In This Issue
10 Key Questions on Measuring Your Trading Progress and Success
Coffee Backs Way Off After Beneficial Rains in Brazil
Economic Reports and Expiration Notices
At some point in nearly everyone's trading timelines, they wonder how their trading successes (or failures) compare with those of other traders. Wondering just how well you stack up to other traders in the industry is a natural curiosity and a human psychological tendency. However, actually knowing the success or failure rates of others doesn't do a lot to move you farther down the road of where you want to be regarding trading success.
Most traders also wonder about the success rates of the "professional" traders—the ones who make their living solely by the profits they generate from trading. I will provide you with an answer to this question at the end of this feature.
Below are 10 questions regarding measuring your own trading progress and success. These questions should help you determine where you stand in this challenging field of endeavor.
1. What is trading "success?" This is a most basic question. Most would agree that ultimate trading success is defined as being profitable at trading—making more money than you lose. There are other secondary factors that also define success in trading, such as finding a "balance" between trading and other life activities. But it's being profitable at trading that is the benchmark of defining success.
2. What is trading "progress?" Beginning traders should not expect to have immediate and ultimate success trading futures, stocks or FOREX markets. What they can expect in the early going is to make steady progress through gaining knowledge and experience. Even veteran successful traders continue to make trading progress. Achieving and maintaining trading success requires continual progress—namely continuing to seek out trading and market knowledge. Traders who truly enjoy the "progress" and process of trading do have a significant trading edge over those who do not enjoy learning and gaining experience.
3. At what point in my trading timeline should I expect trading "success?" Trading success (winning trades) can come right away—even for the beginning traders. What is less likely for the inexperienced traders is sustained trading success. Beginners can even run into a "hot streak" that skews the overall reality of trading. Immediate (and likely fleeting) success for a beginning futures trader can do longer-term psychological harm—if he or she does not fully recognize and understand the hard work and perseverance required on the road to trading success. Many times I get questions from less-experienced traders that go something like this: "I've been trading two years and I've only been able to about break even." My reply to them is, "Hey, you should not be too discouraged with those results. Many traders don't have that kind of success in the early going."
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Disclaimer:
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results. This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current futures market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!
by Jim Wyckoff
Click the image to enlarge.
December coffee futures have backed way off from the early-October high as serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted to suggest that a near-term market top is in place. See on the daily chart that a bearish broadening pattern has formed. Broadening patterns are created by higher volatility at higher price levels, which by itself is a warning signal of a topping process in a market. Recent beneficial rains in previously dry Brazilian coffee-growing regions is a main bearish fundamental factor that has pressed the market sharply down from the early-October high of $1.4080 a pound. The next downside price objective for the coffee bears is to push and close December futures below solid technical support and trend-line support at the $1.1800 area. Bulls would regain some upside technical momentum by pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at the $1.2800 level. Stay tuned!
Jim has an excellent daily newsletter where he reviews different markets, alerts you for potential trades and much more. Included is his great bi-weekly newsletter with charts and a little longer term outlook. We recommend checking out his website, educational CDROM, and services at Jim Wyckoff
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
|---|---|---|
| 10/25 Thu |
7:30 AM CDT - Durable Orders(Sep)
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CDT - Help-Wanted Index(Sep) 9:00 AM CDT - New Home Sales(Sep) 9:30 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply |
LT: Oct Feeder Cattle(CME)
Oct Feeder Cattle Options(CME) Nov Copper Options(CMX) Nov Gold Options(CMX) Nov Silver Options(CMX) |
| 10/26 Fri |
9:00 AM CDT - Michigan Sentiment-Rev(Oct)
2:00 PM CDT - Dairy Products Prices 2:00 PM CDT - Livestock Slaughter |
LT: Nov Wheat Options(CBT)
Nov Rough Rice Options(CBT) Nov Corn Options(CBT) Nov Oat Options(CBT) Nov Heating Oil Options(NYM) Nov RB Gasoline Options(NYM) Nov Natural Gas Options(NYM) Nov Soybean Options(CBT) Nov U.S. Bonds(CBT) |
| 10/29 Mon |
|
LT: Oct Gold(CMX)
Oct Silver(CMX) Oct Copper(CMX) Oct Platinum(NYM) Oct Palladium(NYM) Nov Natural Gas(NYM) |
| 10/30 Tue |
9:00 AM CDT - Consumer Confidence(Oct)
|
FN: Nov Natural Gas(NYM)
|
| 10/31 Wed |
7:30 AM CDT - GDP-Adv(Q3) 7:30 AM CDT - Chain Deflator-Adv 7:30 AM CDT - Employment Cost Index(Q3) 8:45 AM CDT - Chicago PMI(Oct) 9:00 AM CDT - Construction Spending(Sep) 9:30 AM CDT - API & DOE Energy Stats 1:15 PM CDT - FOMC Meeting |
FN: Nov Soybeans(CBT)
Nov Corn(CBT) Nov Gold(CMX) Nov Silver(CMX) Nov Copper(CMX) Nov Platinum(NYM) Nov Palladium(NYM) Nov Rough Rice(CBT) LT: Oct Fed Funds(CBT) Oct Live Cattle(CME) Nov Heating Oil(NYM) Nov RB Gasoline(NYM) Nov Lumber Options(CBT) |
| 11/01 Thu |
7:30 AM CDT - Personal Income & Spending(Sep)
7:30 AM CDT - Core PCE Inflation(Sep) 7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CDT - ISM Index(Oct) 9:00 AM CDT - Pending Home Sales(Sep) 9:30 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply Auto & Truck Sales |
FN: Nov Orange Juice(NYBOT)
|
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!