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Technicals Last Week Foresaw Plunge in Hogs This Week
Economic Reports and Expiration Notices
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With a career spanning almost 30 years, Carol Harmer is one of the most respected and established technical analysts in the UK and a founding member of the STA (The Society of Technical Analysts), working as Manager of Technical Analysis for Midland Bank, Nomura and Credit Suisse and appearing on Bloomberg, CNBC and Reuters financial TV.
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This document is not to be construed as investment advice..The content of this document is intended solely for the use of market professionals as defined in the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. This document is for information and data purposes only and should not be construed as soliticiation or seen as advice for the purchase or selling of any investment contained herein. Any purchase or selling of any investment instrument contained within these documents are to made at the persons own risk..Source date is believed to be reliable thus Charmercharts and technicalalanaysisreports.com accepts no responsibility incurred as a result of this communication..... Charts courtesy of CQG and E Signal..All rights reserved worldwide... Charmercharts and technicalalanaysisreports.com 2009
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Lean hog futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have seen this week serious chart damage inflicted, amid big gap-lower price moves on the daily chart and fresh contract lows established. While the fundamental news has dominated the pork futures complex this week, what with the heretofore called "swine flu" scare worldwide, the technical picture last week was significantly bearish and did suggest serious downside price potential. This is a classic example of how technical chart analysis is a front-runner of fundamental market events. In June lean hog futures, price action last week and in the previous weeks had produced a bearish symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily bar chart. Symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns, and given that the most recent price trend in hog futures had been down, technical odds did suggest a downside "breakout" from the triangle pattern, which occurred in strong fashion on Monday. Measuring implications from the symmetrical triangle pattern in June lean hogs do point to a downside objective to the $64.00 area. From a longer-term technical perspective, an examination of the weekly continuation chart for nearby lean hog futures shows that price action this week has produced a bearish gap down on the weekly chart. Longer-term technical support is located at $57.10, at $55.70 and at the 2008 low of $53.90, basis the nearby futures contract. For the lean hog bulls to begin to regain some near-term technical momentum and to begin to suggest that a market bottom is in place, they would have to push and close June futures prices above a strong technical resistance zone located between $68.65 (the February low) and $69.65 (this week's high).
Visit our educational series on chart patterns in futures trading to read more about descending (bearish) triangles.
Jim has an excellent daily newsletter where he reviews different markets, alerts you for potential trades and much more. Included is his great bi-weekly newsletter with charts and a little longer term outlook. We recommend checking out his website, educational CDROM, and services at Jim Wyckoff
Add grain prices to your site:
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30 Thu |
7:30 AM CDT - Personal Income & Spending(Mar)
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 8:45 AM CDT - Chicago PMI(Apr) 9:00 AM CDT - Employment Cost Index(Q1) 9:35 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply |
FN: May Gold(CMX)
May Silver(CMX) May Copper(CMX) May Platinum(CMX) May Palladium(CMX) May Corn(CBT) May Oats(CBT) May Rough Rice(CBT) May Wheat(CBT) May Soybeans(CBT) May Soyoil(CBT) May Soymeal(CBT) LT: Apr Feeder Cattle(CME) Apr Live Cattle(CME) Apr Fed Funds(CBT) May Heating Oil(NYM) May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) Apr Live Cattle Options(CME) Apr Feeder Cattle Options(CME) May Lumber Options(CME) |
| 05/01 Fri |
7:30 AM CDT - Dairy Products Prices
8:55 AM CDT - Mich Sentiment-Rev(Apr) 9:00 AM CDT - Factory Orders(Mar) 9:00 AM CDT - ISM Index(Apr) Auto & Truck Sales |
FN: May Orange Juice(ICE)
LT: May Live Cattle Options(CME) Jun Cocoa Options(ICE) |
| 05/04 Mon |
9:00 AM CDT - Construction Spending(Mar)
9:00 AM CDT - Pending Home Sales(Mar) |
FN: May Heating Oil(NYM)
May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) |
| 05/05 Tue |
9:00 AM CDT - ISM Index(Apr)
|
|
| 05/06 Wed |
7:15 AM CDT - ADP Employment Change(Apr)
9:35 AM CDT - API & DOE Energy Stats |
LT: May Cotton(ICE)
|
| 05/07 Thu |
7:30 AM CDT - Productivity-Prel(Q1)
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 7:30 AM CDT - Unit Labor Costs(Q1) 9:35 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply 2:00 PM CDT - Consumer Credit(Mar) |
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* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!