In This Issue
1. Soybean Oil Pops, But Bulls Need to Show Follow-Through Strength
2. February Futures Forecast: Coming to Our Census
3. Economic Calendar
March soybean oil futures at the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday popped to a fresh two-week high and gained over 100 points on the day. Short covering, or the buying back of previously sold positions, and fresh speculative bargain-hunting buying were featured. Bullishly postured "outside markets" also supported buying interest in soybean oil Tuesday, as crude oil futures prices were sharply higher and the U.S. dollar index was weaker. The bean oil bulls did gain a bit of fresh near-term technical momentum on Tuesday. The very short-term moving averages (4-day and 9-day) did produce a bullish line crossover signal on the daily chart for March soybean oil, as the 4-day crossed above the 9-day moving average. A very steep downtrend line drawn from the January high has also been negated in March soybean oil. However, the soybean oil bulls need to show that technically important follow-through buying strength yet this week to begin to suggest that a market low is in place. Strong overhead technical resistance for March soybean oil is located at 38.00 cents. Strong technical support is located at this week's low of 35.80 cents.
Jim has an excellent daily newsletter where he reviews different markets, alerts you for potential trades and much more. Included is his great bi-weekly newsletter with charts and a little longer term outlook. We recommend checking out his website, educational CDROM, and services at Jim Wyckoff
Just one month in, 2010 has already been a year of surprises. The shocking election of a Republican to fill Teddy Kennedy's seat in the Senate has severely curtailed the President's legislative agenda, and it now appears that universal healthcare and serious financial system reform may be off the table this year. As a result, the political focus has returned to the economy and job creation. A number of key data points in February will influence the markets and perceptions of how the recovery is fairing. Key among them is US jobs data this month which could provide a platform for recovery predictions thanks to some help from census related hiring.
Starting with data released this month, payroll numbers will be skewed higher by the Federal government hiring thousands of census workers. Early last year, the Obama Administration announced that as part of the stimulus package, 1.4M workers would be hired for the 2010 Census. By comparison in the first five months of 1990 and 2000, the census bureau hired 330K and 515K workers, respectively, and workers rolled off the payrolls over the next few months. According to analysts, at the peak of census hiring this year, payrolls could be bolstered by up to 700K m/m, which could temporarily push down the unemployment rate by a full percentage point. As these jobs come off the payrolls in the second half of the year, unemployment is forecasted rise back toward 10%.
Keeping in mind the potential for census hiring to distort the data, current consensus expectations of a net gain of 25 thousand non-farm jobs in January could be conservative. The January employment data scheduled for release on February 5, is also expected to show unemployment holding steady at 10%...
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Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
| 02/04 Thu |
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly 7:30 AM CST - Productivity-Prel(Q4) 7:30 AM CST - Unit Labor Costs-Prelim(Q4) 9:00 AM CST - Factory Orders(Dec) 9:35 AM CST - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CST - Money Supply |
|
| 02/05 Fri |
7:30 AM CST - Dairy Products Prices
7:30 AM CST - Ave Workweek & Hourly Earnings(Jan) 7:30 AM CST - Nonfarm Payrolls(Jan) 7:30 AM CST - Unemployment Rate(Jan) 2:00 PM CST - Consumer Credit(Dec) |
LT: Feb Canadian Dollar Options(CME)
Feb Currencies Options(CME) Feb US Dollar Index Options(ICE) Feb Live Cattle Options(CME) Feb Pork Bellies Options(CME) Mar Cocoa Options(ICE) Mar Cotton Options(NYM) |
| 02/08 Mon |
|
FN: Feb Live Cattle(CME)
Feb Pork Bellies(CME) |
| 02/09 Tue |
7:30 AM CST - WASDE Report & Crop Production
7:30 AM CST - Supply & Demand 9:00 AM CST - Wholesale Inventories(Dec) |
|
| 02/10 Wed |
7:30 AM CST - Trade Balance(Dec)
9:30 AM CST - API & DOE Energy Stats 1:00 PM CST - Treasury Budget(Jan) |
LT: Mar Coffee Options(ICE)
|
| 02/11 Thu |
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly 7:30 AM CST - Retail Sales(Jan) 9:00 AM CST - Business Inventories(Dec) 9:35 AM CST - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CST - Money Supply |
LT: Mar Brent Crude Oil(NYM)
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