In This Issue
Free Download: 9 Page Energy Seasonal Outlook
Lumber Futures Showing Early Signs of Major Market Low
Economic Reports and Expiration Notices
Booklet Summary
Energy markets are expected to reverse the lower oil/higher gasoline price trend that developed this spring. Refineries are expected to come back online in force this summer, after so many of them have recovered from scheduled and unscheduled maintenance issues. Increasing refinery utilization should lead to higher demand for crude oil, thus keeping oil prices supported. Support will also come from OPEC adherence to production quotas, troubles in Nigeria and Iraq, and expectations for a moderately active hurricane season. The Brent-WTI spread is expected to fall, but Brent should not reach the discount that was typical prior to this spring anytime soon. MGR looks for crude oil to move up toward $68.00/bbl by mid-summer, with Brent crude advancing toward $70.00. Heating oil also should enjoy favorable conditions starting around mid-summer and could rally toward $1.91 by summerŐs end.
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July lumber futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Tuesday gapped higher on the daily bar chart and hit a fresh four-week high of $256.40. Recent price action has also penetrated on the upside and negated a downtrend line drawn off the January high of $321.00. Bulls are now encouraged that a major market low could finally be in place. However, veteran lumber market traders know the higher volatility that lumber futures tend to exhibit. Bulls would gain better confidence that a major market low is in place in the lumber futures market by seeing the July contract produce multiple closes above stiff overhead technical resistance at $260.00. Bears' next downside technical objective is to produce a close in July lumber futures below the recent contract low of $240.70. Veteran lumber futures traders also know that once new price trends do get kicked off in the market, they tend to be steep price trends. A look at the longer-term monthly continuation chart for nearby lumber futures shows that over the past 25 years, there have been many V-top and V-bottom reversal patterns formed.
Jim has an excellent daily newsletter where he reviews different markets, alerts you for potential trades and much more. Included is his great bi-weekly newsletter with charts and a little longer term outlook. We recommend checking out his website, educational CDROM, and services at Jim Wyckoff
Disclaimer:
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results. This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current futures market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
|---|---|---|
| 05/17 Thu |
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CDT - Leading Indicators(Apr) 9:30 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage 11:00 AM CDT - Philadelphia Fed(May) 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply |
LT: Jun Crude Oil Options(NYM)
|
| 05/18 Fri |
9:00 AM CDT - Michigan Sentiment-Prel(May)
2:00 PM CDT - Cattle on Feed 2:00 PM CDT - Dairy Products Prices |
LT: May Valueline Options(KCBT)
May Nikkei 225 Options(CME) May DJIA Options(CBT) May Nasdaq 100 Options(CME) May S&P 500 Options(CME) May E-Mini S&P 500 Options(CME) Jun Orange Juice Options(NYBOT) |
| 05/21 Mon |
|
LT: May Coffee(NYBOT)
|
| 05/22 Tue |
|
LT: Jun Crude Oil(NYM)
|
| 05/23 Wed |
9:30 AM CDT - API & DOE Energy Stats
|
|
| 05/24 Thu |
7:30 AM CDT - Durable Orders(Apr)
7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CDT - New Home Sales(Apr) 9:30 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply |
FN: Jun Crude Oil(NYM)
LT: May Feeder Cattle Options(CME) June Copper Options(CME) June Gold Options(CME) June Silver Options(CME) |
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!