In This Issue
Top 10 Questions You Should Ask Yourself to Measure Your Trading Progress and Success
Soybean Bulls Starting to Fade a Bit
Economic Reports and Expiration Notices
At some point in nearly everyone's trading timelines, they wonder how their trading successes (or failures) compare with those of other traders. Wondering just how well you stack up to other traders in the industry is a natural curiosity and a human psychological tendency. However, actually knowing the success or failure rates of others doesn't do a lot to move you farther down the road of where you want to be regarding trading success.
Most traders also wonder about the success rates of the "professional" traders—the ones who make their living solely by the profits they generate from trading. I will provide you with an answer to this question at the end of this feature.
Below are 10 questions regarding measuring your own trading progress and success. These questions should help you determine where you stand in this challenging field of endeavor.
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November soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday closed lower and closed at a fresh three-week low close. While no serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted as prices have backed well down from the contract high of $16.36 3/4 a bushel, scored on July 3, the soybean bulls have begun to fade a bit and need to show fresh power soon. A close in November soybeans below solid technical support at the July low of $14.81 would begin to produce some significant near-term technical damage to begin to suggest that at least a near-term market top is in place. For the soybean bulls to regain some fresh upside near-term technical momentum they would have to push and close November futures prices back above solid technical resistance at this week's high of $15.83 1/2. The soybean bears can put forth an argument that a bearish descending triangle pattern is forming on the daily bar chart, with a close below support at $14.73 3/4 then being the beginning of a bearish downside "breakout" from that chart pattern. From a Fibonacci technical perspective, November soybeans are not yet close to being in any technical danger. The 38.2 percent retracement level of the price move from the April low of $10.45 1/4 to the contract high of $16.36 3/4 comes in at $14.11, which is still well below present prices. The more important 50% retracement level of the aforementioned price move comes in at $13.41. Importantly, this time of year the weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt are generally the major market factors for soybeans. An unexpected shift in weather forecasts for the Corn Belt would trump technicals regarding market importance. August is arguably the most important growing month for soybeans in the Corn Belt.
Jim has an excellent daily newsletter where he reviews different markets, alerts you for potential trades and much more. Included is his great bi-weekly newsletter with charts and a little longer term outlook. We recommend checking out his website, educational CDROM, and services at Jim Wyckoff
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
|---|---|---|
| 07/17 Thu |
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Housing Starts & Building Permits(Jun) 7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CDT - Philadelphia Fed(Jul) 9:35 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply |
LT: Aug Crude Oil Options(NYM)
|
| 07/18 Fri |
|
LT: Jul Valueline Options(KCBT)
Jul DJIA Options(CBT) Jul E-Mini S&P 500 Options(CME) Jul Nasdaq 100 Options(CME) Jul S&P 500 Options(CME) Jul Nikkei 225 Options(CME) Aug Orange Juice Options(ICE) |
| 07/21 Mon |
9:00 AM CDT - Leading Indicators(Jun)
|
LT: Jul Coffee(ICE)
|
| 07/22 Tue |
2:00 PM - Cold Storage
|
LT: Aug Crude Oil(NYM)
|
| 07/23 Wed |
9:35 AM CDT - API & DOE Energy Stats
1:00 PM CDT - Fed's Beige Book |
|
| 07/24 Thu |
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CDT - Existing Home Sales(Jun) 9:35 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply |
FN: Aug Crude Oil(NYM)
|
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!