PM CST - FOMC Rate Decision
LT: Feb Copper Options(CMX)
Feb Silver Options(CMX)
Feb Gold Options(CMX)
Feb Heating Oil Options(NYM)
Feb RBOB Gasoline Options(NYM)
Feb Natural Gas Options(NYM)
01/27
Thu
7:00 AM CST - Census Crush
7:00 AM CST - Cotton Consumption
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly
7:30 AM CST - Durable Orders(Dec)
9:00 AM CST - Pending Home Sales(Nov)
9:00 AM CST - EIA Gas Storage
3:30 PM CST - Money Supply
LT: Jan Copper(CMX)
Jan Gold(CMX)
Jan Silver(CMX)
Jan Platinum(CMX)
Jan Palladium(CMX)
Jan Feeder Cattle(CME)
Feb Natural Gas(NYM)
Jan Feeder Cattle Options(CME)
01/28
Fri
7:30 AM CST - Dairy Products Prices
7:30 AM CST - Chain Deflator-Adv(Q4)
7:30 AM CST - Employment Cost Index(Q4)
7:30 AM CST - GDP-Adv(Q4)
7:30 AM CST - GDP Deflator(Q4)
8:55 AM CST - Michigan Sentiment-Final(Jan)
2:00 PM CST - Cattle Inventory
FN: Feb Natural Gas(NYM)
01/31
Mon
7:30 AM CST - PCE Prices-Core(Dec)
7:30 AM CST - Personal Income & Spending(Dec)
8:45 AM CST - Chicago PMI(Jan)
FN: Feb Copper(CMX)
Feb Gold(NYM)
Feb Silver(NYM)
Feb Platinum(NYM)
Feb Palladium(NYM)
LT: Jan Fed Funds(CME)
Feb Heating Oil(NYM)
Feb RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
Jan Fed Funds Options(CME)
Feb Lumber Options(CME)
02/1
Tue
   

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* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.

** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!