In This Issue
Weekly South American Soybean Update
Reports and Expiration Notices
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By James Barnett, Man Financial
The weather in southern Brazil has been generally beneficial over the past week, and forecast rains over the next several days should go a long way to ensuring trend-or-better yields in Rio Grande do Sul. Our affiliate predicted that the crop in RGDS may come in better-than- expected.
Yields have been highly variable but are generally running 5-10% below expectations across Mato Grosso and Parana, while yields are averaging near expectations in MGDS. The erratic and generally disappointing yields in MG and parts of Parana have been attributed to a combination of uneven rains and the impact of Asian rust.
The Brazilian harvest is 35% complete. Rapid harvesting has resumed across much of the country and is 63% complete in MG. Goias did face rain delays, with harvest only progressing 4 points over the past week, to 38%.
Farmers have committed to sales for 33% of their projected crop, but no more than 15% of their crop has been priced. Committed sales total 57% of the crop in MG, 41% in Bahia, 28% in MGDS, 25% in Parana, and 10% in RDGS. Crushers have begun to be more aggressive in buying beans lately, while high interior transportation costs have limited the movement of beans into the export market. A trucking strike has blocked movement in MGDS, but a lack of exporter buying interest has limited the impact of this strike.
The export line-up is seasonally beginning to increase for soybeans, while the line-up for the products remains weak, particularly for soyoil, as advantageous exchange rates for the peso should make Argentine products a much more attractive option in the global market place when they begin to come online in about a month.
Our affiliate maintained its previous overall crop estimates, projecting the Brazilian soybean crop at 56.0-56.5 million tonnes and the Argentine crop at 39.0-39.5 million tonnes, although noting that some of his Argentine contacts have raised estimates of the country's soybean crop above 40 million tonnes.
There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing in this newsletter is intended to be a trading recommendation for you to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information in this newsletter.
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
|---|---|---|
| 03/23 Thu |
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CST - Existing Home Sales(Feb) 9:30 AM CST - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CST - Money Supply |
|
| 03/24 Fri |
7:30 AM CST - Durable Orders(Feb)
7:30 AM CST - Dairy Products Prices 9:00 AM CST - New Home Sales(Feb) |
|
| 03/27 Mon |
1:15 PM CST - FOMC Meeting - Day 2
|
|
| 03/28 Tue |
9:00 AM CST - Consumer Confidence(Mar)
1:15 PM CST - FOMC Meeting |
LT: Mar Frozen Pork Bellies(CME)
Apr Natural Gas Options(NYM) Apr Heating Oil Options(NYM) Apr Unleaded Gas Options(NYM) Apr Gold Options(CMX) |
| 03/29 Wed |
9:30 AM CST - API & DOE Energy Stats
|
LT: Mar Silver(CMX)
Mar Copper(CMX) Mar Palladium(NYM) Apr Natural Gas(NYM) |
| 03/30 Thu |
7:30 AM CST - GDP-Final(Q4) 7:30 AM CST - Chain Deflator-Final(Q4) 7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CST - Help-Wanted Index(Feb) 9:30 AM CST - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CST - Money Supply |
LT: Mar Feeder Cattle(CME)
Mar Feeder Cattle Options(CME) |
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!