In This Issue
Economic Reports and Expiration Notices
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Through year-end, energy prices are expected to lose a moderate amount of the volatility and price appreciation that was added in September & October this year. We view the fall rally as the result of substantial inflows of funds to commodity markets as well as a play on the weak dollar and on growth in China & India. Background support has come from strength in global stock markets, sub-prime fallout that hasn't been as bad as previously believed, backwardation in the futures pricing structure, and speculation as to whether oil output can meet current consumption. MFGR believes that the last two of those factors will unwind over the next few months and add pressure on oil prices. Also adding pressure is the $15/bbl rally in oil since the September 11th OPEC meeting, which seems counterintuitive since output was raised. The output hike, the threat of additional OPEC production, and the growth in non-OPEC output should be enough to satisfy demand growth at least through 2008. Additional pressure will come from negative seasonal patterns, an unwind of hurricane premiums, reduced gasoline demand, and NOAA's calls for a warm winter. Prices may appreciate again in early '08 as the focus returns to refining issues and a soft landing in the U.S. Price predictions will be difficult, but crude oil is expected to range between $75-$100/bbl.Research provided by MF Global
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Disclaimer:
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results. This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current futures market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!
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Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
|---|---|---|
| 11/01 Thu |
7:30 AM CDT - Personal Income & Spending(Sep)
7:30 AM CDT - Core PCE Inflation(Sep) 7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CDT - ISM Index(Oct) 9:00 AM CDT - Pending Home Sales(Sep) 9:30 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply Auto & Truck Sales |
FN: Nov Orange Juice(NYBOT)
|
| 11/02 Fri |
7:30 AM CDT - Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemploy Rate(Oct) 7:30 AM CDT - Ave Workweek & Hourly Earnings(Oct) 9:00 AM CDT - Factory Orders(Sep) 2:00 PM CDT - Dairy Products Prices |
FN: Nov Heating Oil(NYM)
Nov RB Gasoline(NYM) Nov Live Cattle Options(CME) Dec Cocoa Options(NYBOT) |
| 11/05 Mon |
9:00 AM CST - ISM Services(Oct)
|
|
| 11/06 Tue |
|
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| 11/07 Wed |
7:30 AM CST - Productivity-Prelim(Q3)
9:00 AM CST - Wholesale Inventories(Sep) 9:30 AM CST - API & DOE Energy Stats 2:00 PM CST - Consumer Credit(Sep) |
|
| 11/08 Thu |
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:30 AM CST - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CST - Money Supply |
LT: Nov Orange Juice(NYBOT)
|
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!