In This Issue
December 2008 Dax Index Looking for Support
Economic Reports and Expiration Notices
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by MF Global Research
Excerpt
U.S. 10 year futures are expected to range sideways with a slight up side bias on the back of weak economic conditions. TYZ8 should trade between 114-00 and 118-00. The treasury market is distorted by a concoction of fickle safe haven flows, and underlying economic weakness and falling inflationary pressures which are bullish. Poor valuation may make a strong price rally difficult. Treasuries are expensive relative to credit and equities. . Additionally, the passing of the TARP plan may lead to risk taking and weigh on fixed income prices. The major opportunities in the credit market rest in playing for aggressive monetary ease by the BOE and ECB, and trading for a prolonged period of low short term interest rates. Credit stress is expected to ease post monetary ease in Europe and government measures to support the banking system. The markets will then focus on weak economic conditions. The global economy is faltering with the global manufacturing PMI at 44.2 in September. The PMI is plunging toward the levels seen during the recession of the early 2000's. Consumer spending is restrained in the U.S. and Europe and housing shows little sign of recovery. Unemployment rates are up sharply in Ireland, Spain, and the U.S. indicating slack in the global labor market. Likewise, the emerging world is slowing with construction activity falling and hiring easing in Russia, slowing economic growth in Brazil, and loss of economic momentum in Asia. In Japan, the Q3 Manufacturing Tankan contracted to its weakest level since 2002, while the Chinese PMI was below 50 for a second month in September. Aggressive rate cuts by the BOE and ECB should allow September 2009 short sterling and Euribor contracts to rally sharply into next year. The BOE is likely to cut rates October 8th and Trichet's dovish tenor opened the door to ECB eases. There might by a coordinated move to lower rates if the TARP plan fails to stabilize the system. The Fed will lower the fed funds rate to 150 bps into next year, but will use its bullets wisely.
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Report includes analysis of the equity market, currencies, precious metals, energies, grains, crb, and trade recommendations.
Cannon Trading respects your privacy and will never give this information to a 3rd party.
Disclaimer:
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results. This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current futures market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
|---|---|---|
| 10/09 Thu |
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CDT - Wholesale Inventories(Aug) 9:35 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply |
FN: Oct Live Cattle(CME)
LT: Oct Cotton(ICE) |
| 10/10 Fri |
7:30 AM CDT - Cotton Ginnings
7:30 AM CDT - WASDE Report & Crop Production 7:30 AM CDT - Supply & Demand 7:30 AM CDT - Dairy Products Prices 7:30 AM CDT - Import & Export Prices(Sep) 7:30 AM CDT - Trade Balance(Aug) |
LT: Sep Orange Juice(ICE)
Oct US Dollar Index Options(ICE) Oct Eurodollar Options(CME) Nov Coffee Options(ICE) |
| 10/13 Mon |
Columbus Day Holiday
1:00 PM CDT - Treasury Budget(Sep) |
LT: Oct LIBOR(CME)
Oct US T-Bill(CBT) Oct Eurodollar(CME) Oct LIBOR Options(CME) |
| 10/14 Tue |
NOPA Crush
|
LT: Oct Lean Hogs(CME)
Oct Soybean Meal(CBT) Oct Soybean Oil(CBT) Oct Lean Hogs Options(CME) |
| 10/15 Wed |
7:30 AM CDT - Core PPI & PPI(Sep)
7:30 AM CDT - NY Empire State Index(Oct) 7:30 AM CDT - Retail Sales(Sep) 9:00 AM CDT - Business Inventories(Aug) 9:35 AM CDT - API & DOE Energy Stats 1:00 PM CDT - Fed's Beige Book |
LT: Oct GSCI(CBT)
Nov Sugar Options(ICE) Nov Platinum Options(NYM) |
| 10/16 Thu |
7:30 AM CDT - Core CPI & CPI(Sep)
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 8:00 AM CDT - Net Foreign Purchases(Aug) 8:15 AM CDT - Capacity Util & Industrial Prod(Sep) 9:00 AM CDT - Philadelphia Fed(Oct) 9:35 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply |
LT: Nov Crude Oil Options(NYM)
|
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!