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February Outlook: Finding Clarity and Reassessing Risk
Reports and Expiration Notices
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Last month equity markets made no headway, crude slipped below $50 (before rebounding sharply) for the first time in 18 months, and the US dollar showed some newfound strength. After a choppy January in most markets, traders will look for new data this month to provide clues on the direction of the economy. Central bankers in Europe and Japan are still grappling with how and when to raise rates, even as US markets have been vacillating between the notion of the Fed easing interest rates to create an extra cushion for the soft landing and some expectations for new rate tightening created by a recent strain of hawkish Fed talk. In February, a number of economic releases, a handful of prominent earnings releases, and central banker commentaries and actions may provide some clarity to the currently muddled markets as participants reassess risks.
Earnings
A few stragglers are expected to report in February to close out the earnings season. Of particular note will be the earnings reports from retail giants Wal-Mart (reports 2/20) and Target (estimated report date 2/16), as well as Dell (estimated report date 2/16). Wal-Mart has given every indication that sales will be lackluster for the holiday quarter, but this may give it some opportunity to announce a positive surprise. On the other hand, Target has stuck to its 3%-5% sale store sales growth projections. On the retail technology side, Dell has already made some noises about how Microsofts Vista operating system release will help improve its sales, though it is unclear if there will be any impact on Dells first quarter guidance. These three reports should yield the final post-mortem on the holiday retail season.
Energy
After plummeting during the first half of January as unseasonably warm temperatures lingered...
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Disclaimer:
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results. This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current futures market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
|---|---|---|
| 02/01 Thu |
7:30 AM CST - Personal Income & Spending(Dec)
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CST - ISM Index(Jan) 9:30 AM CST - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CST - Money Supply Auto & Truck Sales |
|
| 02/02 Fri |
7:30 AM CST - Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemploy Rate(Jan) 7:30 AM CST - Ave Workweek & Hourly Earnings(Jan) 9:00 AM CST - Factory Orders(Dec) 9:00 AM CST - Michigan Sentiment-Rev(Jan) |
FN: Feb Heating Oil(NYM)
LT: Feb Live Cattle Options(CME) Feb Frozen Pork Bellies Options(CME) March Cocoa Options(NYBOT) |
| 02/05 Mon |
9:00 AM CST - ISM Services(Jan)
|
|
| 02/06 Tue |
|
FN: Feb Frozen Pork Bellies(CME)
|
| 02/07 Wed |
7:30 AM CST - Productivity-Prel(Q4)
9:30 AM CST - API & DOE Energy Stats 2:00 PM CST - Consumer Credit(Dec) |
|
| 02/08 Thu |
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CST - Wholesale Inventories(Dec) 9:30 AM CST - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CST - Money Supply |
FN: Feb Live Cattle(CME)
|
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!