In This Issue
Reports and Expiration Notices
Whether you are learning to trade or a veteran reviewing the fundamentals, you can benefit from the educational resources on our site.
Our free guides include:
Buying Options on Futures Contracts: A Guide to Uses and Risks
Glossary of Futures Terms
A Guide to Understanding Opportunities and Risks in Futures Trading
Trading in the Retail Off-Exchange Foreign Currency Market — What Investors Need to Know
The Story Behind the Financial Integrity of the U.S. Futures Markets
50 Important Rules often Violated by Futures Traders
by James Barnett, Man Financial
Brazil continues to be bathed with a steady progression of welcome rains, maintaining yield potential for at least 85% of the soybean crop. The only exceptions to this overall benign pattern is in parts of Bahia and northern Minas Gerais in the NE, along with scattered parts of southern Rio Grande do Sul.
Most of Argentina has benefited from soaking rains over the past weekend, reducing the area under some type of moisture stress to about 20% of the soybean crop, focused in NE Cordoba and parts of northern Santa Fe.
Soybeans are generally in the pod fill stage across central and northern Brazil, and this week's rains are crop makers. However, the soybeans in RGDS and across most of Argentina need another 3-4 weeks of beneficial conditions to assure a good crop.
Embrapa has now documented 730 cases of rust, up over 100 cases from last week, and have occurred all over the country but are focused in MGDS. Producers are in a race to control rust and are so far "doing everything right", but at the current exchange rate, 2 applications of fungicide run about 15% of expected income, assuming 2700 kilos/hectare (@ 45 BPA), and each application after that runs another 8% of expected income. This leads to very narrow profit margins, especially considering the exchange rate.
The real rallied most of last week, challenging Nov/Dec multiyear highs, a consequence of money flowing into Brazilian debt, as interest rates are among the highest in the world, at 17-18% for short term government debt. The Brazilian central bank is trying to support the U.S. dollar when the exchange rate dips below 2.20 real/$, but this remains a very bad level for Brazilian exporters. Our affiliate notes that the Argentine peso is currently trading around 3.0 pesos/$.
Our affiliate is maintaining his current crop estimate at 56-57 million tonnes and expects trendline yields of around 2,700 kilos/hectare (45 BPA). He projects the Argentine bean crop at 39-40 million tonnes, unchanged from last week.
Disclaimer: There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing in this newsletter is intended to be a trading recommendation for you to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information in this newsletter.
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
|---|---|---|
| 02/09 Thu |
7:30 AM CST - Crop Production & WASDE
7:30 AM CST - Supply/Demand Report 7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CST - Wholesale Inventories(Dec) 9:30 AM CST - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CST - Money Supply |
|
| 02/10 Fri |
7:30 AM CST - Dairy Products Prices
7:30 AM CST - Trade Balance(Dec) 1:00 PM CST - Treasury Budget(Jan) |
LT: Feb Gas Oil(IPE)
Mar Cotton Options(NYBOT) Mar Coffee Options(NYBOT) Mar Sugar Options(NYBOT) |
| 02/13 Mon |
Full Moon
|
LT: Mar Brent Crude Oil(IPE)
|
| 02/14 Tue |
7:30 AM CST - NOPA Crush
7:30 AM CST - Retail Sales(Jan) 9:00 AM CST - Business Inventories(Dec) Valentines Day |
FN: Mar Cocoa(NYBOT)
LT: Feb Lean Hogs(CME) Feb Lean Hogs Options(CME) |
| 02/15 Wed |
7:30 AM CST - NY Empire State Index(Feb)
8:00 AM CST - Net Foreign Purchases(Dec) 8:15 AM CST - Indus Prod & Capac Util(Jan) 9:30 AM CST - API & DOE Energy Stats |
LT: Feb GSCI Options(CME)
Mar Crude Oil Options(NYM) |
| 02/16 Thu |
7:30 AM CST - Export & Import Prices(Jan)
7:30 AM CST - Housing Starts & Building Permits(Jan) 7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:30 AM CST - EIA Gas Storage 11:00 AM CST - Philadelphia Fed(Feb) 3:30 PM CST - Money Supply |
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* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!
