In This Issue
Special Grains Report: The day before and after Thanksgiving
Reports and Expiration Notices
(all times are CST)
Wednesday, November 23
| Exchange | Details |
| CBOT | Floor: 12:00 close: Financial and agricultural products. Regular close: Equity products |
| eCBOT | 12:00 close: Dow-AIG commodity index products 12:30 close: Metals and mini-agricultural products 1:00 close: Financial products Overnight electronic trading will be closed |
| CME | Floor:
12:00 close: Commodity, foreign exchange, and interest rate products 12:02 close: Commodity options Regular close: Equity and GSCI products |
| GLOBEX | 12:00 close: E-Livestock products Regular close: Equity, foreign exchange, and interest rate products |
| Nymex/Comex | Regular close |
| NYBOT | 12:00 close: Financial products Regular close: Agricultural products |
| OneChicago | Regular close |
| Eurex US | 1:00 close: U.S. Treasury products Regular close: Russell products |
Thursday, November 24
| Exchange | Details |
| CBOT | Floor: Closed |
| eCBOT | Closed Electronic trading re-opens at regular evening times |
| CME | Floor: Closed |
| GLOBEX | 10:30 close: Equity products 12:00 close: Foreign exchange and interest rate products Electronic trading re-opens at regular evening times |
| Nymex/Comex | Closed |
| NYBOT | Closed |
| OneChicago | Closed |
| Eurex US | Closed |
Friday, November 25
| Exchange | Details |
| CBOT | 12:00 close: Financial and agricultural products 12:15: Equity products |
| eCBOT | Closed: Dow-AIG commodity index and metals products 12:30 close: Equity and mini-agricultural products 1:00 close: Financial products Overnight electronic trading will be closed |
| CME | Floor: 12:00 close: Commodity, foreign exchange, interest rate, and GSCI products 12:02 close: Commodity options 12:15: Equity products |
| GLOBEX | 12:00 close: E-Livestock products 12:15 close: Equity, foreign exchange, and interest rate products |
| Nymex/Comex | Closed |
| NYBOT | Closed |
| OneChicago | 12:00 Close |
| Eurex US | 1:00 close: U.S. Treasury products Regular close: Russell products |
Sunday, November 27
| Exchange | Details |
| CBOT | Floor: Closed |
| eCBOT | Electronic trading re-opens at regular evening times |
| CME | Floor: Closed |
| GLOBEX | Electronic trading re-opens at regular evening times |
| Nymex/Comex | Closed |
| NYBOT | Closed |
| OneChicago | Closed |
| Eurex US | Electronic trading re-opens at regular evening times |
By James Barnett
What happened to SF, CH and WH the day before and the day after Thanksgiving since 1975?
SF (January Soybeans) PRICE MOVES
| Day Before | Day After | |
| 75 | Up 19.50 | Up 20.00 |
| 76 | Up 4.25 | Dn 2.25 |
| 77 | Dn 4.25 | Dn 8.25 |
| 78 | Up 4.00 | Up 17.00 |
| 79 | Up 8.00 | Up 3.75 |
| 80 | Up 1.00 | Dn 0.50 |
| 81 | Up 8.50 | Up 10.59 |
| 82 | Up 3.50 | Up 2.75 |
| 83 | Dn 0.25 | Up 3.75 |
| 84 | Up 7.50 | Up 13.00 |
| 85 | Up 0.25 | Dn 5.75 |
| 86 | Up 5.50 | Up 0.50 |
| 87 | Up 5.25 | Up 1.25 |
| 88 | Up 3.00 | Up 10.75 |
| 89 | Up 5.25 | Up 10.50 |
| 90 | Up 9.00 | Up 4.75 |
| 91 | Up 0.25 | Dn 6.75 |
| 92 | Up 0.25 | Dn 3.00 |
| 93 | unch | Up 4.00 |
| 94 | Dn 0.25 | Up 2.75 |
| 95 | Up 4.75 | Up 4.75 |
| 96 | Up 2.25 | Dn 2.50 |
| 97 | Up 8.50 | Dn 3.00 |
| 98 | Up 1.00 | Up 11.00 |
| 99 | Dn 3.50 | Dn 2.00 |
| 00 | Up 2.00 | Up 9.75 |
| 01 | Up 1.50 | Up 1.25 |
| 02 | Up 4.25 | Up 1.50 |
| 03 | Dn .25 | Up 10.00 |
| 04 | Dn 7.25 | Dn 5.50 |
| Pct Years Up | 77% | 67% |
| Avg Up | 4.92 cents | 7.88 cents |
| Pct Years Dn | 20% | 33% |
| Avg Dn | 2.62 cents | 3.90 cents |
Comment: There is a strong tendency for SF to close higher on the day before and to a lesser extent the day after Thanksgiving. In 23 of the last 30 years, SF was up the day before Thanksgiving, and in 20 of the last 30 it was up the day after the holiday. This Thanksgiving seasonal dovetails with a longer-term bullish seasonal for soybeans that runs from mid-Nov though early Dec.
However, this Thanksgiving seasonal did not work last year, and there may have even been a tendency by the market to bid up Jan beans on the penultimate day before Thanksgiving, as some traders may have tried to jump the gun on this seasonal, leading to a sell-off of these short term longs on Wednesday.
CH (March Corn) PRICE MOVES
| Day Before | Day After | |
| 75 | Up 2.75 | Dn 2.25 |
| 76 | Dn 1.00 | Dn 2.00 |
| 77 | Up 1.00 | Up 3.75 |
| 78 | Up 1.75 | Up 0.50 |
| 79 | Up 3.25 | Dn 0.75 |
| 80 | Up 0.50 | Up 5.75 |
| 81 | Up 0.50 | Dn 1.75 |
| 82 | Up 0.50 | Dn 0.75 |
| 83 | Dn 0.75 | Up 3.75 |
| 84 | Dn 0.75 | Dn 1.75 |
| 85 | Up 2.00 | Up 1.25 |
| 86 | Up 2.00 | unch |
| 87 | Up 1.75 | Up 1.25 |
| 88 | Up 0.25 | Up 2.00 |
| 89 | Up 0.25 | Dn 1.25 |
| 90 | Dn 1.50 | Up 1.75 |
| 91 | Dn 0.50 | Dn 1.00 |
| 92 | Dn 1.75 | Dn 1.75 |
| 93 | Up 1.00 | Up 3.50 |
| 94 | Dn 3.00 | Up 1.00 |
| 95 | Up 1.75 | Up 2.25 |
| 96 | Dn 0.75 | Dn 2.50 |
| 97 | Up 3.25 | Dn 1.75 |
| 98 | Up 0.50 | Up 1.00 |
| 99 | Dn 0.75 | Dn 1.75 |
| 00 | Dn 0.75 | Up 0.75 |
| 01 | unch | Dn 0.25 |
| 02 | Dn 0.50 | Dn 2.75 |
| 03 | Up 2.75 | Up 1.50 |
| 04 | unch | Dn 1.25 |
| Pct Years Up | 57% | 47% |
| Avg Up | 1.51 cents | 2.24 cents |
| Pct Years Dn | 37% | 50% |
| Avg Dn | 1.17 cents | 1.57 cents |
Comments: The tendency to rally ahead of Thanksgiving is much less pronounced for corn than it is for soybeans, and the day-after seasonal is essentially non-existent. CH has rallied in 17 of the last 30 years the day before Thanksgiving while rallying in only 14 out of the last 30 years (with 15 declines and 1 unchanged) on the day after the holiday.
WH (March Wheat) PRICE MOVES
| Day Before | Day After | |
| 75 | Dn 1.25 | Dn 5.00 |
| 76 | unch | Dn 3.75 |
| 77 | Dn 0.25 | Up 3.50 |
| 78 | Up 6.50 | Up 8.25 |
| 79 | Up 2.25 | Dn 3.50 |
| 80 | Up 1.50 | Up 3.50 |
| 81 | Up 2.50 | Up 4.50 |
| 82 | Up 1.00 | Dn 7.25 |
| 83 | Up 5.50 | Up 3.50 |
| 84 | Up 0.25 | unch |
| 85 | Up 1.00 | Up 6.50 |
| 86 | Up 8.25 | Up 4.25 |
| 87 | Dn 2.25 | Up 0.50 |
| 88 | Up 5.00 | Up 6.00 |
| 89 | Dn 1.75 | Dn 0.50 |
| 90 | Up 4.75 | Dn 0.25 |
| 91 | Up 4.50 | Dn 3.50 |
| 92 | Up 1.00 | Dn 3.75 |
| 93 | Up 2.00 | Up 1.75 |
| 94 | Dn 2.50 | Up 1.00 |
| 95 | Up 4.25 | Up 2.75 |
| 96 | Dn 6.25 | Dn 6.75 |
| 97 | Up 5.50 | Up 1.75 |
| 98 | Up 2.00 | Dn 0.75 |
| 99 | Dn 4.00 | Dn 3.50 |
| 00 | Up 1.75 | Up 3.50 |
| 01 | Up .50 | Up .75 |
| 02 | Up 4.75 | Dn 4.0 |
| 03 | Unch | Up 8.00 |
| 04 | Dn 1.00 | Dn 1.00 |
| Pct Years Up | 67% | 53% |
| Avg Up | 3.40 cents | 3.47 cents |
| Pct Years Dn | 27% | 43% |
| Avg Dn | 2.41 cents | 3.35 cents |
Comment: There has been a fairly strong tendency for WH to rally the day before Thanksgiving, which it has done in 20 out of the last 30 years, with there being a much smaller tendency for it to rally on the day after Thanksgiving. However, WH posted small declines in both the pre- and post-holiday sessions last year.
Disclaimer: There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing in this newsletter is intended to be a trading recommendation for you to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information in this newsletter.
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
|---|---|---|
| 11/23 Wed |
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly 8:45 AM CST - Michigan Sentiment-Rev(Nov) 9:30 AM CST - API & DOE Energy Stats 3:30 PM CST - Money Supply |
LT: Dec Unleaded Gas Options(NYM)
Dec Heating Oil Options(NYM) Dec Natural Gas Options(NYM) |
| 11/24 Thu |
Thanksgiving Holiday
|
|
| 11/25 Fri |
2:00 PM CST - Livestock Slaughter
|
|
| 11/28 Mon |
9:00 AM CST - Existing Home Sales(Oct)
|
LT: Dec Natural Gas(NYM)
Nov Copper(CMX) Nov Mini Silver Nov Mini Gold |
| 11/29 Tue |
7:30 AM CST - Durable Orders(Oct)
9:00 AM CST - Consumer Confidence(Nov) 9:00 AM CST - New Home Sales(Oct) |
FN: Dec Natural Gas(NYMEX)
|
| 11/30 Wed |
7:30 AM CST - GDP-Prel(Q3)
7:30 AM CST - Chain Deflator-Prel(Q3) 9:00 AM CST - Chicago PMI(Nov) 9:30 AM CST - API & DOE Energy Stats 1:00 PM CST - Fed's Beige Book |
FN: Dec Gold(CMX)
Dec Silver(CMX) Dec Copper(CMX) Dec Mini Silver Dec Mini Gold Dec Corn(CBT) Dec Oats(CBT) Dec Soybean Oil(CBT) Dec Soybean Meal(CBT) Dec US T-Bonds(CBT) Dec 2-5-10 Year T-Notes(CBT) Dec Wheat(CBT) LT: Nov Fed Funds(CBT) Dec Unleaded Gas(NYM) Dec Heating Oil(NYM) Nov Fed Funds Options(CBT) Nov Lumber Options(CME) |
| 12/01 Thu |
7:30 AM CST - Personal Income & Personal Spending(Oct)
7:30 AM CST - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CST - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:00 AM CST - Construction Spending(Oct) 9:00 AM CST - ISM Index(Nov) 3:30 PM CST - Money Supply Auto & Truck Sales |
FN: Dec Palladium(NYM)
|
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!