In This Issue
Dec. Hogs Hit New Low; No Clues of Bottoming
November Monthly Futures Outlook: Uncertainty Meets its Matchr
Economic Reports and Expiration Notices
by Jim Wyckoff
December lean hog futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday gapped lower on the daily bar chart and hit a fresh contract low of $53.90 as of this writing. Prices remain in a solid three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart, with no early technical clues that a market bottom is close at hand. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing December futures prices below solid longer-term technical support at the 2007 low of $50.65. Below that lies longer-term technical support at $48.00. For the lean hog bulls to regain some fresh upside near-term technical momentum, they would have to push and close December futures prices above solid technical resistance at $56.00.
Jim has an excellent daily newsletter where he reviews different markets, alerts you for potential trades and much more. Included is his great bi-weekly newsletter with charts and a little longer term outlook. We recommend checking out his website, educational CDROM, and services at Jim Wyckoff
by Trade the News
Any month would be an island of calm compared to October, which saw record-setting moves and stomach churning declines among key indices. The VIX volatility index smashed through its prior record high, vaulting to nearly 90 thanks to the credit crisis. Volatility shook the DJIA, which had its worst month in 20 years despite its biggest one-day point gain ever on October 13th, while the Nikkei ended the month down 24%, its largest monthly drop in history. The TED spread, the difference between three-month US Treasury futures and three-month contracts for Eurodollars with the same expiration, hit a record level of 456 bps mid-month. Currency markets saw a record 12% one-month move in the dollar against the euro, while the Canadian Dollar lost about 20% against the greenback during the month. A host of emerging market currencies reached record lows against the dollar. Markets are still plagued by uncertainty, but November could provide a measure of stability after the roughest two months in recent memory. The outcome of the US election as well as a number of key economic events will determine just how much comfort we can expect.
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Report includes analysis of earnings, commodities, market politics, rate cuts, europe, and more.
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Disclaimer:
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results. This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current futures market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
|---|---|---|
| 11/06 Thu |
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 7:30 AM CDT - Productivity-Prel(Q3) 9:35 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply |
LT: Nov Orange Juice(ICE)
|
| 11/07 Fri |
7:30 AM CDT - Dairy Products Prices
7:30 AM CDT - Ave Workweek & Hourly Earnings(Oct) 7:30 AM CDT - Nonfarm Payrolls(Oct) 7:30 AM CDT - Unemployment Rate(Oct) 9:00 AM CDT - Pending Home Sales(Sep) 9:00 AM CDT - Wholesale Inventories(Sep) 2:00 PM CDT - Consumer Credit(Sep) |
LT: Nov Live Cattle Options(CME)
Nov Canadian Dollar Options(CME) Nov Currencies Options(CME) Dec Cocoa Options(ICE) Dec Cotton Options(ICE) |
| 11/10 Mon |
7:30 AM CDT - Cotton Ginnings
7:30 AM CDT - WASDE Report & Crop Production 7:30 AM CDT - Supply & Demand |
|
| 11/11 Tue |
Veterans Day Holiday
|
LT: Nov US Dollar Index Options(ICE)
Dec Coffee Options(ICE) |
| 11/12 Wed |
|
|
| 11/13 Thu |
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 7:30 AM CDT - Trade Balance(Sep) 9:35 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage 9:35 AM CDT - API & DOE Energy Stats 1:00 PM CDT - Treasury Budget(Oct) 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply |
FN: Dec Cocoa(ICE)
|
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!